Somalia's Next Leader To Inherit Nation Mired In Crisis

Nairobi, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 14th May, 2022 ) :A violent Islamist insurgency, looming famine, political chaos, and a threadbare economy in tatters -- these major crises and more await whoever wins Sunday's fraught and long-overdue presidential election in Somalia.

The troubled Horn of Africa country was supposed to choose a new leader in February 2021 but missed the deadline as Somalia's political leaders squabbled over the election process.

The impasse turned violent when President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, better known by his nickname Farmajo, extended his term in what opponents decried as an unconstitutional power grab.

The president appointed his prime minister to arrange a fresh vote but the task drove a wedge between the two men, putting the vote even further out of reach.

The crisis paralysed the government at a time when stability was badly needed to confront the burning challenges at hand, analysts said.

"It's really been a lost year for Somalia," said Omar Mahmood, an analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank.

"This long-awaited election has been divisive. Reconciliation is the most immediate challenge.

"It's hard to move forward with some of the technical work... that requires a level of cooperation if you don't have that sort of healing and common vision from the start." Farmajo's presidency has exacerbated tensions between the central government and some states, most notably Jubaland, and there have been violent clashes between their respective forces.

The president has been accused of using Somalia's security forces to further his political ambitions.

Samira Gaid, executive director of the Mogadishu-based Hiraal Institute think tank, said divisions within their ranks would also need to be resolved.

The next president confronts a familiar threat that has dogged successive governments for over a decade -- a deadly and persistent insurgency by the Al-Shabaab militant group.

In March, the United Nations renewed the mandate of a 20,000-strong African Union force that has been on the ground since 2007 to support the foreign-backed government in confronting the Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists.

The reconfigured mission, dubbed ATMIS, calls for a more offensive strategy than in recent years with the goal of gradually reducing troop numbers to zero by the close of 2024.

Gaid said a new president might consider renegotiating aspects of an agreement signed by Farmajo "at a time where the Somali leadership was not really focused on security imperatives".

Somalia's international backers have warned that prolonged infighting over the election has distracted from the threat of Al-Shabaab, which has consolidated its rural territory and in recent months stepped up attacks.

Mahmood said a new leader could also consider a more political approach to tackling the Islamists, and perhaps even set the mood for any possible dialogue with them.

"How a new administration signals about that, the tone it presents, is very important early on," he said.

"Even if Al-Shabaab isn't ready right now, it's sort of opening up a channel... to lay the groundwork" for any dialogue.