Speakers At An Int'l Conference Deliberate On Elements Of Strategic Coercion

ISLAMABAD, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 23rd Jan, 2019 ) :Speakers at an international conference on Wednesday deliberated on the elements of strategic coercion and highlighted key areas, which they said were of high importance for policy makers.

The one-day conference titled, "Instruments of Strategic Coercion: Theories and Implications" was organized by Pakistan House here at a local hotel.

"The harsh reality of power is as old as humanity, and the application of force, as a manifestation of power, is a common element in international relations," said General Ehsan Ul Haq (Retd), former Chairman Joint Chief of Staff Committee while speaking on the occasion.

He said that the art of state craft, diplomacy, and war had been deeply connected, leading to politico-diplomatic strategies that could avoid conflicts. Describing the elements of strategic coercion, he said that first and foremost element of strategic coercion was offensive diplomacy, which was done to isolate a nation strategically.

This is characterized by specific demands, a timeframe for making demands, and threats of consequences in case of non-cooperation. Apart from this an information onslaught is directed to influence the global audiences, and influential segments in the targeted society, in order to propagate the demands being made, he added. He said that it was unfortunate that Pakistan, who had been a victim of the situation in Afghanistan was being propagated as perpetrator.

The second element of strategic coercion, he said, was the use of economic sanctions against a targeted nation. In addition to previous elements, coercion is also seen through intelligence and subversive operations, and in our situation it relates to physically targeting China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which we describe as the game changer.

He mentioned some key areas, which are of highly importance to policy makers: Understanding the emerging scenario; effective consultation and decision-making at the national level; economic self-sustenance, and proactive foreign policy. He was of the view that nations were not coerced, but leadership and government functionaries were coerced, therefore, it was necessary for them to draw strength from popular support.

Adrian Levy, a journalist specializing in Foreign Affairs and South East Asia speaking on the occasion said that disinformation, misinformation and conspiracy were obviously the first things which came to mind while thinking of strategic coercion. The second instrument linked to the first, is a delivery mechanism-Twitter and Whatsapp- where polarized societies, vested interest group, nation states and opinionated play.

Tariq Rauf, former head of the Verification and Security Policy Coordination Office at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that one definition of strategic coercion or coercive diplomacy was that of "getting the adversary to act a certain way via anything short of brute force; the adversary must still have the capacity of organized violence but choose not to exercise it".

He highlighted four variants of strategic coercion: first, try and see; second, classic ultimatum; third, tacit ultimatum; and last, increasing pressure.

Lt Gen Asif Yaseen Malik (Retd), former Defence Secretary, said that the mantra of "doing more" was widely used by CIA and not by US Department of State during his tenure as Corps Commander Peshawar, and the reason for this was that they knew that Pakistan was doing enough. He said in aftermath of World War-II, after defeating Germany and Japan, the US started to police other states. This was seen in Libya, Iraq, and presently it is being observed in Syria. Libya had a strong welfare system, but now it is a stronghold of terrorist organization; on Iraq, it is being accepted by Trump himself that no matter how bad Saddam was, still he was managing Iraq better than it is being managed now, he added.

He said that Pakistan had been the longest target of strategic coercion in the present World.

Ambassador Salman Bashir (Retd), former Foreign Secretary said that an academic discussion on strategic coercion was important to assess the situation that Pakistan was facing. He was of view that although Pakistan had an important role to play in stabilizing Afghanistan, yet it could not pressurize Taliban. He said the approach of US State Department on focusing entirely on national reconciliation without considering the economic factors must be changed. "It is important to give all stakeholders, something for livelihood. That is the first thing which must be done for peaceful settlement in Afghanistan," he added.

Dr Shabana Fayyaz, Assistant Professor at Department of Strategic Studies, Quaid-i-Azam University, discussed the theoretical aspects of strategic coercion. She suggested some models to counter strategic coercion, "Counter-Coercion Diplomacy Model" (CCDM). The essence of this model is to avoid war and make peace through engagement with the coercer; and SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threat) assessment. In order to deal with strategic coercion it is of highly importance to diversify the support base bilaterally, regionally, and globally. For this purpose the role of leadership is critical," she maintained.

Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder (Retd), the distinguished visiting Fellow, NDU, opined that the instruments of strategic coercion that had been deployed by US were well known. Whereas, the various instruments of strategic coercion that have been deployed by India are important to discuss.

India's pressure is most directly exercise along the Line of Control (LOC) through frequent flare-ups and cease fire violations, he said. He said India continued its policy to malign Pakistan's image globally. To resist strategic coercion we must increase our relevance in the region and beyond. Secondly, our national priority must be to make space in the next five seven years to internally consolidate, to educate and train our youth and to grow our economy to ensure it provides us the strength which we now lack, he said.

Ambassador Zamir Akram (Retd), said that sanctions were key tool of coercive diplomacy, which might be economic, trade, and military sanctions. "Out of bilateral and multilateral sanctions, multilateral sanctions are more effective. Pakistan has been targeted with sanctions many times in its history under coercive diplomacy such as Symington, Glenn, Solarz, Pressler Amendment sanctions and cancellation of reprocessing plant from France," he said.

Dr Ashfaque Hassan Khan, Principle & Dean school of Social Sciences & Humanities, NUST was of opinion that inter-state war was on the decline. The concept of hybrid warfare has gained traction since 2005. Hybrid warfare is now being utilized to achieve political objectives that are not possible through direct military conflict, he remarked.

He said that all the elements of hybrid warfare had been unleashed on Pakistan with differing intensity for the last one decade and it was the responsibility of policy makers to counter the hybrid threat.

Rana Athar Javed, Director General, Pakistan House said that the theme under discussion was very important not only for Pakistan, but International powers. Pakistan despite being a target of strategic coercion has remained resilient to all the international pressure. It has remained neutral in middle Eastern Conflicts, and is playing a vital rolein stability of Afghanistan, he said.