Nigerian Opposition Presidential Candidate Likely To Win Yet No Shift In Policies Expected

Incumbent Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari's main rival, Atiku Abubakar, is likely to secure a victory in the upcoming presidential election, however voters will hardly see any ideological shifts under the new leadership, experts told Sputnik.

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 22nd February, 2019) Incumbent Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari's main rival, Atiku Abubakar, is likely to secure a victory in the upcoming presidential election, however voters will hardly see any ideological shifts under the new leadership, experts told Sputnik.

Nigerians were initially expected to go to the polls to elect a new president, vice president and members of the bicameral National Assembly on February 16. However, just hours before the scheduled opening of polling stations, the country's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) postponed the vote for a week, citing challenges to maintaining the quality of the vote.

Buhari, 76, who has been ruling Nigeria since 2015, is expected to face a tight competition from main opposition candidate Abubakar, 72, a businessman and former vice president.

The incumbent leader, who also served as the country's president between 1983 and 1985 after taking power in a military coup, became the first Nigerian presidential candidate to oust his predecessor through election in 2015.

His tenure was accompanied by great expectations since he portrayed himself as a "converted democrat." The opposition, however, accuses him of failing to properly address the country's economic woes � which were to a great extent triggered by falling oil prices � and focusing his anti-corruption fight on its members.

OPPOSITION BENEFITS FROM VOTE DELAY

According to Dr. Sylvester Akhaine, the head of the department of political science at Lagos State University, "an outright victory is unlikely for the incumbent" provided that "the process does not run into another booby trap."

"The incumbent president does not enjoy nation-wide popularity anymore. The postponement is seen as a contrivance of the ruling party despite the ostensible condemnation of INEC. The development has incensed a lot of the voters to the benefit of the opposition parties, especially PDP [the People's Democratic Party presented by Abubakar]," Akhaine told Sputnik.

Akhaine, however, said that despite the fact that the Nigerian presidency might be one of "the most powerful in the world," with the legislature "yet to assume the guts of our democracy," there was agitation for more functional federalism, a "growing perception of non-performance by the incumbent president" and a desire to see a new leadership shared by a "wide segment of the population."

Dr. Olugbemiga Samuel Afolabi, a professor of political science at Obafemi Awolowo University, agreed that the vote's postponement will likely play into the opposition's hands, yet noted that the outcome was not predetermined.

"The opposition party and its candidate is likely to benefit from the postponement as large segment of the population believes it shows the government/ruling party is unorganized and full of complaints ... The postponement presents bad optics for the government/ruling party, and to that extent it might affect it chances. But it is not a given. In politics, anything can happen," he told Sputnik.

According to Afolabi, the current situation � when both the ruling party and the opposition have been alleging that the other side plans to rig the election � is exacerbated by "the perception that the present government has not lived up to expectations and has not fulfilled the promise it made in 2015.

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A week postponement of the vote, in general, "is too short" to address all fraud challenges, the expert went on, adding that vote rigging was "not limited to any particular political party" and could be only rooted out when INEC "becomes truly independent in terms of appointment and funding."

When asked whether the opposition candidate's victory could bring about some serious shifts in Nigeria's policies, Afolabi expressed doubt that one could expect such, citing similarity of views of the two frontrunners.

"There won't be any ideological change if Atiku wins. Both belong to the same elite group and are ideological soul mates. It is going to be the continuation of the present difficulties the country is in. Don't forget there were in the same party until recently. So nothing changes," he opined.

Akhaine similarly voiced belief that the opposition's victory would bring about no fundamental changes, adding that both politicians advocated for neoliberal economic approaches.

"The current government has no clear-cut ideology. What we can surmise from their policies is that they are running a cluster of neoliberal policies. Atiku Abubakar boasts about being the arch-angel of privatisation and wishes to continue that policy if elected. In essence, no ideological difference but maybe we can expect a more inclusive government," Akhaine said.

The upcoming elections, meanwhile, are significant also due to the fact that Nigeria, with some 193 million people, is the most populated country in Africa and currently sees an unprecedented growth of registered voters.

"Regarding the huge voter's roll, the desperation of contestants has meant a push for registration by the un-captured citizenry to improve their electoral fortune. More importantly, the youth population has also increased and many are voting for the first time bringing the tally of new registrants to about 14.5 million and overall of 84.2 million voters," Akhaine said.

Afolabi, in turn, singled out a wide range of factors contributing to the rise in the number of registered voters � from the rampantly growing young population to stronger voter awareness due to digital technology and simpler register procedures.

"First, many have registered to vote and many are now conscious of the power of their vote. Second, Nigeria has high population of young adults, specifically between 18 and 35. So many are registering. Third, the drive to harvest votes from each party stronghold is also a contributory factor. Fourth, the spread of social media and its effect can be seen in the high number of registered voters. And lastly, the process of registering has been made simple so that many more could register," he suggested.

According to the expert, the upcoming presidential vote may be also decisive as it can prove that that the country's electoral system � which produced the elected president from the opposition in 2015 � was "maturing" and turning into a contest "based on performance."