ANALYSIS - EU Can Play Crucial Role In Restoring JCPOA By Bringing US, Iran Together

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 24th February, 2021) Despite Iran continuing its uranium enrichment operations there is still an opportunity for Tehran to reach a rapprochement with Washington regarding the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under the auspices of the European Union, analysts told Sputnik.

Iran is currently pressing ahead with upgrading its uranium enrichment capabilities at two facilities as the US has yet to lift the sanctions past Tehran's deadline, government spokesman Ali Rabiei said on Tuesday. At the same time, according to Iran Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Tehran is considering the EU proposal to hold an informal meeting between the co-signers of the 2015 JCPOA, including the United States. As things are now, the two sides are currently in a bind with neither one willing to take the first step toward reconciliation on the issue.

TEHRAN PRESSURES WASHINGTON WHILE BOTH FACE OPPOSITION AT HOME

Marc Finaud, the head of arms proliferation at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, described Tehran's measures as "gradual, calibrated, easily reversible" aimed to respond to the previous US administration's withdrawal from the deal.

"The expectation was that this form of escalation would in particular expert pressure on the other JCPOA members to convince the US to lift its sanctions. This approach has demonstrated the failure of [ex-President Donald] Trump's 'maximum pressure' policy but now it should stop since Biden is committed to re-enter the JCPOA and lift sanctions," Finaud said.

Nevertheless, while the Iranian government would like to see the US side recommit to the deal, but its own internal issues could potentially derail the whole process, Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation, said.

"The government, which favors a return to the JCPOA, faces stiff pressure from inside the country and is barely holding its line: there is a lot of pressure inside Iran to completely break with the JCPOA, a line that eventually could result in Iran acquiring significant amounts of weapons-grade uranium," the expert thinks.

Sokov went on to state that if the US does not clearly state its intention to return to the JCPOA, the pressure at home may prove too much for both sides to handle.

"Unfortunately, the [President Joe] Biden administration also faces serious pressure inside the United States and, moreover, appears divided on the issue," the analyst continued.

M. V. Ramana, the Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human Security at the school of Public Policy and Global Affairs and the director of the Liu Institute for Global Issues at the University of British Columbia, is of a similar opinion.

"Unfortunately, there are probably pressures on the Biden Administration not to do so. In the meanwhile, the stakes are becoming greater. It is difficult to predict what will happen but one has to hope that the meeting proposed by the EU will succeed in allowing some compromise to be reached," Ramana said.

In light of both the US and Iran feeling having to face both internal tensions on the matter as well as each other, a need for a third party mediation becomes more pressing than ever.

"EU can play a crucial role here. From a purely practical, tactical point of view, the most difficult issue is to get Iran and the United States to sit down and discuss the procedure for the return to the JCPOA; the procedure must address the challenges both governments face in their respective countries," Sokov opined, adding that an informal meeting involving other co-signers may be the way to go.

Finaud stressed the role of three European countries, France, Germany and the United Kingdom, in brokering the original deal, noting that the EU itself is a party to the agreement, as well as the chair of the Joint Commission.

"Both Iran and the US, even if they are keen to avoid appearing as making concessions, understand that the return to full compliance with the JCPOA by both sides can only occur with the mediation of the EU that both sides trust for coordinating the sequencing. Recent informal talks and confidence-building measures by both the US and Iran do pave the way to a successful solution," Finaud observed.

Both experts remarked that the possibility for the EU or any other remaining JCPOA participant persuading Tehran and Washington to come together and sort out their differences is indeed plausible, as both sides understand that it is in their interest.

"The EU and other members (Russia and China) could help in the most delicate part of the effort - bringing the parties to the table and helping them reach an agreement. There is a good chance the JCPOA can be restored; extending its term could perhaps increase the chances of success," Sokov said.

Meanwhile, Finaud mentioned good recovery opportunities stemming from the sides burying the hatchet.

"All parties, not only the US and Iran, can also expect positive consequences of sanctions relief and a resulting boost of trade and investment," the expert predicted.