ANALYSIS - Israeli Parties In Deadlock Over Coalition Government Following Snap Elections

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 20th September, 2019) As Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and opposition Blue and White political alliance find themselves in a deadlock over the formation of a ruling coalition, it is Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, who may hold keys to the resolution, experts told Sputnik.

On Tuesday, Israel held a general election to its 120-seat unicameral parliament, the Knesset. According to official election results released on Wednesday after 98 percent of the vote were counted, the centrist Blue and White alliance has secured 32 seats, while Netanyahu's right-wing party won 31. A total of 61 seats is needed to secure a parliamentary majority. Leader of Blue and White Benny Gantz has called for a unity government, but ruled out sitting in a government with Netanyahu while the prime minister faced corruption charges, for which a pre-indictment hearing is set for October 2-3.

The final results of the election will be presented to Israeli President Reuven Rivlin on September 25. The president will meet with the leaders of the parties elected to parliament to discuss the nominee for the office of prime minister. After the nominee is chosen, he will have 42 days to form a viable coalition.

Since no party in the history of Israel alone had an absolute parliamentary majority, the election victory depends not only on its own electoral weight, but also on the presence of allies ready to join the coalition or provide extra-coalition support.

A potential right-wing coalition led by Likud could control up to 57 seats, while an opposition coalition helmed by Blue and White could gain no more than 58 seats. It means that both leading political forces are falling short of the 61 seats needed for a governing majority.

In such conditions, the Nationalist secular Yisrael Beiteinu party, which may receive 8-10 seats in the parliament, may decide the fate of the future government. Lieberman himself is called by Israeli media a possible "kingmaker" in this parliamentary election.

Lieberman, who used to be part of Netanyahu's team, has once again outgunned the prime minister also known as "King Bibi" among his supporters. The leader of Likud decided to call for snap elections in late May after failing to form a coalition due to Lieberman's unwillingness to make concessions to religious parties which Netanyahu planned to include in the coalition. One of the points of disagreement between "the King Bibi" and "the kingmaker" concerned, particularly, the issue of conscription of Jewish seminary students for military service.

"Winning the election is not sufficient ... While the potential block of Blue and White is bigger and the block for the right is smaller, nevertheless, both of them do not reach the magic number. Self-proclaimed and media-proclaimed kingmaker is Lieberman. Lieberman stands in the middle, he won eight seats, according to the most recent polls so he can go with either - that is why he is the kingmaker," Moran Stern, an adjunct lecturer at the Program for Jewish Civilization in Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh school of Foreign Service, told Sputnik.

The expert noted that "the deadlock is not only number-wise" as Lieberman insists that he will enter a coalition with both Blue and White and Likud, but without the Arab, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, which may prove to be problematic since Netanyahu has a historic alliance with the latter.

"In Israel, as polls indicate, most people are interested in a national unity government. The thing is that Blue and White condition such a unity government on Likud without Netanyahu as Netanyahu had alp legal cases. Likud says no to government without Netanyahu. So we have a deadlock right now, seems like a zero sum game to every possible direction," Stern underlined.

At the same time, Abraham Bell, a professor of law at the law schools of Bar Ilan University and University of San Diego, in his comments to Sputnik opined that the Yisrael Beiteinu will most likely end up being excluded from the coalition despite the high stakes.

"As things stand, the most likely scenario appears to be a Likud -Blue and White coalition that excludes Yisrael Beytenu. There are low-probability scenarios of a Likud-led coalition that includes the Labor party, a change in heart of Avigdor Liberman that leads to Yisrael Beytenu joining a Likud-led coalition, or a third round of elections. The scenario of a coalition led by Blue and White is an improbable one," the professor said.

As an alliance of four Arab parties � the Joint List � is expected to be the third largest force in the Knesset with 12-13 seats, it may grow its political wight and benefit from the fragile position that the leading Jewish parties have found themselves in.

"The question of the Arab Joint List is very interesting. They are a key political actor that have the numbers that demand attention. They are now the third largest party in Israel. They might be even for the first time leaders of the opposition. They might even be a part of the government one way or another since we don't know how this whole thing will end. But it has to do a lot with what they will do with this achievement," Stern said.

The Joint List might gain more political power if it starts cooperating with the Zionist movement, according to Bell.

"The place of Arab parties in Israeli politics is only likely to change when the Arab parties are ready to cooperate with the Jewish self-determination movement known as Zionism. There are signs that the Joint Arab List may be ready to begin undertaking such a change, which would constitute a watershed in Israeli politics. But the size of the Joint List will not affect matters; returns so far suggest that the Joint List will not surpass its March 2015 showing of 13 seats," the professor of law at the law schools of Bar Ilan University and University of San Diego opined.

The voting outcome for the Arab parties has been lauded by many as a success because it was achieved against the background of Netanyahu's jabs at Arab voters, which saw him calling on his supports to "go and vote, otherwise we will get the left-wing government with the Arab parties!" The prime minister also vowed to establish Israel's sovereignty over the Jordan Valley, sparking harsh criticism from the Arab World.