ANALYSIS - Moscow Security Guarantees Proposals Can Pave Way To New US-Russia Strategic Agreements

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 21st December, 2021) Moscow's proposed security guarantees may pave the way for future strategic agreements between Russia and the United States but many hurdles remain to be overcome, experts have told Sputnik.

On December 17, Moscow presented draft agreements between Russia, the United States and NATO on security guarantees, which, if agreed to, would prevent NATO from expanding eastwards and prohibit the US and Russia from stationing intermediate and shorter-range ballistic missiles within striking distance of each other's territory, among other things. According to German Foreign Minister Christine Lambrecht, the alliance will discuss them this week.

The reactions to the proposals have so far been mixed, with some, like UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, welcoming a dialogue on the new security arrangements, while others, like the European Union, haven't shown much enthusiasm, suggesting using already-existing formats. Meanwhile, Washington is yet to respond to the proposals, according to Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov.

When commenting on the Russian initiative last week, Ryabkov said last week that Moscow was ready to begin the talks about the proposals as early as possible. However, even if all of the relevant parties, including the US, come together at the negotiating table, it is unclear, how it will go, since Russia's demands are too one-sided, the experts said.

"At best they provide an opening position from one side in a complex negotiation," Thomas Shea, an adjunct senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, stated, expressing his belief that these proposals absolutely "could become a basis for new agreements on arms control between Russia, the US and NATO."

The expert went on to suggest what a possible end result would look like. Among its points were Ukraine adopting a new constitution that enshrines permanent neutrality, all parties involved concluding a framework treaty.

A hypothetical treaty should cover land exchanges, financial payments and provision of commodities, as well as demilitarized zones between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. Shea envisions such a treaty to be monitored by the UN Security Council "under the consideration that P5 vetoes would not be permitted in relation to any matter arising from the framework treaty."

"At a minimum, Russia and the United States should become parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), on the condition that the two would pursue coordinated bilateral nuclear arms reductions following past experience, within the verification structure pursuant to the TPNW," Shea opined.

At the same time, Marc Finaud, the head of arms proliferation at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, told Sputnik that such measures must be applied to the two countries' conventional arsenals.

"It is high time to restore and update the conventional arms control and disarmament framework that has been suspended or has become obsolete. This would include the OSCE documents, the CFE Treaty, and the Open Skies Treaty.

The Russian proposals can indeed become part of this negotiation," Finaud said.

Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation, was skeptical about what results could be wrought by these proposals, adding that it could potentially slow down Ukraine's integration into NATO or at least slow down the US and NATO assistance to Kiev and the de facto expansion of their military presence into the Ukrainian territory.

"Russian proposals contain two elements that could be negotiable. One is the verifiable moratorium on deployment of theater-range missiles in Europe... The other is an agreement to discuss any new deployments that may be seen by the other side as threatening, " Sokov admitted, adding that "this would be very desirable and hopefully US/NATO will agree to start these discussions."

Still, in order to reach any result, a process has to be initiated first, which has proven to be an uneasy undertaking at the time of growing tensions and mounting distrust between the sides.

Finaud noted that both Russia and the US feel threatened by each other, which demonstrates the importance of strategic dialogue between Moscow and the West.

"Some measures are needed to restore confidence, prevent escalation, avoid military conflict. Some already exist, like the OSCE Vienna Document or similar confidence-building measures recommended by independent experts. Others need to be seriously examined and negotiated," Finaud said.

The expert did not rule out that the issues listed in the Russian proposal could be discussed at the US-Russian Strategic Stability Dialogue in Geneva, adding that Washington would need to consult with the NATO allies beforehand.

According to Professor Heinz Gartner, a lecturer for Political Science at the universities of Vienna and Krems, to reach the goals listed in the Russian proposals, would require the respective countries to decide domestically against NATO membership and the deployment of missiles, while Russia recognizes their the territorial integrity and sovereignty.

"The US will agree, if it recognizes that no NATO-membership and no deployment of missiles will not increase Russia's influence. There has to be Russian retrenchment at the same time. Both Russia and the US have to find a common ground to reduce their influence. They have to signal their willingness to retrench to each other," Gartner, who is also the chair of the Advisory Committee for Strategy and Security Policy of the Scientific Commission at the Austrian Armed Forces, stated.

Meanwhile, Sokov is concerned that it would amount to nothing, citing previous attempts at building mutually beneficial relations between NATO and Russia, such as the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act and the 2002 Russia-NATO summit.

"Is there a chance now a new attempt will be more successful? The need is urgent, in principle it is possible. I am afraid, however, that some members of NATO (UK, Poland and the Baltic states, first of all) will block progress," Sokov warned.