ANALYSIS - US Security State To Ensure Trump Fails To Improve Relations With Russia Over Next 2 Years

WASHINGTON (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 20th January, 2019) US President Donald Trump during his first two years in office has utterly failed to deliver on his campaign promise to improve relations with Russia, and he is unlikely to do so by the end of his first term because the security state, the mainstream media, and most members of Congress will not let him, analysts told Sputnik.

Sunday officially marks the midway point of Trump's four-year presidential term - one that began with high hopes in Moscow that a political outsider could help reshape US policy towards Russia. However, instead, some argue that US-Russian relations are now at an all-time low after two years of escalating tensions over political, diplomatic and global security issues.

Trump on the campaign trail repeatedly claimed he intended to improve relations with Moscow and to work with Russia on defeating the Islamic State terrorist group (banned in Russia). However, it is hard to identify a single tangible example of how US-Russian relations under Trump have improved.

Washington and Moscow have clashed over the conflict in Ukraine, alleged election meddling in the United States (which Russia entirely denies), US withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and the poisoning of former double agent Sergei Skripal in the United Kingdom, to name just a few of the main issues.

The United States has imposed several rounds of sanctions on Moscow, many of them self-described by the White House as "draconian," designed to inflict damage on Russia's economy, especially in industrial sectors like defense and energy.

Professor Edward Lozansky, President of the American University in Moscow and Director of the Russia House in Washington told Sputnik that the list of Trump's actions to hurt Russia is long but the political establishment has ignored them because they counter the narrative that he colluded with Moscow to get elected in 2016.

"He [Trump] takes part in building NATO forces on the Russian border in the Baltic states, approves the new damaging anti-Russia sanctions, while rejecting Exxon Mobil bid for waiver, tries to block Nord stream 2 gas pipeline to Europe, gives green light to selling lethal arms to Ukraine, expels 60 Russian diplomats, closes Seattle consulate and Washington Trade Mission, withdrawing from nuclear arms treaty with Russia and condemns 'outrageous' Russian firing on Ukrainian ships," Lozansky noted.

Although the president has been tough on Russia he has also tried to take some steps towards rapprochement. However, the US media, the Justice Department and/or congressional lawmakers have orchestrated actions to sabotage such efforts.

"This list can be substantially extended but it would make absolutely no difference for the 'deep state' working in close tandem with 'fake news' media... are committed to removing Trump from the White House," Lozansky added.

One of the more notable examples of sabotage was the timing of the indictments against Russian intelligence officers ahead of Trump's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki last summer.

Trump also canceled his planned meeting with Putin on the sidelines of the G- 20 summit in Argentina from November 30 to December 1 after Ukraine provoked a major incident by sending ships through Russian territorial waters in the Kerch Strait. Trump's national security adviser, John Bolton, was suspected of having helped coordinate the stunt.

California State University Chico Emeritus Professor of Political Science Beau Grosscup agreed forces were colluding to undermine Trump's original peace agenda and explained how Special Counsel Robert Mueller's office is well-armed to collaborate with the media to accomplish this.

"There is enough evidence of Russian meddling/intelligence activity in the US that these kinds of accusations real or not can be made for public consumption knowing full well there is not a chance of conviction," the professor told Sputnik.

Part of the narrative not only targets Trump but is meant to demonize Russia at the same time, Grosscup pointed out.

This also serves the additional objective to garner public and public institutional support for moving to a new "image of the aggressor" to replace non-state terrorism.

Eurasia Center Vice President Earl Rasmussen told Sputnik false flag operations and leaks of information from intelligence agencies and members of Congress were certainly impeccably timed including the charges against Russian intelligence officials.

"The mysterious evidence-free indictments were timed to scuttle his [Trump's] initiatives," Rasmussen said. "I believe that often in geopolitics there are no accidents, no coincidences."

Despite all the difficulties over the past two years some US and Russian officials have said they are still committed to improving the relationship. However, Trump may be even more hampered over the next 2 years given the result of the US midterm elections that gave the opposition Democrats control of the House of Representatives, many of whom want to start impeachment proceedings against the president.

Grosscup made clear that going forward the chances are very slim Trump will be able to improve ties with Moscow because the US National Security State (NSS) is difficult to defeat.

"Overall, the history of post-World War II is one in which the NSS never loses," Grosscup said. "They may at times have to make a 'tactical retreat' but since the 'image of the aggressor' is a constant and effective tool... Trump will be at odds with NSS imagery/policy."

However, Grosscup said one could not predict that Trump would just surrender since he has been willing to alienate key NSS institutions - including the FBI, CIA and the Pentagon - evidenced by decisions like exiting Syria and threatening to leave NATO.

Global Policy Institute President and BAU International University Professor of International Affairs Paolo von Schirach told Sputnik that it will be hard to develop a broader bilateral agenda with Russia because of the cloud created by the lengthy Mueller investigation.

"Should Mueller conclude that there is nothing, or very little there, then this could give impetus to improved relations between Moscow and Washington," Schirach said. "If serious allegations come up, then a difficult situation will get much worse."

Rasmussen said whether one agrees with Trump or not unlike most politicians he is trying to follow through with items that he clearly articulated during his campaign. However, the forces opposed to Trump, including many officials he had naively and unwisely appointed himself remain determined to block him. Not to mention his political opponents will try to impeach him.

"I am concerned that his opponents no longer care for the country but rather their focus is to attack Trump," Rasmussen said. "While there have been calls for impeachment, I think this would be very dangerous for those supporting this action and I think would further fragment the country."

The president will likely not fulfill many of his promises - but not for lack of trying, Rasmussen added.

"He will be hounded by the opposition, the Great Russian-Hoax, never-ending Mueller investigation and by the media," Rasmussen said. "He must walk cautiously."

Lozansky argued that, despite all the limitations, the US president must take the initiative.

"The only way for Trump to present his historical legacy in a positive way and at the same time save the world from nuclear holocaust is to trust his instincts, pursue the foreign policy agenda expressed during the election campaign and in the inauguration speech and ignore the neocon/neoliberal establishment instead of trying to please it," he said.

Besides, Trump owed the people who voted him into office in 2016 to carry out the peace agenda he promised, the American University in Moscow founder said.

Above all the onus ultimately falls on the US president, Lozansky concluded, and so far - unfortunately - Trump's anti-Russian policies have spoken louder than his words.