'Bolsonarism' Faces 1st Ballot Box Test In Brazil's Municipal Elections

Although there are still months until the November municipal elections in Brazil, the country's political world is gearing up for action, which will serve as a good thermometer to gauge the rule of President Jair Bolsonaro and see if the Brazilian left has learned anything from its defeat in 2018

RIO DE JANEIRO (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 30th July, 2020) Although there are still months until the November municipal elections in Brazil, the country's political world is gearing up for action, which will serve as a good thermometer to gauge the rule of President Jair Bolsonaro and see if the Brazilian left has learned anything from its defeat in 2018.

From the very beginning, the task of figuring out if the ruling right wing forces will once again prove themselves at the ballot box is not an easy one since Bolsonaro currently remains unaffiliated with any political faction. The initiative to create a party in his own image, Alliance for Brazil, did not make it in time for the election, so it will have to appoint a different candidate for each city on a case by case basis.

"Bolsonarism is very much a personality-based movement, and Bolsonaro has never been a party man. If he had a party structure, he would be in a much better position (he would have more resources and advertising time, for example), but the good part is that by going it alone he does not need to cede nothing to no one and does not have to deal with negative things, which being a member of a party sometimes brings, such as emerging corruption cases," Graziella Testa, a Ph.D. in Political Science and a professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, told Sputnik.

The situation remains in flux, and alliances are not set in stone. In Sao Paulo, for example, various allies of the president expect to launch their candidacies fro the mayor's office. In Rio de Janeiro, however, the Bolsonaro family has thrown their weight behind Marcelo Crivella, a very conservative Evangelical bishop at the Universal Church of God's Kingdom.

Regarding the country's left, there is no indication that a famous "broad front," which many voters clamored for to unite the left-wing forces and defeat Bolsonaro two years ago, would come together. The key progressive parties, the Workers Party (PT), the Socialism and Liberty Party (PSOL), or the Democratic Labour Party (PDT), are going it alone and fighting with each other.

The 2018 controversy when PDT candidate Ciro Gomes, who was very critical of former President Lula de Silva, refused to actively campaign for his political protege from the PT, Fernando Haddad, in the second round, is still alive and kicking.

Some think this will help Bolsonaro to win. The supporters of Gomez, on their part, think that the PT succumbed to ambition and should have supported Gomes from the beginning as he was allegedly the only one who could challenge Bolsonaro.

These wounds, inflicted largely because of the clash of personalities between de Silva and Gomes, have not been healed and until they do, it will be impossible to unite the left in Brazil, according to Testa, who notes the continuing importance of the former president.

"Everyone asked Lula to give it up, but Lula said: 'I bring votes,'" the professor said, adding that de Silva wants to raise his political profile.

In any case, there are always very loud voices asking to put aside the differences and seek common ground. One of them is the governor of the northern state of Maranhao, Flavio Dino, from the Communist Party of Brazil. Recently, he proposed forming a grand center-left coalition, already sounding like a 2022 presidential hopeful. Nevertheless, professor Testa doubts in his capacity to expand his influence.

What is clear enough is that the elections will depend a great deal on the course of the COVID-19 epidemic. As of now, the pandemic has already caused the elections to be postponed for a month. The way mayors have acted during the health crisis will be a decisive factor, Testa says.

The difficulties with conducting a street-level campaign will undermine new candidates and favor those who are already familiar with the electorate. The current mayors, for example, have the advantage of being in the center of media attention for months. Case in point, Sao Paulo Mayor Bruno Covas, from the center-right Brazilian Social Democracy Party, who was not particularly well-known until the recent months and has been strengthened by the COVID-19 crisis.

"Initially, we saw that not only the mayors' approval but also the governors' increased. Then it weakened a bit. It will depend quite strongly on the economy and how long the government provides emergency assistance, first and foremost in small towns, which very much depend on those subsidies," Testa said.

These factors in mind, it is safe to say that the upcoming elections will help determine Brazil's political landscape, potentially serving as a prelude for the next presidential election.