Netanyahu, Lieberman Bargaining To Likely Yield Coalition Deal Only At Last Minute

The stalemate in the Israel government talks, prompted by the high-stakes negotiations between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the right-wing Likud party, and Avigdor Lieberman, the ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beytenu Party leader, will likely end with a deal at the very last moment before the Wednesday deadline rather than new elections

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 27th May, 2019) The stalemate in the Israel government talks, prompted by the high-stakes negotiations between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the leader of the right-wing Likud party, and Avigdor Lieberman, the ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beytenu Party leader, will likely end with a deal at the very last moment before the Wednesday deadline rather than new elections.

Netanyahu has so far failed to finish coalition talks with right-wing and religious parties within the 28 days that he had initially been given by President Reuven Rivlin on April 19 after Likud won Israel's parliamentary elections. The prime minister has already requested an extension until May 29 so that he may finish the negotiations.

On Sunday, Likud legislator and Netanyahu ally Miki Zohar tweeted the draft of a bill to dissolve Israel's parliament, which would result in new elections in the country, while Netanyahu said that he was making final efforts to form a new right-wing government.

Despite the threats of a new vote, the sides are likely to cut a deal at the very last moment before the Wednesday deadline, Gideon Rahat, professor of Political Science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, said in his comments to Sputnik.

"It is about bargaining, I would not be surprised if they will find the solution in the last minutes. It is just that Lieberman is showing his muscles and trying to get as much as he can in order to gain credits," Rahat said.

Most, including Lieberman himself, point to the conscription bill that would exempt ultra-Orthodox Jewish seminary students from military service as the key area of disagreement between Yisrael Beytenu and ultra-Orthodox parties within Netanyahu's coalition.

However, the main reason for the stalemate could be the fight between Lieberman and Netanyahu for the position of defense minister, Moran Stern, an adjunct lecturer at the Program for Jewish Civilization in Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh school of Foreign Service, told Sputnik.

Lieberman served as defense minister from 2016 until his resignation in November 2018 over a ceasefire with Hamas. Netanyahu took over his duties as a result, and has been carrying them out ever since.

"He [Lieberman] wants to be the next defense minister, the position he took before. However, Netanyahu does not like anyone who challenges him and anyone who challenges him particularly on the security issue," Stern said.

The expert noted that Lieberman was also likely to demand greater autonomy from Netanyahu as he went through "the seven gates of hell" during his tenure as defense minister. The former minister would seek more freedom particularly on the issues around the Gaza Strip and the Hamas movement that de facto runs the enclave, he added.

"He wants a blank check over Hamas and Gaza to do everything he deems necessary, including toppling or trying to topple Hamas in the Gaza Strip under his position as minister of defense," Stern said.

The expert noted, however, that Netanyahu was not likely to opt for this since it would not only threaten his image as "Mr. Security," but also might end with a massive use of force and casualties.

"The second demand, from what I understand about Lieberman, is for Netanyahu to allow him to be an acting prime minister in case that Netanyahu, for example, travels abroad and someone has to stay home. It has another implication - if Netanyahu will face a trail, this means that Lieberman will become the prime minister," Stern said, noting that the Israeli prime minister was unlikely to agree to that as well.

If the sides still do not manage to form a coalition government, there would be several options. One of them would be for Netanyahu to form a government of 60 members of the 120-seat parliament, which, according to Stern, would not be "feasible because it won't hold for long time."

The second option would be calling new elections, something nobody in the right wing wants, Rahat noted. Even though a poll conducted on Sunday by Ma'ariv showed that the right would get even more votes than in April, there were still many variables, according to the expert.

"The Arabs might or might not come to vote in larger numbers, which will help the left. Also, people might change the behavior. People might stay at homes because they will say 'I don't want to come to the elections again.' And the question, of course, which party will it affect," Rahat said.

The third option involves the Israeli president tasking somebody else with forming a government, with former army chief Benny Gantz and journalist-turned-politician Yair Lapid, who lead the left-wing Blue and White political alliance, being "the second obvious choice," according to Stern. The expert noted, however, that the two politicians were likely to fail in getting the support needed from right-wing parties to form the coalition.

"I believe that we will see some form of the government, it is difficult to tell how solid, but no one wants to go for the elections because no one knows how these elections are going to end," Stern concluded.

On April 9, the Likud party won 35 seats in the parliament, with parties from the right bloc securing a total of 65 seats. Without Yisrael Beytenu's five seats, Netanyahu's coalition falls one seat short of an absolute majority.

The opposition centrist Blue and White coalition won 35 seats.