PREVIEW - US President Trump To Begin Visit To Japan With Trade Deal, N. Korea, Iran In Focus

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 25th May, 2019) US President Donald Trump will begin his four-day visit to Japan on Saturday, with his schedule including an audience with the Asian nation's new emperor, a sumo competition, a helicopter carrier tour, a fancy dinner, as well as a golf round and talks with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The bilateral summit, which is expected to take place on Monday, is likely to address a wide range of bilateral and international issues, such as a long-pending trade deal, North Korea, and Iran.

The US president will become the first world leader to pay a state visit to Japan after the country entered into the Reiwa era under the new emperor. On Monday, Trump and his wife Melania will be received by Emperor Naruhito and Empress Masako at a special banquet at the imperial palace before their departure on the following day.

The president's schedule also includes the sumo tournament final on Sunday, where he will present a special trophy to the winner. Besides, Trump is expected to inspect the Izumo-class helicopter carrier due to be upgraded to host F-35B jet fighters. Apart from inviting the US president for a round of golf, the Japanese prime minister will also reportedly treat guests with an informal dinner at top-tier restaurant serving "robatayaki," meat, fish and vegetables grilled over hot charcoal.

GOLF INSTEAD OF HARSH TRADE TALKS

The United States is seeking to rebalance trade with its ally on a bilateral basis after leaving the multilateral deal on the Trans-Pacific partnership in 2017 while it was still in the pipeline. A month prior to his visit to Japan, Trump told reporters that the United States and Japan may close the bilateral trade agreement before his visit to Tokyo in May, but the deal is still pending.

In the run-up to the Tokyo summit, the two countries' top trade negotiators, Japanese Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy Toshimitsu Motegi and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, will meet in Tokyo on Saturday for trade talks.

Jim Schoff, a senior fellow in the Carnegie Asia Program focusing on the US-Japanese relations and regional engagement, told Sputnik that any announcements or visible progress in the trade negotiations should not be expected from the Tokyo summit.

"I think the one potential opportunity in this for Abe is to see if he can convenience Trump that the proposed auto tariffs are really not a productive way to go ... Abe will behind the scenes, I think, really� promote the value of the Japanese companies that have invested in the United States," Schoff, however, noted.

The expert expressed the concern that Trump might choose to publicly criticize Japan on trade, which would make the negotiations more difficult.

"So, it is possible that he could go what the Japanese would consider to be off-script in the sense, but ideally this will be a featured part of this particular meeting. We will see if they can make some quiet progress in the background to avoid more public disagreement on this front," he continued.

Ra Mason, a Sasakawa lecturer in international relations and Japanese foreign policy at the University of East Anglia, on the other hand, suggested that the upcoming meetings would avoid the sensitive issue, while focusing on creating an image of warm personal relations between the two leaders.

"What I imagine would happen - a pure speculation really - is that there would be kind of a common front presented, that this is being worked on in the best interests of both countries and that this based around the rules-based system and maintenance of the current global order, based on the mutual prioritization of liberal values and free trade," Mason told Sputnik.

The expert emphasized that it was hardly unlikely to see any "overt hardline" stances voiced by the two leaders, though Trump might say something different to his domestic audience once he returned to the United States.

"I think in terms of the actual summit itself and meetings themselves, the focus would be deliberately shifted off these tensions and it would be focused on things like golf. This is kind of stuff that makes it look like they are best buddies, there will be a lot of wearing caps and striking out at the golf course and patting each other on the back, and making it look like they have very close personal relationship," Mason said.

The expert pointed out that by doing so the two leaders would try to "paper over some of the very large and potentially widening cracks" in their policy.

With Trump expected to meet the families of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korean security services back in the 1970s-1980s during his visit to Tokyo, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is expected to take a central stage in the upcoming talks.

Abe remains the only leader of the country that took part in the six-party talks on North Korea, who has not held a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who had already met with Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, South Korean leader Moon Jae-in, and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Raising these issues at bilateral summit would be very important for Abe, who made the issue of returning the abductees to Japan one of cornerstones of his politics and distraction from domestic problems, according to Mason.

"Abe's domestic credibility rests partly in this area, on his ability both to take a hard line against North Korea and specifically to 'solve the abduction issue.' And this abduction issue is something that Abe since 2006 has essentially made his political career on," the expert said.

He added that Trump was likely to give Abe what he wanted by reiterating determination to raise the abduction issue at further meetings with Kim.

"Trump [is likely] to once again reiterate concerns over abductees and to show prime minister Abe and Japanese people that the abduction issue is not something that has been forgotten about, and it would continue to be on the table and highly-profiled as part of the negotiations with North Korea, and that abductees would not be forgotten," Mason said.

Schoff suggested that the two leaders were likely to reaffirm in their meetings the solidarity in keeping up pressure on North Korea, especially in the light of Pyongyang's recent short-range missile launches.

"If Kim and Abe have an opening, a chance to meet, I think Trump would support that, but I don't think he can effectively advocate for that or do anything that could help Abe per se," the expert added.

The tensions around Iran, following the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal and the imposition of sanctions last year, Tehran's subsequently discontinuation of some of its commitments under the agreement and military escalation between the two nations, could also be on the agenda of talks.

Last week, Abe received Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and voiced hope for the continued implementation of the Iran nuclear deal, reaffirming that Tokyo would maintain and develop friendly relations with Tehran. Some Japanese media outlets suggested after the meeting that Japan was planning to mediate in resolving the standoff between the United States and Iran.

The Kyodo news agency reported on Friday that Abe might go as far as visit Iran in June after discussing the matter with Trump. Kyodo also reported that the Japanese prime minister even held consultations regarding his possible visit to Tehran with US National Security Advisor John Bolton.

Schoff agreed that it seemed that Abe was waiting to make a decision on Iran after talks with Trump that might address the situation around the middle Eastern country.

"I personally tend to think that Trump himself would be supportive of that idea, the idea that maybe Abe would go to Iran and put in a good word for Trump in terms for meeting with him. I think Trump has always been interested in talking with the Iranians in the same way he has with Kim Jong Un and North Korea. He used Moon Jae-in to facilitate that dialogue. He might have this model in his mind," the expert suggested.

He added, however, that hawks in the Trump administration, who sought the isolation of Iran, would probably try to discourage the president from it, noting that it was still hard to make any firm predictions on the matter.

Mason, on the other hand, suggested that the US administration would try to discourage Japan from maintaining ties with Iran.

"I think the Trump administration will definitely attempt to prevent Japan from undermining its efforts in isolating Iran at international arena. That is very straightforward in terms of the US foreign policy," he said.

The expert said that while there had been "a certain degree of tensions" between the two nations regarding Iran, now there was "a clear opposition."

The United States has stepped up in recent weeks its military presence in the Middle East in what Bolton has called a clear and unmistakable message to Iran. The United States has recently deployed to the region an aircraft carrier strike group, Patriot missiles, B-52 bombers and F-15 fighters, according to the Pentagon. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has said that Iran does not intend to wage war with the United States but will continue to resist Washington.

On the eve of his visit to Japan, Trump also announced that the United States was sending 1,500 troops to the Middle East to protect US interests and troops from the Iranian threat.