REVIEW - Economy, Foreign Relations To Top Agenda Of Japanese Prime Minister Abe's New Term

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 22nd September, 2018) Economic issues, in particular, the launch of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), along with relations with major foreign partners, namely China, Russia and the United States, are likely to dominate the agenda of the fourth term of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, experts told Sputnik in their comments on Friday.

On Thursday, Abe was re-elected as Japanese prime minister, winning 553 out of 807 votes in support of his candidacy for the post of the president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Abe's reelection enabled him to lead the Japanese government until 2021.

ECONOMY TO BE CORNERSTONE OF ABE'S LAST TERM

Alexander Panov, former Russian ambassador to Tokyo, told Sputnik that economy remained the biggest concern for Abe. Panov believed that Abe, who has been pushing forward the TPP launch, hoped that this regional trade agreement would help to rebuild and modernize the country's economy.

"Abe is trying to launch the TPP with other countries of the region now, maybe not in such a large scale as it was planned before. The economy is the task of the first importance for him, because the results of the next year's election to the upper chamber of parliament would depend on it," Panov, who is also the head of the Department of Diplomacy at Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), said.

Kazuhiko Togo, a retired Japanese diplomat and the director of the Institute for World Affairs at Kyoto Sangyo University, in turn, believed that Abe's economic policy, which interests voters most, will have several key aspects.

"Abenomics, which departed from the first arrow of monetary easing policy, still cannot escape from a different-dimension monetary easing strategy that reaches a negative interest rate, yet 2-percent inflation [target] has not been achieved. However, there has been no indefinite continuation of different-dimension monetary easing strategy, and prime minister Abe made a statement during the election campaign that the next three years he would be seeking an exit strategy," Togo stated.

Togo stressed that Japan would have to face many challenges to strengthen its economy if it wanted to continue implementing the comprehensive Abenomics which combined various policy options and was beneficial mainly for large companies.

Speaking about other directions for Abe's future activity, Panov stated that Abe was likely to move forward constitutional changes that would formalize the status of the Japanese armed forces.

"I think he will become more active in doing this ... The main thing is not changing the essence of Japan's military policy (article 9 of the constitution), but formalizing the status of the military forces that Japan already has, so that Japan finally overcomes the humiliating defeat in WWII, and becomes a fully normal state in terms of having its own army," the former diplomat said.

Togo, for his part, added that, compared to challenges in the economic field, amending the country's constitution was a far easier task.

"The most acute problem is whether it would be possible to receive the necessary votes for the revision even if the referendum takes place. It is understandable that he cannot reduce the spirit of 'revising the constitution' in order to maintain cohesive political power, but possibly there will be not enough time for this," Togo argued.

IMPROVING RELATIONS WITH US, CHINA, NORTH KOREA

Panov said that foreign relations were another issue of concern for Abe. According to the former ambassador, Abe needed to establish mutually beneficial trade relations with the United States, which was Tokyo's partner primarily in the military field, and respond to Washington's protectionist economic policy, notably concerning the Japanese car sector.

"In his foreign policy, it's very important for him to find new ways of cooperation with the US ... The United States continues putting pressure on Japan as trade between the two countries is more beneficial for Japan. So the United States puts pressure on them in such sensitive sectors as car exports to the United States, which is directly linked to the well-being of the Japanese economy," Panov explained.

The former diplomat noted that the relationship with one of Japan's main neighbors, China, was another crucial matter, especially taking into account challenges arising from historical and territorial disputes between the states.

"Abe will also seek new forms of cooperation with China, it's curious how the re-election will be taken in China ... There are territorial and historical problems in their relations, it will not be easy for Abe," Panov believed.

He also suggested that doing things with North Korea might not be easy either since the issue of abduction of the Japanese citizens by the North Korean security staff remained unresolved.

"Abe, as an active politician, got engaged in resolving this problem. But North Korea is not very much interested in relationship with Japan; the relations with the United States, China and South Korea have priority for [Pyongyang]. So it will not be easy for him to handle this situation � supporting [at once] the sanctions against North Korea and progress in the dispute about the abductions," Panov said.

Togo agreed with Panov on the importance of the abduction issue for the development of Japanese-North Korean relations, stressing at the same time that the Japanese prime minister would be under the scrutiny of voters in this regard.

"The population demands as much as the return of all of victims as the resolution of the abduction problem. If Abe's talks with [North Korean leader] Kim Jong Un take place and it becomes impossible to satisfy this demand, how can he explain this to the population and settle this issue without losing political power? I think it is a negotiable deal worth doing, but I must say that the hurdles are quite high," Togo argued.

Valery Kistanov, the head of the Center for Japanese Studies at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies of the Russian academy of Sciences, expressed confidence in his comments to Sputnik that Abe would not change his course regarding Russia and would try to resolve the long-lasting territorial dispute over the four South Kuril Islands.

"In relations with Russia Abe puts economy above politics, saying 'let's develop our economic relationship hoping it would create a favorable ground to resolve the territorial dispute and sign a peace treaty.' In 2016 Putin and Abe agreed on possibility to start joint economic activities on the four southern Kuril Islands. This is his way to start resolving the territorial dispute, his new approach, which is, however, strongly criticized in Japan," Kistanov said.

He stressed that the two parties now have three years to resolve the issue.

"Whether they'll do it or not is unclear, but Abe will not abandon the course of his politics regarding Russia. It is almost his family business, his father wanted to resolve it. Abe wants to make and resolve this problem, but his position is that in Russia only Putin is capable of resolving this problem, unlike in Japan where it's largely up to the parliament to handle it," Kistanov indicated.

He added that the desire to maintain a strong partnership with Russia was supported by fears of a possible Moscow-Beijing union against Tokyo.

"Abandoning the relations with Russia means pushing it towards cooperation with China, and Russia-China union against Japan is the worst nightmare for the Japanese. So there is something more to Russian-Japanese relation that Tokyo has to values, above the territorial dispute," Kistanov argued.

Togo was more optimistic about the prospects of resolving the problem of the disputed islands.

"Now the two countries are doing politics under somewhat stable and powerful leaders, Abe and Putin ... I think that this challenge is feasible if both Russia and Japan have such intentions, and possibly the most important and last opportunity has emerged right now in the postwar Japan-Russia relations. I strongly hope for the resolution of the two leaders and its realization," Togo indicated.

He believed that before signing the peace treaty the Japanese side should explain responsibly to the United States that the future Japan-Russia treaty would not be an adversarial treaty harming the interests of the United States and promote maximum cooperation with Russia in the conditions of the severe flow of anti-Russian sanctions.

"In response to the above-mentioned actions of the Japanese government, I would like the Russian government to make a realistic and long-term judgment on whether Japan is eligible as a 'partner to sign a peace treaty with,'" Togo suggested.

Last week, Vladimir Putin proposed at a plenary session of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) that a peace treaty with Japan should be signed by the end of the year without any preconditions. Speaking about the issue of the four disputed South Kuril Islands, Putin suggested including a provision on Moscow's and Tokyo's commitment to resolve the issue within the text of the document.

On Thursday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said it was working out a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Japanese counterpart Taro Kono on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly where Putin's proposal is likely to be discussed in detail.