REVIEW - Europe's Sigh Of Relief Ahead Of Biden's Inauguration May Be Premature

BRUSSELS (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 20th January, 2021) While preparations are underway in Washington for the upcoming inauguration of the 46th US president, Joe Biden, European capitals are bracing for an era where they will no longer have to deal with the outgoing president's unpredictable behaviors.

Biden is scheduled to take the oath at the Capitol Hill on Tuesday. The US capital is gearing up in an unprecedented security posture, practically closing the city to the public and calling in 20,000 National Guard troops to ensure security during the event - in the absence of Donald Trump - for fear of ripple effects of the January 6 unrest.

"The dialogue between Europe and the United States will undoubtedly be better, more 'classic' with Joe Biden. Donald Trump practiced 'America First' without any concessions, only worsening the retaliatory measures if he encountered opposition," Thierry Mariani, a French member of the European Parliament and its Committee on Foreign Affairs, told Sputnik.

During his presidency, Trump succeeded in alienating several European nations and leaders.

Memories are still fresh of Trump lashing out at German Chancellor Angela Merkel at a NATO summit in 2018 for not paying Berlin's fair share of alliance's fees and buying gas from Russia. Many media labeled the entire encounter as "bullying."

The outgoing US president will also be remembered by his signature handshake diplomacy � the way French President Emmanuel Macron's knuckles went white after one of such handshakes practically became a meme subject. On January 6, Macron made a vibrant statement in front of the French, European and, unexpectedly, US flags "in defense of democracy in the United States" in a very pro-Biden message.

"Biden will be a lot more predictable, that's for sure. The unpredictable and brutal, sometimes even irrational, decisions of Donald Trump had put international relations to the test. We are going to experience a return to America's multilateralism," Pierre Vercauteren, a professor of Political Sciences at UCLouvain University in Belgium, told Sputnik.

Many in European political circles also sigh in relief, expecting the Biden administration's foreign policy to shift the focus from confrontation with Europe to a pressure on a more "habitual" adversary, Russia.

"Relations with Russia are likely to worsen," MEP Thierry Mariani said.

The French lawmaker described Biden's appointee to lead the CIA, former US ambassador to Moscow (2005-2008) William Burns as an "anti-Russian hawk" and pointed out that US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has already blamed the deadly riots at the Capitol Hill by Trump supporters on Russia.

"Democrats need an outside enemy," Mariani said, adding that "Russia is the traditional enemy for the Democratic Party, which is very much under the influence of the US military-industrial complex."

Biden will want to remain tough on China amid it emerging as a new military and space key player, but he will unlikely escalate it into a confrontation because of sizable trade ties with Beijing, the lawmaker opined.

"It is therefore Russia that the CIA chooses as in the days of the Cold War," Mariani said.

Concerns about the potential revival of Cold War practices during Biden's presidency were also voiced by Austrian member of the European Parliament Roman Haider.

"The new US President Biden will have a very hard time in his first term in office and will therefore naturally try to justify his domestic policy failures with foreign policy actions. We remember [ex-US presidents] Bush Senior or Bill Clinton who did the same. My fear, therefore, is that Biden will present himself as a cold war president who seeks to develop a profile in the idea of conflict rather than in idea of providing solutions," Haider told Sputnik.

The Austrian lawmaker, too, expects that US foreign policies will harden "especially vis-a-vis Russia."

"Biden has been a man of the Washington establishment for decades. His thinking is frozen in the cold war structures. I can't imagine he is able to reflect on the necessities of NATO in the 21st century," German member of the European Parliament Maximilian Krah told Sputnik.

Recalling that Biden has described Russia as a "major global enemy," which the German lawmaker said shows that "this man is stuck in the 1980s," he added "We must be prepared to see a return to the cold war thinking and structures. That includes the intention of the American administration to increase the North Atlantic partnership, both militarily and economically. It might mean very unpleasant politics, especially concerning Russia."

CONTINUITY OF CAUTIOUSNESS WITH CHINA, MIDDLE EAST

While forecasting a "partial roll-back" to the pre-Trump era with regard to trade relations in the North Atlantic region, Krah otherwise expects Biden to continue many of his predecessor's foreign policies, such as toward China.

"We don't expect the Biden administration to take back much of the harsh anti-Chinese actions launched by Donald Trump. I don't expect a return to the pre-Trump normality. China and the USA remain global competitors and Biden can't go back to 'business as usual' anymore because it has simply ceased to exist," Krah argued.

Given the resistance to contemporary world politics trends, continuity is what should be expected of Biden on other foreign political vectors as well, it was argued by the lawmaker.

"So he will simply try to strengthen the old structures, which means above all the old US-Turkish relation, despite the changing Turkish politics and influence in the region. This is bad news for the Middle East, especially for Syria. Biden will take a very pro-Turkish stand, which could bring back the war to Syria," Krah said.

The return to pre-Trump game may turn disadvantageous on some vectors, however. Political scientist Pierre Vercauteren argued that Biden's signaling of readiness to return to the Obama-signed nuclear deal with Iran would "doubtlessly be considered a weakness" by Tehran.

"It will be complicated, even if the US can count on the EU," Vercauteren said.

"We should not expect to go back to the Obama days," French MEP Thierry Mariani said.

The Democratic Party realizes that Trump's prioritization of national interests under the "America First" slogan was one of the key reasons behind his massive public support, the French lawmaker said, adding that "Post-Trump Democrats will be different and influenced by Donald Trump's positions and policies."

For example, Biden might chose to abolish some of the planned radical tariffs on EU goods, such as luxury wine and cheese from France, but will likely overwhelmingly prioritize supporting US tech giants like Facebook and Apple, which amply funded his election campaign, but were slapped reciprocal sanctions by the European Union, Mariani said.

"Reciprocal economic sanctions, such as in the Boeing - Airbus affair ended in a draw, with punitive taxes on both sides. We must get out of these dead ends," UCLouvain University's Vercauteren said.

The political scientist expects Biden and EU leadership to mend the trade relationship "without giving up too much ground."

"Domestically, Biden is looking at a deeply divided country, to which he himself has contributed by making the radical left acceptable in US politics. This ideological struggle, which was already unparalleled during the election campaign, will intensify in the coming years, and Europe in particular must take care not to get caught in the middle," German MEP Maximilian Krah said.

"I expect Biden's tax and economic policies will deteriorate the US economy, but his administration will probably ease the reciprocal US / EU tariffs and sanctions, which is a good thing," Italian member of the European Parliament Pietro Fiocchi told Sputnik.

At the same time, the Italian lawmaker advises against thinking that Biden will change Trump's policies on European NATO allies � he expects that the new US president will gladly let Europeans take care of a bigger share of their defense spending. Fiocchi also expects Biden to continue Trump's military disengagement from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.

"Donald Trump did not lose the elections on his foreign policies, but on domestic issues and the mismanagement of the pandemic," Fiocchi said.