REVIEW - Ukraine Marks 5th Anniversary Of Maidan Protests Amid Unclear EU Membership Prospects

KIEV (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 21st November, 2018) Ukraine is celebrating the fifth anniversary of the Euromaidan events, with the country having made little progress in terms of economic growth and EU aspirations and still facing outstanding demands from the majority of the Ukrainian public, experts told Sputnik in their comments.

Kiev's main square, Maidan Nezalezhnosti ("Independence Square" in English), was occupied by EU integration supporters on November 21, 2013, right after then Prime Minister Mykola Azarov announced that the country would not sign the Association Agreement with the European Union.

Maidan then became the center of confrontation between the country's security forces and protesters. The new Ukrainian authorities attributed responsibility for the death of more than 100 people during the violent protests to their political opponent, then president Viktor Yanukovych, and the Berkut special police force. Both Yanukovych and the police unit denied their involvement in the killings. Following the change of power, Berkut was dismantled.

Over the past five years, the country has managed to make significant progress in terms of EU integration. Ukraine eventually signed the Association Agreement, attained visa liberalization and also created a free trade area (FTA) with the bloc.

The Ukrainian authorities also intend to amend the country's constitution to enshrine Kiev's aspiration to join the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in its text. Experts argue, however, that Ukraine's real chances at EU membership remain vague.

After the change of power and the revision of foreign economic policies, the country faced economic decline, which, despite some stabilization, has not given way to sustainable growth so far. Ukraine is taking out new foreign loans to support its economy while at the same time raising utility prices in order to fulfill lender requirements. This is occurring at a time when 25 percent of the country's population lives below the poverty line, according to UN figures.

HIGH HOPES FOR RAPPROCHEMENT WITH EU

In November 2013, Azarov's government suspended the signing of the Association Agreement. The authorities justified their move by saying that the agreement threatened the country with financial risks. At the same time, Yanukovych stressed that European integration remained a goal for Ukraine.

The government's decision sparked a wave of protests across the country, with Kiev's Independence Square becoming the heart of public discontent. As a result of the mass demonstrations, the government was overthrown. The new cabinet pledged to bring a European standard of living to the country, expressing its commitment to align with Brussels and pursue EU membership. At the same time, the new authorities opted for estrangement from Russia.

In 2014, the new Ukrainian leadership finally signed the Association Agreement, which provided for the creation of a FTA between the country and the bloc. Two years later, the agreement became completely operational, with Ukraine gaining access to the EU market. Besides the free trade deal, the agreement also provided for Kiev-Brussels cooperation on defense, conflict prevention, taxation, public finance, the fight against terrorism, migration and border control.

Ukrainian manufacturers faced the problem of quotas prescribed by the FTA, however. Because of this, Ukraine was allowed to sell 36 types of goods without duties to the bloc, albeit in limited quantities. Beyond the set quantities, exporters can then supply their products to the EU market without preferential terms. In fact, Ukrainian producers usually deliver the number of goods eligible for preferential trade to the bloc at the beginning of the year, while the remaining exports are delivered under ordinary procedures.

Meanwhile, despite claims that they abandoned the Russian market, Ukrainian manufacturers continued to work with their Russian partners. According to the Ukrainian National Bank, Ukraine increased its trade with Russia by 28.6 percent year-on-year in 2017, while trade with the European Union showed a 27.6 percent increase in the same period. A similar trade trend is being observed in 2018.

After years of efforts, Ukraine finally achieved a visa-free regime with the European Union in June 2017. Ukrainians are now allowed to travel to the Schengen countries without visas provided they have a biometric passport. Ukrainian citizens are eligible to enter the European Union on a visa-free basis if their stay does not exceed 90 days within a 180-day period. While Ukrainians may travel to the bloc without visas for tourism, business and family purposes, they still need to obtain a visa to either work or study.

In early 2018, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko suggested that the nation's parliament should amend the constitution to pave the way for EU and NATO membership and indicate Ukraine's place "as a member of the European family." According to Poroshenko, the amendments should also require the country's president, the government and the parliament to uphold that course. The draft law has been sent for consideration to the Constitutional Court.

In June, Poroshenko said that he hoped that Ukraine would join the European Union by 2030, claiming that today's Ukrainian schoolchildren would live in the bloc. Ukrainian Parliament Chairman Andriy Parubiy, however, said earlier in November that Ukraine might become a full-fledged EU member state as soon as in 2025.

"Poland will chair the European Union in 2025, and Lithuania in 2027, and we all believe that this would be a perfect window of opportunity for Ukraine to make important strategic decisions, in particular, on joining the European Union," Parubiy said.

Experts interviewed by Sputnik did not share the leadership's optimism.

The head of Kiev-based analytical center Third Sector, Andrei Zolotarev, said he believed that such statements by the Ukrainian authorities were unsubstantiated and unsupported.

"I think when claiming that conditions would be favorable for Ukraine to join the European Union in 2025, Parubiy in reality knows perfectly well that ... he will no longer be [parliament] chair. Therefore, he will not have to be held accountable for his promises," Zolotarev told Sputnik.

According to Zolotarev, Ukraine's problem lies in the fact that the European Union is not interested in Ukraine in its current state.

"The EU has already got from Ukraine everything that it wanted: market access, an Association Agreement, which is not beneficial for Ukraine in economic terms," the expert said.

Ruslan Bortnik, a political scientist at the Ukrainian Institute for Analysis and Management of Policy, agreed with Zolotarev in assessing Ukraine's EU membership prospects as vague.

"Demanding the signing of an Association Agreement [with the European Union], people in fact demanded joining the European Union. And [over the past five years], we not only have not joined the European Union, but we have been officially denied any possibility to become an EU member state," Bortnik told Sputnik.

Bortnik said he was convinced that over the past five years the Ukrainian public had increased its demands for the government to the point where they were now even greater than they were at the beginning of the Euromaidan.

"None of the demands voiced during the Maidan have been completely fulfilled. Moreover, the demands to fight corruption, raise the standard of living to the European level have been ignored and destroyed. Today people are live worse in both legal and economic terms than before the Maidan," Bortnik added.

In 2017, Johannes Hahn, the European neighborhood policy and enlargement negotiations commissioner, said that it was unrealistic to talk about Ukraine's membership in the European Union in the upcoming years and that Kiev had to concentrate on implementing the Association Agreement.

After the Euromaidan, Ukraine plunged into one of the deepest crises in its history. In 2014 and 2015, the country's GDP fell by 7 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Ukraine's national Currency, the hryvnia, depreciated by more than 200 percent. At the time, many experts stated that the country's economy had bottomed out.

In 2016, the economic decline stopped and by the end of the year the economy showed a growth of 1.5 percent. In 2017, the GDP increased slightly to 2.5 percent. However, according to experts, after such a period of stagnation, this growth could hardly be called successful.

Ukrainian economic expert Alexander Okhrimenko, though, was quite optimistic about the country's economic situation, saying that the worst for the country was over and the economy started to recover.

"Of course, the crisis of 2014-2015 years is over. Now we enjoy an economic growth of 3 percent. But speaking about the period before the Euromaidan: if there had been no Euromaidan, there would have been no crisis. Roughly speaking, we would have had an annual growth of 3-4 percent, but there would have been no decline of 2014-2015," Okhrimenko told Sputnik.

According to Okhrimenko, the current state of the Ukrainian economy is below the 2013 level, including the level of social security.

"In the best case scenario, with such a growth rate in the economy we will be able to achieve the level of 2013 in 2023... Some economic indicators may have improved, but the main economic indicators are falling," Okhrimenko added.

Political analyst Andreyi Zolotarev, for his part, said that he believed that Ukraine was interested in other countries only in terms of its resources.

To support the country's economy, Kiev has been forced to seek loans from the international community. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is Ukraine's main creditor but provides Kiev with loans under radical conditions, such as increasing national gas consumer prices.

The Ukrainian government has decided to raise gas prices for the population by 23.5 percent starting on November 1. The new price will total $300 per 1,000 cubic meters (35,314 cubic feet) of gas. Meanwhile, in 2013, 1,000 cubic meters of gas cost less than $35. The government also revealed that the IMF initially demanded a 60 percent increase in gas prices, but the two parties then managed to agree on a compromise for future loans.

The increase in gas prices for the population has led to higher utility prices, which are set to grow by another 16 percent. Over the past five years, tariffs for almost everything have increased. For example, since 2013 the electricity tax has already grown by over 500 percent � from about $0.01 to $0.06.

Consumer prices have also gone up significantly. In 2013, bread cost about $0.16 and now costs $0.44.

The price of fuel has increased as well. A-95 grade gasoline now costs $1.2 per liter, while the price for diesel is $1.16. Five years ago, gasoline cost $0.36 per liter and diesel cost $0.35.

According to the World Bank country director for Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine, Satu Kahkonen, 25 percent of the Ukrainian population live below the poverty line as of the summer of 2018. Back in 2014, this figure was at the level of 15 percent.

On November 21, Ukraine is celebrating the Day of Dignity and Freedom, better known as Euromaidan Day among the general population. A number of memorial and cultural events are usually held in Kiev on this day with the participation of politicians and officials, Euromaidan activists and servicemen involved in the Donbas military operation. The festivities usually last for about a week.

According to the Kiev city administration, the main celebrations will be held in the central part of the city. Students will march along the streets and lay flowers on the alley named after the Heroes of Heavenly Hundred, which refers to the victims of the Euromaidan events.