RPT: ANALYSIS - Dim Hopes For New Beginning As Burundi Awaits Presidential Vote Results

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 24th May, 2020) As Burundi is waiting for the results of the general election that will replace its president of 15 years, hopes of change have already been challenged by the opposition's claims of fraud and a social media blackout, with experts suggesting that the restive African nation will continue down its current path.

The former Belgian colony has been torn apart by violence between the ethnic majority Hutu population and the Tutsi minority since it gained independence in 1962. The last election saw President Pierre Nkurunziza win a third term, triggering mass protests and a crackdown in which some 1,200 people were killed.

This Wednesday's polls were a tight race between Nkurunziza's protege Evariste Ndayishimiye of the ruling CNDD-FDD party and his 2015 rival Agathon Rwasa from the opposition National Freedom Council (CNL). The official results are not due before Monday.

There are seven candidates running for the country's top job but Ndayishimiye and Rwasa � both Hutus with a military background � are viewed as top contenders.

Filip Reyntjens, a Belgian political science professor at the University of Antwerp specializing in sub-Saharan Africa, told Sputnik that the rest of the candidates were not likely to get more than 10 percent of the vote.

He said both Ndayishimiye and Rwasa were very popular political figures. Rwasa, who comes from an old Hutu rebel movement created in 1980, has positioned himself as a candidate of change, rallying large crowds of people.

"Supposing that Agathon Rwasa was to win the election, I don't think it will make a big difference to Burundi. I don't think Rwasa is a particularly democratic man; he certainly doesn't have a track record of respect for democracy and human rights," Reyntjens said.

"So I think what we'll see in Burundi, whether Ndayishimiye becomes president or Rwasa, we'll probably see more of the same essentially, which is not good news because the country is not run well," he added.

On the contrary, Eric Ndayisaba, a professor at the University of Burundi, believes that the president's hand-picked candidate will be capable of reshuffling the government in the spirit of compromise.

"This election is important as it is relatively competitive. The competition started within the political parties... We are expecting certain reconfiguration of political landscape in terms of circulation of the elites. This competition can result in stronger political parties, inclining towards the logic of compromise," he said.

Ndayisaba said that Ndayishimiye, who served as interior minister from 2006-2007, could do well fighting corruption in one of the world's poorest nations, improve its human rights record and diplomatic relations that have deteriorated under President Nkurunziza.

More than 5 million Burundians were eligible to vote in the election, which went off without any reports of violence or widespread irregularities. Despite this, the main opposition party has accused the government of rigging the ballot.

Facebook, WhatsApp and Twitter have been blocked in the country since Wednesday. The only information that percolates to the public is filtered by the state media, which are in turn supervised by the communications ministry.

"It's not good, it's not transparent, it creates suspicion... As to who did this, that must be the government, the opposition has no access to internet servers and to national communications agency, Onatel, which is one of the main providers in Burundi," Reyntjens said.

He explained that the blackout was possibly a precautionary measure to avoid calls to violence. Burundi has not seen a single period of lasting post-election peace in its history.

But Christian Thibon, a researcher at the University of Pau and the Adour Region in France, has warned that the delay in vote counting was a sign that the odds were not in favor of the governing party.

"The longer it lasts the more unfavorable it must be for the power in place. The more they will want to interfere... The long process allows for the possibility of manipulations by the party in power... Such a delay makes any practice possible; according to our Burundian colleagues, the tardiness in results is to prepare and sooth the people's minds," he said.

According to early poll results cited by state media on Thursday, the ruling party is on track to win 80 percent of the vote against the opposition's 20 percent, with roughly 12 percent of ballots tallied.

Both the ruling CNDD-FDD and opposition CNL parties stand to gain everything by winning the election in the country where one may struggle to make a living off a job outside the government.

"Power in Africa is extremely important. You can't gain a decent living in the private sector basically. You have to control the state to make a living," Reyntjens said.

"The elites of the CNDD-FDD stand to lose a lot of posts they have, privileges they have; they enjoy impunity for their crimes and all that will change if another party came to power," he predicted.

If CNL loses the election by a slim margin the Rwasa people may start demonstrating and this may turn violent as it did in 2015, Reyntjens warned.

Thibon agreed that losing would be regarded as embarrassment and injustice by young voters of either party. He added that tensions could be avoided if generals, technocrats and the church were reassured about their future.

"Burundi has everything to gain from a peaceful transition. The question is if there are politicians who can manage such a task," he said.

Ndayisaba argued that Burundians were conscious of the change they wanted to see and would not allow a long-lasting political uncertainty.

"I don't think that we will face a crisis, meaning that there will be no social demand. People still remember the traumatizing crisis of 2015. We are scared to shift into limbo," the expert said.