RPT: ANALYSIS - NATO-Russia Nuclear Standoff Looming Amid Nordics' Accession Bid
Muhammad Irfan Published May 12, 2022 | 11:10 AM
ST. PETERSBURG (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 12th May, 2022) Finland's and Sweden's potential accession to NATO makes the scenario of a clash between the global nuclear powers real for the first time in decades, experts told Sputnik.
The governments of the two Nordic nations announced in March they were considering applying for NATO membership after Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine.
The two are expected to announce their official stance on whether they will join the US-led military alliance in the coming days. A "yes" would end more than two centuries of Sweden's military neutrality. Finland has been neutral since losing in World War II.
The Swedish parliament is deliberating on pros and cons of giving up its long history of military non-alignment, although local media report that the majority is in favor of the NATO path. The ruling Social Democratic party, which has so far opposed the move, has been holding parallel discussions on the matter.
"NATO accession could, in the event of a military misunderstanding or incident in the sensitive Baltic Sea, lead to a military confrontation with a nuclear power," Ludo De Brabander, spokesman for the Belgian Vrede peace movement, told Sputnik.
The Nordics, he said, are well aware of an extreme sensitivity of NATO's expansion for Russia, which could see it as a military provocation.
"Finland shares a 1,300 km (800 miles) common border with Russia. The fact that the direct border with the NATO area would suddenly become much longer is seen in Russia as a military provocation," he said.
Moscow has warned that it will respond by strengthening its military presence in the Baltic Sea region, including by deploying nuclear weapons. The region and wider northwestern Europe have been until recently viewed as the most stable region in Europe.
Brabander said that military buildup in the region would predictably add fuel to the fire, leading to regional tensions and geopolitical instability.
Laura Carlsen, director of the Americas Program think-tank, warned of geopolitical implications of the Ukrainian conflict and the Nordics' accession to NATO, saying she was deeply concerned that any more on any side could provoke "deeper militarization and further aggression or undermine peace talks."
NATO adding two more countries on Russia's border seems to be a significant escalation but in reality Finland and Sweden have already been NATO's close partners for the past three decades. They have participated in crisis management operations across the world and joint drills in the Baltic Sea region and bolstered their military capabilities in lockstep with the alliance.
Brabander pointed out that NATO had been eyeing this addition for some time. The two countries both joined the NATO Partnership for Peace program in 1994, intended as a conduit for enhanced military cooperation. In 2014, they signed a Host Nation Support Agreement with NATO, opening up their territories to the alliance's military operations and exercises.
"Since then, Finland and Sweden have been among the partner countries with which deep relationships have been forged (the so-called 'Enhanced Opportunity Partners'). That way, they were just one step away from effective membership," he said.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said that the two countries could join "soon" and assured them that arrangements could be made for the interim period, which could last as little as a year.
The United States and the United Kingdom have promised increased military presence and strong political support from NATO allies to the Nordic neighbors once the applications process to join NATO got underway. Their application bids will need the approval of all 30 NATO member states.
Brabanded questioned whether all European politicians and activists would welcome the candidacy of Sweden and Finland, although he admitted that any dissent against NATO was equated to support of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"My (our) opposition to NATO has become very difficult these times. We are often attacked for it and called 'pro-Putin,' which � in due respect � I'm not," he said.
Croatian President Zoran Milanovic, for one, has threatened to veto the Nordics' admission but he lacks crucial support of the center-right government, which has a small parliamentary majority.
Finnish and Swedish peace movements have also warned in an open letter about further "division of the world into hostile military blocs" and called for unaligned countries to stick to their independent foreign policies for the sake of common security.
Ashley Amor, a marketing manager and co-founder of the US PeopleFindFast company, said she believed in "NATO's hidden agenda behind its eastward expansion."
"I believe these two countries are making grave mistakes. Russia is not a security risk for them as long as they remain neutral and don't pose any threat to it. Joining NATO and hosting its deadly weapons at Russia's border will be a severe military escalation with Russia," she explained.
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