RPT: ANALYSIS - No Easy Options For Biden On Afghanistan As US-Taliban Deal Marks One-Year Anniversary

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 01st March, 2021) The Biden administration will have no easy options in Afghanistan, as the war-ravaged country continues to reel from increased violence even one year after the United States and the Taliban signed a peace agreement in Doha, analysts told Sputnik.

February 29, 2020, marked the signing of the historic peace deal between the Afghan government and the Taliban group in the Qatari capital of Doha after months of painstaking negotiations. The closely-watched talks, mainly dedicated to securing a permanent ceasefire and creating a roadmap for Afghanistan's future political system, were expected to usher in the long-waited peace for the conflict-stricken nation.

The negotiations were delayed on several occasions and teetered on the verge of cancellation due to the attacks staged by the Taliban and the US operations in Afghanistan. They eventually kicked off less than a week after then-President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal of thousands of troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan. The US vowed to pull all troops from Afghanistan within 14 months, provided the Taliban stops using Afghan territory for attacks on the US, its interests and allies. As of January, Pentagon announced that the US military contingent in Afghanistan has been reduced to 2,500 troops.

However, instead of the much-anticipated peace, the months that came after February were marked by violence, which rose in geometrical progression. Even the intra-Afghan talks that started in September did not stop the violence. On the contrary, the nation has witnessed a spate of bomb attacks and clashes, with the military regularly reporting on its special operations against the Taliban. Moreover, the UN recently admitted that since the start of the Kabul-Taliban peace talks, Afghanistan has faced a "chilling" wave of killings of rights activists and media workers.

Now, on the anniversary of the US-Taliban deal, the effect of the negotiations is still under question, especially after the change of power in the US and President Joe Biden's vows to review the pullout deal inked under ex-President Trump. Biden has already vowed that his administration would review the landmark deal and investigate if the Taliban lives up to its commitment to reduce attacks. The Pentagon also vowed to conduct a review of the American military's global presence by the middle of 2021.

Reacting to the new policies of Washington, Taliban political chief Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai warned that if the US violates the agreement with the Taliban and does not withdraw troops from Afghanistan, the movement is prepared to defend itself. Stanikzai, however, expressed confidence that Washington would remain committed to the troops' pullout.

Meanwhile, the Afghan Defense Ministry recently told Sputnik that the country's army is capable of conducting almost 100 percent of security operations on their own and will be able to protect the country from terrorists after foreign troops leave.

UNUSUALLY BLOODY WINTER IN AFGHANISTAN TO WEIGH ON BIDEN ADMINISTRATION

So far, the new US government has expressed a strong interest in the deal and to plans to review it. US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, recently remarked that the US "wants to end this so-called forever war."

"President Joe Biden does not have any easy options in Afghanistan, but the collapse of Iraq should serve as a reminder of the risks of state collapse and of what is likely to transpire if he orders the withdrawal of American forces and paves the way for the Taliban to capture power," Dr. Nishank Motwani, an international researcher, told Sputnik.

Meanwhile, Raghav Sharma, associate professor and director of the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at O. P. Jindal Global University, believes that the one thing that currently characterizes the relations between Washington and the Taliban is "uncertainty."

"The fact that the winter months, which typically see a lull in fighting have been unusually bloody, coupled with preparations for what is likely to be intensive spring offensive, are likely to weigh on the Biden administration as it weighs options of keeping up the military pressure through the Afghan National Security Forces backed by NATO's resolute support mission," he said.

GOALS FUNDAMENTALLY AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER

One year after sealing the agreement, the gap between what the Taliban and the Afghan government want and on what they are willing to compromise does not seem to have reduced.

"No degree of compromises would be sufficient to satisfy what the Afghan government and the Taliban are after because their end goals are fundamentally at odds with each other," Motwani believes.

According to him, the militant group seeks "total power, not shared power" and it will not stop until it gets what it seeks.

"The intra-Afghan talks in Doha never had a chance of delivering a roadmap to peace because the Taliban hold the belief that peace should be on their terms alone which requires dissolving the Afghan state and to put in place the Taliban as a permanent entity and thereby burying democracy," he said.

HUGELY BENEFICIAL DEAL FOR TALIBAN

The February 2020 deal "circumvented" the Afghan government which "significantly undermined" Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's position and his government's legitimacy in the eyes of the Taliban, Motwani believes.

"The Doha deal also weakened Ghani's position vis-a-vis domestic political competitors and warlords such as Gulbuddin Hekmatyar who cannot gain power on their own and are seeking power at all costs even if it leads to state collapse. The only purpose an interim government would serve is for greedy actors to get access to and control state resources which would come at the cost of the national interest," he said.

Hekmatyar, a prominent Afghan warlord in the 1980s, later entered politics and served as the country's prime minister in the 1990s. His Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin signed a peace deal with the Afghan government back in 2016.

Meanwhile, Sharma believes that the Taliban leadership seeks "to play the Doha agreement to their advantage". Also by totally excluding the Afghan government from negotiations with the Taliban, then Trump administration contributed to the undermining of Afghanistan and "soured relations between Washington and Kabul," he added.

"Hence the desire on part of the Biden administration for a cautious review of the Doha agreement. Although the Doha agreement has forced the Taliban to eventually engage with the Kabul government it has not led to any substantial progress as of now and the Taliban do not make any attempt to hide their contempt for the Afghan government," he concluded.

Sharma also criticized the timing and the pace of the whole process, especially the fact that the negotiations, which were due to start within ten days of the inking of the Doha deal, took months to get off the ground and the problems they faced. Plus, the whole peace process was marred by the increased violence in the country.

"[This] speaks for the yawning gap that underlines the current state of engagement between the two sides," he explained.

Meanwhile, Abdul Hadi Jalali, co-founder and director of the Afghanistan Center for Policy Studies, believes that the deal paved the way for the peace process in Afghanistan.

"The on-going Afghan Government and Taliban negotiations is a product of the US and Taliban signed deal. While, the deal is currently under review in the US Administration, the recent resumption of the Afghan talks in Qatar, is a positive step," he told Sputnik.

He recalled that Kabul and the Taliban have completed one round of negotiations in Doha and the second round has just begun.

"This in itself is evidence of both sides acknowledging each other, which is a positive step forward. The setback is the fact that substantial progress has not been achieved yet," he concluded.

Earlier in the week, Kabul resumed peace talks with the Taliban in Doha. The militant group's political spokesman, Mohammad Naeem tweeted that the meeting between delegations of the Taliban movement and the Afghan government was held in a congenial atmosphere.