RPT: PREVIEW - Xi's Visit To N. Korea To Laud 'Socialist Brotherhood,' Reboot Regional Diplomacy

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 20th June, 2019) MOSCOW, June 20 (Sputnik), Valentina Shvartsman - Chinese President Xi Jinping will pay a two-day visit to North Korea starting Thursday, with the occasion likely to once again underline the importance of a "socialist brotherhood" between the two Asian nations, while also becoming yet another opportunity, aside the G20 summit in Japan next week and the US president's subsequent visit to South Korea, to reboot the regional diplomacy.

The trip will be the first official visit of a Chinese party and state leader to North Korea after a 14-year hiatus after Hu Jintao, the country's previous leader, visited Kim Jong Il in Pyongyang in 2005.

The period that followed the death of Kim Jong Il in 2011 � the national mourning and Kim Jong Un's first steps to consolidate power as the Asian nation's new leader � was not seen as auspicious by the Chinese authorities, Robert Winstanley-Chesters, a North Korea expert and lecturer at the University of Leeds and Birkbeck, University of London, told Sputnik.

"Equally the years in which North Korea sought development of nuclear weapons and eventually not only gained that capability but tested them in North Korea, not far from China and much against Beijing's direction, which certainly did not wish nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula again or the attention they might bring from the United States, would have proved impossible for China to arrange such a visit," Winstanley-Chesters said, explaining the hiatus.

The situation changed, however, when Kim traveled to Beijing on his first foreign trip as part of a diplomatic U-turn from firing ballistic missiles and testing nuclear weapons to engaging in dialogue with the United States and South Korea. Kim's decision to choose China as the destination for his first foreign trip was no surprise, given the historic alliance between Beijing and Pyongyang, the expert noted.

"Historically even though North Korea has sought to assert its independence and autonomy in the region, it has always been important for its government and institutions to pay homage to China's superior position and it would have therefore been unthinkable for Kim Jong Un to not have visited Beijing first, as was the case, carrying a formal invitation to President Xi," Winstanley-Chesters said.

Yet, it took Xi over 15 months � and three more visits of Kim � to take up the invitation to Pyongyang.

"They [the Chinese authorities] were in no rush to put relations back as they used to be. It helps to remind North Korea that it cannot just assume that China will be there for it," James Edward Hoare, a research associate at London's school of Oriental and African Studies, explained to Sputnik.

In a rare op-ed for North Korea's ruling party newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun, Xi reaffirmed the strong will of the Chinese government to develop "relations of friendship and cooperation" with North Korea. The two-day visit itself is also likely held under the banner of "socialist brotherhood," Winstanley-Chesters noted.

"This week is the 70th anniversary of the opening of diplomatic relations between the People's Republic of China and North Korea, which given that both nations are very concerned to mark such important historical moment is really quite important, creating an auspicious moment which both men and their nation's media agencies can frame as another moment of continued socialist brotherhood," he said.

Apart from the elaborate theatrics, which are likely to include artistic and musical performances, commemorative trees and "other political props," the two-day talks may include discussions of possible food aid to North Korea, the expert added.

"North Korea has had a difficult harvest and inclement weather which has damaged its agricultural production and Vietnam has already delivered food aid to Pyongyang, it would be a sign of real brotherhood if China did the same, and that would be very much welcomed by North Korea," Winstanley-Chesters said.

In February, North Korea asked international humanitarian organizations for aid in amid nationwide food shortages provoked by low crop production and tightened food rationing.

Xi's visit to Pyongyang, however, will hardly be limited to bilateral relations. Apart from the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations, Winstanley-Chesters pointed out, the visit is carefully timed just a week before the heads of other key actors in the North Korea crisis � such as the United States, Russia, Japan and South Korea � will gather in Japan's Osaka for the G20 summit.

Considering the G20 host country's strong desire to arrange a summit with the North Korean leader � which has so far resulted only into Pyongyang's skepticism and insults against the Japanese top diplomat � and US President Donald Trump's visit to South Korea scheduled for after the summit, Xi's trip to North Korea will become one of centerpiece events in reshaping the regional diplomacy.

"This is an important couple of weeks in which engagements can be made between all the nations involved," the expert stressed.

The US-North Korea summit in February left the denuclearization dialogue in a deadlock, with the United States demanding that North Korea completely dismantle its nuclear facilities for sanctions relief, and North Korea wanting a part of the restrictions to be lifted beforehand.

While remaining Pyongyang's major ally, Beijing is likely use the visit to give impetus to the stalled nuclear talks, Hoare noted.

"The message will be that we support you but you should get back into talks on the nuclear issue, which also concerns China. Whatever problems China has with the US, it does not want conflict on the Korean peninsula and does not want a nuclear North Korea," he said.

Winstanley-Chesters echoed his views, noting that Beijing and Washington were on the same page about the need to deescalate the tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

"The Trump administration is always concerned to reduce costs of its military and other engagements across the planet, so that it can bring troops home and deploy them elsewhere, and Beijing is concerned about the potential for engagement and trouble on the Korean peninsula, an engagement which would not end to its advantage and distracts from other pressing issues such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and the South China Sea," the expert explained.

Though the Chinese Foreign Ministry warned against linking Xi's North Korea trip to his talks with Trump at the G20 summit, Winstanley-Chesters still suggested that China would still use the North Korea card in dialogue with the United States.

"China is very concerned to leave space for dialogue with the United States, even at difficult moments, and North Korea is something that Beijing can use as leverage for that dialogue, in order to attempt to make sure that relations with Washington do not descend to the worst case scenario," he noted.

Last year, China proposed the so-called double freeze plan that envisaged that North Korea would cease its nuclear activities in exchange for the United States and South Korea halting joint military exercises near the Korean peninsula. Russia supported the Chinese initiative and proposed developing a roadmap for the gradual restoration of trust and creation of conditions for resumption of six-party talks.