RPT: REVIEW - Germany Remains Gripped By Internal Division 1 Year After General Election

BRUSSELS (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 25th September, 2018) Germany remains divided a year after a general election brought about a seismic change: the union including the party of Chancellor Angela Merkel retained the leadership, but by a smaller margin, while the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party made a surprisingly grand entrance into the Bundestag.

On September 24, 2017, the AfD won 12.6 percent of the vote, which translated into 94 seats in a 709-seat parliament. The alliance of the CSU and Merkel's CDU secured 32.9 percent of the vote. The union now has 246 seats, a loss of 65 seats compared to the previous parliament composition, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) holds 153 seats, which is 40 seats fewer than before the vote.

It took Merkel six difficult months to renew the alliance with the SPD. Initially, the SPD was shocked into refusing to be part of the government coalition. Merkel tried to form a "Jamaica" coalition, with the Greens and the liberals of the Free Democratic Party (FDP); but this was putting water and fire together, and it failed.

Merkel, who has been chancellor since 2005, is now seeing the impact of her 2015 decision to open borders to migrants. Back then, she declared famously, "Wir schaffen das (We can do it)."

However, given the recent rise of strongly anti-immigration AfD, a large number of Germans did not take the pronouncement well. In addition, Merkel's union itself has been cleaved by the issue, with Bavaria-based CSU leaning toward a harsher policy on immigration.

CHEMNITZ BOOSTS DIVIDE OVER MIGRATION

The situation has been further destabilized by the recent incident in Chemnitz. In late August, a young man was stabbed to death. The police then detained two immigrants, suspecting them of the involvement in this case.

The tragic incident prompted demonstrations against immigrants and counter-demonstrations. Furthermore, national intelligence head, Hans-Georg Maassen, had to leave his office after he expressed doubt that the video that showed foreigners attacked in Chemnitz was real. Maassen thus contradicted Merkel.

The intelligence chief was initially expected to become deputy interior minister, but that decision of the government sparked protest on part of the SPD, where the move was seen as a promotion. Instead, Maasssen was then given the job of a consultant to the Ministry of the Interior, while Merkel publicly apologizes for the debacle.

"The case of the chief of intelligence, Mr. Maassen clearly demonstrates again the deplorable attitude of Chancellor Merkel and her government team on the rule of law. He was exemplary in fulfilling his duty with his administration, for which he was highly esteemed except in the Chancellor's office," Joerg Meuthen, the federal spokesman for the AfD, told Sputnik.

Meuthen decried Maassen's removal as part of the plan "by the Chancellor and her entourage who no longer shy away from the politicization of authority for the sole purpose of maintaining Merkel in power."

Earlier this month, German officials allowed Lebanese national Yassin Ali-Khan, who was convicted over killing a police officer 15 years ago, to remain in Germany. The administrative court ruled in his favor, allowing him not only to stay in the country but to receive benefits as well.

Such decisions may be helping the AfD gain new supporters.

According to the September survey by Infratest dimap pollster for ARD broadcaster, 49 percent of the Germans think that the federal government is taking the issues of migration seriously, while 51 percent believe opposite. The proportion of those who think the government is not concerned with migration is markedly larger in the East than in the West, 66 percent against 46 percent, respectively.

According to the same poll, 25 percent of the Germans think that the refugees are successfully integrating in the society, while 51 percent think that the integration is rather not a success, and 18 percent think that it is completely unsuccessful.

Sixty-nine percent of the Germans think the prevention of violence and crime is being handled either poorly or very poorly, 69 percent think the integration of refugees in the labor market is being handled badly or very badly. Eighty-three percent of the Germans think that the deportation of the people denied asylum is being handled poorly or very poorly.

A more recent poll, released over the weekend, showed that 28 percent were prepared to vote for the CDU/CSU if there was an election, 18 percent would back the AfD, and 17 percent would choose the SPD.

The results would be even worse if the survey was held a little later, Oskar Niedermayer, professor of political science at the Institute of Political Science of the Free University of Berlin, and managing director of the Otto-Stammer-Center for Political Sociology, told Sputnik.

"These results would have been worse for the GroKo [Grand coalition], for the coalition in power, since it came only the day after the Maassen affair. If the poll had been taken two or three days later, the coalition would have lost even more! The 28 percent of Merkel's Union is too flattering. The public reacts also to the media coverage. The SPD would also suffer, especially since this party which claims to be a people's party, comes only now in third position," Niedermayer said.

The expert said that the results of the poll were a warning for CSU leader and Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, whose party is also losing, despite its opposition to the government's immigration policy.

The CSU will be facing a serious test soon, as an election to a regional parliament will be held in October.

In mid-August, a poll by Forsa for the n-tv broadcaster showed the CSU could hope for 37 percent of the vote in the upcoming regional elections. In 2013, the CSU secured 47.7 percent of the vote in Bavaria. The party holds 101 seats in the regional parliament, while 91 are needed for an absolute majority.

"Bavaria is very traditional and the Socialists' potential is not very high. Generally, the left in Bavaria, all parties included, get some 35 percent of the vote. But in the last polls, the Greens fare better than the SPD," Michael Weigl, the professor of political sciences at the University of Passau in Bavaria, told Sputnik.

The current campaign's two major topics are security and migration on the one hand and social issues on the other hand, Weigl said.

"The CSU is trying to stress a program of improving housing for the younger population, including social housing, but the main theme remains migration, especially in the border zones, in the South. Bavaria was hit first by the waves of migrants in 2015, 2016, 2017. They were everywhere and the border was closed very late. Resentment has built up," the expert said.

The disagreements between Merkel and Seehofer were "badly perceived," Weigl added.

The handling of Maassen's reassignment may cost Seehofer in this regional election, Andreas Kalbitz, a member of the AfD Federal Executive board, told Sputnik.

"The disposal of this highly esteemed security expert, who took refuge in Horst Seehofer's cabinet shows how humiliated Seehofer can be, time and time again by the chancellor. His total loss of credibility is one of the main reasons why the CSU will suffer a blatant defeat in the state elections in Bavaria," Kalbitz said.

Weigl, in turn, pointed out that Seehofer was not making many appearances at rallies.

"He is perceived by the CSU candidates as too polarizing, not good for mobilizing people, though he is still the head of the party," University of Passau scholar said.

All in all, Weigl is expecting the results of the election in Bavaria to be comparable with the rest of the country.