RPT: REVIEW - Macron's Party Trails Behind Le Pen's National Rally In Polls 3 Weeks Before EU Elections

BRUSSELS (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 07th May, 2019) France's right-wing National Rally (RN) party overtook President Emmanuel Macron's La Republique En Marche! (LREM, or LaREM) in a weekend Ipsos poll amid the nearing European Parliament elections, yet some experts believe that it is too early to make conclusions as the campaign has not yet fully crystallized in the country.

An Ipsos/Sopra-Steria poll showed on Sunday that the RN party has the support of 22 percent of respondents, while LREM is backed by 21.5 percent. The poll � which was conducted on May 2-3 among 1,500 people � came after Macron, in his 2.5-hour speech on April 25, outlined a second list of economic proposals, including 5 billion Euros in tax cuts, in another bid to reconquer public opinion amid continued yellow vest protests.

POLLS PREDICT HARD FIGHT FOR MACRON'S PARTY

Though it is the first time Ipsos, one of the most respected polling institutes in France, has shown RN's win, other surveys have been clearly indicating a rebound in the party's popularity over the last few weeks.

For instance, earlier, an Ifop-Fiducial poll of voter intentions showed Le Pen's party was on track to win 22.5 percent of the vote while Macron's LREM was going to get 21.5 percent. The Conservative Republicans Party would meanwhile be backed by 15 percent, while the Europe Ecology - The Greens group and the leftist party France Unbowed (La France Insoumise) party would get 9 percent and 8.5 percent respectively, according to the Ifop-Fiducial survey which was conducted from April 29 to May 2.

A third separate poll by OpinionWay-Tilder for Les Echos newspaper and Radio Classique was even worse for the president's list. It showed RN's three-percentage point lead over LREM, putting the former at 24 percent and the latter at 21 percent.

The BVA Orange survey for Europe 1 radio and financial newspaper La Tribune showed LREM at 22 percent and RN at 21 percent.

Amid RN's rising rating, the French minister for relations with parliament, Marc Fesneau, even tried to downplay the poll numbers on Friday.

"The polls mean nothing because the French haven't gotten into the swing of the EU campaign yet... It is true that the campaign will not be easy. I warn voters against far-right parties like the RN bent on deconstructing Europe," Fesneau told French Sud Radio.

GAP WITHIN ERROR MARGIN YET POLL STILL SIGNIFICANT

Pierre Vercauteren, a professor of political sciences of Belgium's Catholic University of Louvain, agrees that the campaign has not yet started in a full blown manner.

"I remind you that the results of these polls are in the margin of error (between 1 and 3%). The campaign is still indecisive. The great themes have not yet broken through, the campaign has not yet crystallized. The project of the LREM list is not yet articulated clearly. It was probably the will of President Macron to start the campaign late, to give it a decisive momentum in the last weeks," Vercauteren told Sputnik.

He therefore believes that the uncertainty is "very great" and does not rule out that some party could make a "good last-minute score."

"Another problem for any party is that an announced victory demobilizes the electorate. In the case of the European Elections, there are no outstanding personalities, the fight will be done on the programs and the RN leaves with a head start.

A sanction vote of Macron? Maybe but let's first see the LaREM program. What we can say in any case is that the other major parties, Republicans, les Insoumis de Mélenchon (hard left) as well as the Greens are very absent from this beginning of campaign. We'll see clearer in a week or two," he concluded.

Gilles Lebreton, the head of the RN delegation in the European Parliament, however, believes that a poll by Ipsos is quite indicative.

"The fact that the Ipsos poll - which is usually more negative towards the RN than others � is obliged to admit our lead, even if only small for the moment, proves that we are clearly ahead of [LREM top candidate] Nathalie Loiseau's list. It is confirmed, with better figures by OpinionWay in Les Echos," Lebreton told Sputnik.

According to Lebreton, RN's lead will hold, given "president Macron's unpopular persistence" and despite his daily tv presence "during his campaign-like 'great debate.'"

The lawmaker suggested that, during his April 25 press conference, Macron effectively embraced some of RN's ideas, "like a much tougher control of migration."

"The French were not duped by this last-minute rallying cry or by the financial promises, made upon the head of their children, increasing the French debt ... Globally, for the election on May 23-26, the French are favourable to us because 1) our sovereigntist discourse is clear, 2) and the elections intervene at a time when the French want to sanction Macron," Lebreton argued.

Speaking of the issue of RN's demonization in media and political discourse, Lebreton opined that it sometimes even played into the party's hands.

"The ridiculous comments by some about an end of civilization, or a wave of 'brown plague' over Europe, if the RN and fellow 'populist' parties win these elections are so extreme that the citizens understand it is not true. We are patriots above all, sovereigntists. We need a European Union of course, an economic free trade area, but none of the Europeist dreams defended by Macron and his list," he said.

Benjamin Biard, a political sciences professor at the University of Louvain, similarly told Sputnik that "despite its change of presidency and the change of name and logo" back in 2018, RN was "still suffering" from a demonization on the part of traditional parties.

Biard, however, opined that RN had not always helped to detach itself from some unfavorable parallels with the most far-right forces.

On the other side, "this demonization also benefited RN ... allowing it to strengthen its visibility and capture an electorate dissatisfied with the traditional political offer," he added.

Commenting on the polls, he recalled that in 2014, "Marine Le Pen's list was the first party in terms of votes obtained.

"This poll seems to be going in the same direction for this new vote. Beyond the ideological reasons that can lead the electorate to vote in favour of the RN list, let's not forget that the RN list is composed of people who have gained visibility in recent years," the expert said.

He noted that the party had recently become much more "visible" both at a national and international level, especially ahead of the May 26 European elections.