RPT - Truss Walks Tightrope Between Revising Northern Ireland Protocol, Pleasing US - Experts

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 25th September, 2022) OSCOW, September 25 (Sputnik), Kirill Krasilnikov - UK Prime MOSCOW (Pakistan Point news / Sputnik - 25th September, 2022) inister Liz Truss is facing a massive dilemma as she is attempting to override the Northern Ireland Protocol without creating tensions between the United Kingdom and the United States over the issue, experts told Sputnik.

Under the protocol, which is a part of the Brexit deal between the UK and the European Union all goods and animal-based products coming from the rest of the British territories must be checked upon arrival in Northern Ireland to ensure their compatibility with EU sanitary regulations.

In June, the UK government introduced a bill unilaterally revising the provisions of the Northern Ireland Protocol, arguing that the deal is not working, as it causes delays and interruptions to goods moving between the UK and Northern Ireland.

The bill stipulates the establishment of a "green channel" for goods transported from the UK to Northern Ireland, as well as the change in the tax rules, is stripping the European Court of its role as the sole arbiter of disputes.

This move drew the ire of the EU and pushed Brussels to take legal action against London, while also criticized by the United States, with the administration of President Joe Biden making it clear that efforts to undo the protocol would undermine any trade talks between Washington and London. The White House is taking the issue seriously due to concerns that tampering with the trade arrangement may jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement, which put an end to sectarian violence between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland.

Earlier in the week, Biden and Truss met at the United Nations, reaffirming their commitment to upholding the agreement. Meanwhile, UK media reported that the prime minister is hoping to settle the issue of the agreement's 25th anniversary, which will take place on April 10, 2023, as London is eyeing Biden visiting the country for the occasion.

During this summer's Tory leadership contest, Truss, who was the country's foreign minister at the time, expressed her determination to deliver the bill, which now puts her at odds with the UK's main ally.

"This is a major headache for Truss and it's not at all clear whether, and how, she resolves it," Robert Singh, a professor of politics at Birkbeck, University of London, said, adding that "for Washington, this is a key issue - not only for the Biden administration but for Congress as well, where concern over the protocol is bipartisan."

The expert went on to say that due to Truss' hard-line stance on the campaign trail, she is now risking antagonizing many Tory lawmakers, the majority of whom did not even vote for her.

Nevertheless, he suggested that Truss would compromise in the end as she has too much on her plate already and most UK voters are not concerned with the protocol, meaning she will not face significant political blowback.

"Perhaps most important, she cannot afford to lose the US. Brexit has made the UK more dependent on the US than ever, and Biden is not sentimental about the relationship. Any danger to the Good Friday Agreement will get a serious, punitive response from Washington," Singh concluded.

While Truss may be eager to establish a good rapport with the US, the prime minister may also find a tough audience in Washington as evidenced by the Biden administration's stance on the protocol as well as the president's blunt dismissal of "trickle-down economics," a pejorative term for free-market policies often associated with Ronald Reagan and Truss' hero, Margaret Thatcher.

The prime minister also admitted that a trade deal between the two countries is unlikely to happen in the near future, which, accidentally, may allow her to address the issue of protocol, according to Mark Garnett, a senior lecturer at the Department of Politics, Philosophy and Religion at Lancaster University,

"With no deal in sight Truss might feel more freedom to deal with the Northern Ireland protocol, since Biden has been using trade as leverage to prevent Truss from making any decisions which might conflict with Northern Ireland's Good Friday Agreement," Garnett said, suggesting that the prime minister may feel that she can now make changes to the trade arrangement that would annoy Washington but would not result in a serious breach in relations.

Despite all the controversy surrounding the issue, Singh thinks it is possible for Truss to revise the protocol before the peace deal anniversary, even though it will require tough negotiations with Brussels as well as a compromise over the checks on UK products going to Northern Ireland.

"I suspect Brussels will be willing, if the UK is genuine, to make some minor concessions to allow Truss to appear to have dealt with the issue. Probably not much will change in substance since the problem is not open to definitive resolution. But Truss will 'spin' whatever emerges as a victory, especially if the Stormont legislature is back and running again," Singh said.

But even if Truss manages to achieve that and also get Biden to come to the UK for the anniversary this may not a much of a diplomatic victory since, as Garnett noted, "relations between the two leaders are unlikely ever to be warm."

"If Biden visits the UK any time soon, he will be more attracted by the good publicity he would receive back home from meetings with Britain's new King," the expert concluded.