RPT: YEAR IN REVIEW - Trump Re-Election Bid Upended By Pandemic

WASHINGTON (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 04th January, 2021) A fierce struggle for the White House dominated US headlines in 2020, culminating in an election that saw historic turnout, a record number of mail-in votes amid the COVID-19 pandemic, and chaos sown by the incumbent's refusal to concede.

The 2020 election, pitting Republican President Donald Trump against Democratic challenger Joe Biden, was at its core a struggle for legitimacy. Since the day he was elected in 2016, adversaries accused Trump of being an illegitimate president based on charges that were later found to be baseless.

Four years later Republicans are peddling claims of large-scale vote fraud despite conclusions to the contrary by the Justice Department and several election security agencies. However, the only thing truly surprising about these developments is that Democrats would be surprised at the Republican strategy. Reciprocity, after all, is a natural law in politics.

Trump has embraced this principle until the bitter end, however, pushing allegations that voting machines were manipulated and the record deluge of mail-in ballots fueled widespread fraud. Even after the election results were officially certified by mid-December, effectively clearing the way for Joe Biden to occupy the White House on January 20, the president remained defiant.

"Tremendous evidence pouring in on voter fraud. There has never been anything like this in our Country!" Trump said in a tweet on December 15, a day after the Electoral College met to officially confirm Biden's victory.

The Democratic Party's initial strategy to ensure Trump would not be a threat in 2020 failed when the Senate acquitted the president of impeachment charges stemming from the prior year over allegations of freezing aid to Kiev in exchange for a probe of the Biden family's business dealings in Ukraine.

The Democratic-controlled House easily impeached Trump at the end of last year, but removing the president required 67 of 100 votes in the Republican-majority Senate. In the end, the Senate voted 52-48 to acquit Trump on the first article of impeachment charging him with abuse of power and 53-47 on the second article regarding obstruction of Congress.

Trump prevailed largely because impeachment is a political process and Republicans in the Senate saw no reason to take the risk of crossing party lines.

"The short answer is that there was nothing there. Even hyping the Ukraine/good, Russia/bad meme - to which virtually all [Republican] Senators subscribe - was insufficient to overcome Trump's popularity with the Republican voter base," former Senate Republican adviser Jim Jatras told Sputnik after the acquittal in February.

Trump, emerging stronger from the impeachment battle with his approval rating hitting a high of 49%, was now more prepared to focus on the race. Meanwhile, the Democratic primaries had kicked-off, which would ultimately end with the party consolidating around Biden as the safest pick.

With Trump surviving impeachment and Biden surviving the Democratic primaries, the two candidates were set for a general election collision of mammoth proportions amid two ongoing national crises. The pandemic and protests over police violence would have a profound impact on the 2020 race, with Trump drawing criticism on his handling of the former and Biden coming under fire for his reaction to the latter.

The United States under Trump's watch became the world leader in confirmed cases of COVID-19 - which has now infected about 17 million Americans. Critics have argued that the numbers could be much lower if the Trump took the crisis more seriously.

The Trump administration, instead of choosing to take any responsibility, decided to blame the crisis on China. The vicious campaign to smear Beijing included outrageous claims, top among them being that the virus came out of a Wuhan lab when, in fact, the genetic code released in January showed it was naturally derived.

In September, Trump controversially admitted that he knew the virus was a bigger threat than the way he represented it publicly, arguing that he had to show calm as the country's leader.

"You cannot show a sense of panic, or you can have bigger problems than you have had before," Trump told reporters in response to an audio clip released by a journalist from an interview earlier in the year revealing the president's admission.

Less than a month before election day Trump made matters worse by continuing to downplay the virus even after contracting it. After about a three-day hospital stay for COVID-19 treatment, Trump warned Americans not to be frightened of the pandemic because the United States has the best equipment.

"I'm back because I am a perfect physical specimen and I'm extremely young. And so I'm lucky in that way," Trump said.

Biden, in contrast, strictly followed the COVID-19 guidelines and called on Trump to listen to the scientists and do the same.

The pandemic of course directly affected the race because it fundamentally altered the voting process, with several states changing rules to expand mail-in or absentee voting. Because Democrats took the virus more seriously, the influx of mail-in ballots was expected to boost Biden. Trump, as a result, repeatedly claimed the mailed ballots would fuel widespread vote fraud.

The other major crisis that impacted the election, protests against police violence, turned into a double-edged sword for Trump. On one hand he was criticized for deploying Federal agents to quell protests in several Democratic-run cities. On the other hand, polls showed independent voters were worried about the scenes of violence and looting, as Biden took heat for failing to immediately call on rioters to stop.

The national conventions in August showed how radically different the two candidates approached both crises. The Democratic Party held a nearly all-virtual affair where they promoted a message of racial equality.

Trump, in contrast, ran as the "law and order" candidate, warning Americans that Biden would allow radical anarchists to destroy the country. His remark came at a gala on the White House lawn with no social-distancing or masks to be seen.

The candidates sparred during two debates over a range of domestic issues such as immigration, tax cuts, trade and energy, among others. Trump threatened to harm Biden's chances in some rust belt battleground states by claiming the former vice president wanted to ban fracking. Biden did however suggest during one of the debates that he wanted to transition the US economy from fossil fuels.

The race was so dominated by domestic crises and issues, little attention was paid to any foreign policy issues outside of repeated exchanges about which candidate could be tougher on China.

Trump did try to contrast himself from Biden on foreign interventions, especially by underscoring how his administration struck a peace deal with the Taliban which activated a US troop exit from Afghanistan after 19 years. Trump has even attempted to accelerate the process and before the election vowed to bring all US troops home by Christmas.

There was also little time to focus on the typical foreign meddling claims. As the election neared, US intelligence leaders accused China, Russia, and Iran of obtaining voter registration data. Yet officials from all three countries denied the allegations and said they supported no particular candidate.

Scandals of course played a role in the race with the president and his allies hoping to pull a game-changing "October surprise," by capitalizing on Biden's alleged role in Hunter Biden's business dealings in Ukraine. Focus groups revealed that it had some impact among independent voters, who felt the media failed to appropriately cover the allegations.

The US Electoral College format requires candidates to win statewide elections, not national popular vote. The winner of the election must secure at least 270 of 538 electoral votes that are apportioned across 50 states. For example, although Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by around 2% in 2016, she lost the election because Trump won more electoral votes.

The election boiled down to about 12 so-called battleground states, the biggest prizes being Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia. Although Biden held a national lead of 8% on the eve of the election, the margins in key swing states were much tighter.

The first wave of election results pouring in on November 3 looked positive for Trump, especially when he was projected to win Florida.

Trump was trailing Biden in projected electoral votes but was leading in five out of six critical states before the night ended with both candidates declaring victory.

"I'm here to tell you tonight we believe we're on track to win this election," Biden said at a press conference.

At his presser, Trump took the stage to the tune of "Hail to the Chief" a song played at presidential inauguration ceremonies.

"This is a fraud on the American public - this is an embarrassment to our country," Trump said in the early hours of November 4. "We were getting ready to win this election, frankly, we did win this election."

Trump said his campaign was going to the US Supreme Court to halt the vote count.

"We will be going to [the] US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don't want them to find any ballots at 4 o'clock in the morning and add them to the list," Trump said.

Many Trump supporters were severely disappointed on November 5, considering before they went to sleep the prior night it appeared their candidate was on track to win pivotal states and had a clear path to victory. However, most of some 65 million mail-in ballots had yet to be counted. The fact states continued to receive and count mail-in ballots after the actual election day, only helped fuel fraud claims and spark protests.

In any event, four days later every US media outlet projected Biden the winner of the election the moment he captured the tipping point state of Pennsylvania. Most outlets had him securing at least 290 electoral votes with the state of Georgia still too close the call. After several recounts Georgia would eventually fall to Biden weeks later.

Biden would ultimately end up capturing a record 81.2 million votes overall, more than 51% of the total, to Trump's 74.2 million (47%). More importantly, Biden ended up winning 306 electoral votes, which represented 56% of the total.

The 2020 election also set the all-time record for total votes cast with nearly 160 million, about 20% more than 2016.

Of all the factors identified, Trump's behavior in the face of the pandemic might have been the largest contributing factor to his failure. Even his allies admitted the crisis, which also erased historic economic gains, led to his downfall.

"If he loses, it's going to be because of covid," Ronna McDaniel, chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, said shortly before Election Day.

In March, a Navigator Research poll showed 53% of Americans supported Trump's handling of the crisis, a level that would plummet 26 percent by October.

Post-election analyses revealed that Trump lost votes in large suburban areas in key battleground states, especially among women. Going into election night, both campaigns knew Trump would likely continue to perform strongly in rural areas and smaller suburbs while Biden would dominate in urban areas. Hence, voters in large suburbs just outside the big cities were seen as potentially decisive in many states. Trump's mishandling of the pandemic may have tilted the balance in Biden's favor in suburbia.

According to a New York Times analysis, Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's performance in 373 suburban counties by nearly 5 points, which helped him prevail in the key Midwestern states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin as well as Arizona and Georgia. Although the overall movement in the suburbs was not massive, a slight nudge is all Biden needed in these states where his gap with Trump ended up being razor-thin.

Minorities voted in record numbers in Democratic strongholds in all of these states, especially the urban areas, although Trump, remarkably, defied expectations by improving his performance among Blacks and Hispanic voters.

With respect to pre-election polls, although they were accurate in projecting Biden as the winner, the surveys once again underestimated support for Trump, largely because his base distrusts pollsters. On election eve, most polls had Biden ahead nationally by 8%, yet he ended up winning by less than 5 percent.

The top three poll aggregators were inflated in Biden's favor in 11 of the top 12 battleground states by an average of more than 5 percent.

The polls were also considerably off in the congressional races, where the Democrats expected to expand the number of seats controlled in the House and secure more than 50 seats in the 100-member Senate, neither of which happened.

Shortly prior to the election, Trump fast-tracked confirmation of Supreme Court pick Amy Coney Barrett because he felt the election would be decided before the high court. His prediction was accurate, but he would end up disappointed with the ultimate ruling.

Trump repeatedly claimed massive fraud took place despite the fact several US federal and state election security agencies said the 2020 vote was the safest in US history. Moreover, Trump's own Justice Department said they found no fraud at a scale that would affect the results.

Bill Boerum a former state of California Election Inspector, predicted - accurately - that the 2020 US presidential election would be "the most litigated" in American history.

At the center of Trump's objections was the unprecedented amount of mail-in ballots. Several states moved the mail-in ballot deadline, which many Republicans felt was unconstitutional.

However, courts at every level disagreed with the Trump campaign's legal arguments. Voting rights advocacy group Democracy Docket said the Trump campaign and its allies, as of December 14, had lost 59 of 60 lawsuits filed to reverse the results in at least six battleground states.

Trump's crusade at times bordered on the Lovecraftian. At one press conference the president's personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani -with hair dye running down both of his cheeks - claimed foreign powers had manipulated election systems to flip votes from Trump to Biden.

The dagger through the heart of Trump's cause may have been a Supreme Court decision on December 11. The high court's decision was effectively unanimous - with all three Trump-appointed justices siding with the majority.

The decision prompted a backlash in Trumpdom, with Texas Republican Party Chairman Allen West calling on states to secede from the Union. The setback did not change the president's outlook.

"The Supreme Court really let us down. No Wisdom, No Courage!" Trump said in a tweet after the ruling.

Trump's court challenges also hindered the beginning of the transition process, although the president agreed to allow some of the procedures to begin. Biden, for his part, generally ignored Trump's lawsuits and has already named several cabinet ministers, many of whom have troubling track records.

BIDEN'S AGENDA AND THE FUTURE OF TRUMPDOM

Biden on the campaign trail has made clear that he will differ from Trump in terms of both substance and style, beginning with reversing many of the president's decisions to exit treaties. Biden said he wants to see the US reenter the Paris climate accord and the Iran nuclear deal and wants to extend the New START treaty. Biden also plans to end Trump's travel ban and rollback other stringent immigration-related policies.

However, some of his top cabinet picks, including Antony Blinken as Secretary of State, have track records of supporting interventions in Syria, Libya, Afghanistan and Ukraine, among others. Former UK ambassador to Syria Peter Ford believes Biden's cabinet selection means the US may escalate interference in Syria and elsewhere.

"The scene is set for more counter-productive US belligerence and interference in the middle East," Ford told Sputnik after Biden announced Blinken would be his top diplomat.

Meanwhile, despite the outcome of the 2020 election, Trump himself - and the phenomenon known as Trumpism - will not be going away anytime soon. Trump at a rally in early December did not rule out a 2024 presidential run and predicted that the Republican Party would seize the House in 2022.

Trump has also been involved in trying to shape two runoff senate races that will affect who controls the US Senate. The Democrats need to win at least one of the races to secure 50 seats, which gives them an effective majority because the vice president will play the role of tiebreaker in votes.

Former Green Party vice presidential candidate Ajamu Baraka told Sputnik that he believes Trump could exert more influence on US politics even in defeat, potentially complicating any efforts at uniting the country.

US Congressman Jim Banks, the next head of the Republican Study Committee - a caucus of social conservatives - said Trumpism will certainly persist despite the election result.

"Trump taught us how to fight and win with an agenda that appeals to a popular base," Banks told reporters after the election. "House conservatives must follow his example and carry the Trump message the next two years."