RPT: YEAR IN REVIEW - US Plans Troops Pullout As Syria Seeks To Form Constitution Committee, Demilitarize Idlib

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 22nd December, 2018) The Syrian crisis settlement in 2018 has seen both positive developments and painful setbacks: from the landmark National Dialogue Congress in Sochi, several false flag chemical attacks, and the West's ensuing tripartite aggression, to important achievements of the Astana peace process and the US announcement of its planned withdrawal from the Arab republic.

Although the US announcement, made days before the end of the year, has quickly hit headlines, it failed to shed any light over future plans of Washington, which only remarked that it was moving to the next phase of its campaign against the Islamic State (IS, ISIS, banned in Russia) terror group in Syria. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in particular, recalled that the United States declared its pullout from Afghanistan every year, but still had been there for 17 years.

Meanwhile, throughout the year, it was various remaining terror hotbeds that, one after another, gripped international attention as the Syrian army was recapturing its territory from terrorists. In September, in a bid to avert a humanitarian catastrophe in one of such terrorist strongholds, Putin and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan reached an agreement on a demilitarized zone in Idlib.

Even though not all militants have laid down weapons and sporadic violence continued, the number of truce breaches in the region has decreased significantly. The Idlib memorandum was crucial to preventing a full-scale military operation in the region, which is home to not only terrorist groups, but also a large civilian population.

The humanitarian issue in general has been very high on agenda throughout the year. With most of the heavy fighting now over, the Syrian government has started rebuilding its country and welcoming back its fellow citizens who were forced to flee the armed conflict. Russia, in turn, has been actively assisting the process.

Certain progress has also been made toward forming the Syrian constitutional committee, yet the the process' stakeholders have so far failed to settle differences, but pledged to undertake efforts to convene the body in Geneva in early 2019.

NATIONAL DIALOGUE CONGRESS IN SOCHI

The decision to launch the process of a constitutional review was agreed upon during the Syrian National Dialogue Congress in Sochi on January 29-30. Russian officials stressed that the congress sought to revive the Geneva peace process.

As a result, the one-day pinnacle event of the Russian diplomacy, which brought together over 1,500 delegates from Syria's government and opposition, managed to produce the results that had not been achieved during the years of UN-led indirect Geneva talks.

At the same time, the link with Geneva was respected: UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura, who was present at the talks, was tasked with working on the body's composition and procedures, while the Swiss city was defined as the location of the future committee.

Nevertheless, the heated debates during the congress, absence of certain foreign-based opposition groups, Turkey's strong opposition to any Kurdish participants with ties to the People's Protection Units (YPG) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD), as well as US reluctance to support the process pointed to tremendous work that lay ahead.

"We have deep divergences between regional and international actors [acting in Syria] which was also the case in Libya for example, which impacts the solution in Syria. It becomes an impairment. These divergences simply threaten to prolong the crisis in Syria ... The Geneva and the Astana process advance in parallel, but at the same time the differences between these actors add to the regional divergences," Didier Billion, the deputy director of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS), told Sputnik.

The diplomatic efforts in Sochi were unfolding against the backdrop of Turkey's operation in Afrin, the northern Syrian district controlled by the US-backed YPG and PYD militias, which Ankara considers to be terrorist organizations associated with its rival Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

Damascus firmly condemned the operation as an assault on Syria's sovereignty. Moscow, in turn, urged all the parties to exercise restraint and called for respect of Syria's territorial integrity.

Meanwhile, the situation in Eastern Ghouta was also growing tense. Over several months, local militants were shelling Damascus, including the area of Russia's embassy, with Syrian pro-government forces responding with retaliatory fire.

The situation prompted the UN Security Council in February to unanimously adopt Resolution 2401. The document urged all conflicting sides to immediately adhere to a long-term humanitarian ceasefire across the entire Syrian territory to ensure delivery of humanitarian aid supplies, as well as medical evacuation of injured people. The cessation of hostilities did not apply to terrorist groups.

Soon after the resolution's adoption, Russia announced a daily five-hour humanitarian pause in the fighting to stop casualties among the population and to let civilians leave Eastern Ghouta.

On April 7, when the Syrian government was close to announcing the area to be freed of militants, reports about an alleged chemical attack in Eastern Ghouta's Duma emerged. The European Union and the United States promptly accused Damascus of being behind the attack, with President Donald Trump claiming that Russia bore responsibility for not preventing the alleged attack.

Damascus, which has repeatedly said it got rid of its chemical weapons stockpiles as confirmed by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), denied any involvement in the Duma incident. The Syrian government and Russia said that the attack was staged by local militants and non-governmental organization White Helmets, which enjoys great support in the West.

A week later, without waiting for the results of the international investigation, the United States, the United Kingdom and France hit what they called Damascus' chemical weapons facilities with over 100 missiles in response to the reported attack.

The "chemical attack" in Duma was used by the West to maintain the narrative of Russia's alleged "reckless use of chemical weapons that stretches from Syria to the streets of Salisbury." Making a link between the Duma events and the alleged attempted poisoning of Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia on March 4, the United Kingdom successfully pushed through the initiative to expand the OPCW mandate to assigning responsibility for chemical weapons attacks.

Moscow has denounced the move as politicized and illegitimate, arguing that only the UN Security Council is eligible to make such judgments.

Throughout the year, the Russian Defense Ministry has regularly reported about movements of the White Helmets and their activities in plotting chemical attacks aimed at framing the Syrian government.

Months after the Duma incident, the international focus switched to the Syrian province of Idlib, the major remaining stronghold and the base for approximately 10,000 members of the Nusra Front and Al Qaeda terrorist groups (both banned in Russia), according to the United Nations.

The tense situation was exacerbated in September by powerful information campaign against the Syrian government forces' potential offensive in the region, with Western countries citing humanitarian concerns and threatening Damascus with action in case it launched a "reckless" operation in the region, which is also home to about 3 million civilians.

The situation in the Idlib de-escalation zone and ways to minimize risks for civilian population related to the counterterrorism fight were the focal points of the Russia-Turkey-Iran summit in Tehran on September 7.

Even though Erdogan insisted on incorporating the provision on a truce in Idlib in the final document, the leaders of the Syrian ceasefire guarantor states finally opted against the truce provision and instead called on the militants in Idlib to cease hostilities.

Days after the summit, Putin and Erdogan held talks in Sochi, during which they agreed to set up a 9-12 mile demilitarized zone in Idlib along the contact line between the armed opposition and the government forces by October 15. The withdrawal of heavy weaponry operated by the militants is also part of the agreement.

Though not all militants have adhered to the deal, the level of violence has decreased significantly, which was also acknowledged by the United States. In particular, Special Representative for Syria Engagement James Jeffrey said that the zone was generally holding, noting that the chances of achieving a breakthrough in the country were better now than they were six months ago.

Moscow and Ankara, meanwhile, have continued maintaining contacts on further efforts to prop up the demilitarization zone in the province, with Russia saying that it reserves the right to help Damascus if terrorists use the demilitarized zone as a cover to launch attacks on the rest of Syria.

"I think that Putin knows that the task is very difficult and prefers to give Turkey time. But I think clearly Turkey has its own interests. They are trying [to disarm opposition groups that Ankara has influence on], but I think they will never succeed in disarming or dissolving the jihadi groups.

They are trying to win some time, but everyone understands that the main problem of Turkey is not jihadi, but obviously the Kurdish forces. What worries them a lot is multiple contacts between Kurds and Damascus," billion suggested.

Brahim Oumansour, an IRIS researcher specializing in the middle East, in turn, noted that Ankara was highly interested in stable situation in Idlib, as a full-scale military campaign in the region would have resulted in more refugees fleeing to Turkey.

"Intervention in Idlib will exacerbate the refugee crisis at the Turkish border. So it's Turkey who will suffer from the military intervention in the first place. So political solution requires a much larger coalition. An intervention in Idlib can be catastrophic at the humanitarian level and it can make political solution much more difficult because it will deepen the conflict with the opposition and jeopardize the Astana process as well, which puts forward the negotiation between the opposition and the Syrian regime," Oumansour told Sputnik.

On the same day when Putin and Erdogan agreed on the demilitarized zone in Idlib, tragic news came from Syria, where a Russian Il-20 military plane with 15 servicemen onboard was downed by a missile launched by a Syrian S-200 air defense system while the latter was repelling Israeli F-16 jets' air raid in Latakia.

The Russian Defense Ministry put the blame for the crash on the Israeli Air Force, accusing it of using the Il-20 as a shield against the Syrian air defense systems, notifying Russia of its operation in Latakia only a minute before the attack and also failing to provide accurate location of its jets.

According to the ministry, Israel breached bilateral agreements meant to avoid flight safety incidents, something that Russia had always strictly honored. Moscow also recalled that it had consistently taken into account Israel's security concerns with regard to Syria and facilitated the withdrawal of all Iran-backed formations from the Golan Heights at Israeli request, and pledged to overhaul its approaches.

As part of measures to increase the safety of the Russian troops in Syria, Moscow delivered S-300 air defense systems to the country, provoking Israel's concerns that Damascus would be able to control Israeli airspace.

Along with tragic events, the year of 2018 has also seen the establishment of a new format of talks on Syrian settlement � a quadrilateral summit of Putin, Erdogan, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, which took place in Istanbul on October 27.

The leaders expressed their commitment to an "inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned" political process and the country's territorial integrity, and highlighted the need to create conditions for the safe and voluntary return of refugees.

"That was a desire of Vladimir Putin to not have an exclusive relationship with Iran, an attempt to re-integrate Merkel and Macron, but re-integrating them would mean giving them a present, which now means that they are accountable in the eyes of Erdogan and especially Putin. But they don't really count. I think that France, because of the numerous mistakes that it made, just as Germany and the US, have few cards to play," Billion opined.

The issue of reconstruction and refugee return has been high on agenda throughout the year. The future rebuilding of Syria was discussed during the March meeting of guarantor states at foreign ministers level in Astana.

At the next month's summit in Ankara, the leaders of the three guarantor states agreed to "consolidate efforts for post-conflict reconstruction in Syria" with a focus on social infrastructure.

In July, Russian military announced the creation of a refugee center in Syria that would receive, relocate and accommodate civilians who return to their homes from neighboring countries after fleeing hostilities. The reception facilities were established near all major crossing points.

In September, the Syrian capital hosted the Damascus International Fair, whose main focus was placed on reconstruction.

By the end of the year, the efforts to form the Syrian constitutional committee have been intensified, however the process' stakeholders have so far failed to resolve all disagreements around the process.

During the talks of the three guarantor states with de Mistura in Geneva on December 18, the sides failed to reach agreement on the committee's composition.

With lists of participants from the government and opposition agreed, the main fight is ongoing around the third part of the 150-strong committee, the one comprised of civil society representatives.

On December 20, de Mistura stated that the UN Secretariat "would not be totally comfortable yet in giving the UN stamp of legitimacy" to the list of 50 people whom Russia, Iran and Turkey have proposed to serve as civil society representatives for the committee, so there is a "need to go an extra mile."

At his annual press conference on the same day, Putin said that the United Nations had taken a wait-and-see stance on the formation of committee at the behest of France, Germany and the United States.

He stressed that Syrian President Bashar Assad had coordinated the list of 50 representatives from the government and "took part in the formation of the list of another 50 people from the civil society, and, despite the fact that he does not like everything there, he agreed with this."

The president added that Russia did its best to facilitate the process, while Turkey, which represents the interests of the opposition, also agreed with the lists, so did Iran. He finally expressed hope that the Syrian constitutional committee would be created before the end of 2018 or at the beginning of 2019.

"I think that the formula of the constitutional committee is absolutely necessary, even if we know that it will not be created right away, because there are many obstacles. But it's the only realistic political formula which can launch the process ... It is important because at a given moment we will need to re-integrate the Syrian political forces ... After the war it's always like this. We have to work with those who we were fighting with ten years back," Billion said.

His colleague, Oumansour, agreed that one should not expect a "rapid result," as there is a need to ensure that the constitutional committee would be a functional structure.

"It requires a larger integration of the opposition at the national level, so that there is no internal conflict after, to avoid conflict that could emerge between different groups after. Also at the regional and international levels - we need to expand the negotiations. But I don't think it's possible to have results in the upcoming months," Oumansour said.

The key events of the year also reaffirmed that, along with internal discord between the Syrian political forces, the conflicting interests of external actors operating on the battlefield has been another factor holding the peace process back. The examples include: US unauthorized military presence in Syria and attempts to discredit the Astana peace process, Turkey's parallel fight with Syrian Kurds and stand-off over the issue with Washington, Israel's air raids against the alleged Iranian forces in the Arab republic, and the West's bids to link the purported chemical attacks in Syria to wider anti-Russia campaign.

"Why the peace process does not advance faster? There are divergences between Russia and Iran, there are Kurdish groups, certain opposition groups supported by Turkey, there's Turkey itself, all this makes a cohesion extremely complicated ... And I think that France, the US, or Germany are simply spectators, in reality they do not have much levers to act in this situation of a half-blockage, the negotiators do not advance since the differences are too important," Billion suggested.

The United States, with some 2,000 troops in Syria, has, however, quite a concrete military leverage, controlling important outposts and providing the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and armed opposition with weapons and other necessary support in the northwestern Idlib province, northern Kurdish-majority autonomy known as Rojava and a 34-mile zone around its At Tanf base in Syria's southeast.

"The United States regards this territory as pawns in a chess game. It will not surrender any of these pawns except in return for, principally, withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria," former UK Ambassador to Syria Peter Ford told Sputnik on December 6.

All this made the US decision to withdraw its forces from Syria sound like a bombshell. Yet, making an announcement days before the year's end, December 19, the White House has failed to provide any details in terms of its future plans, apart from the remark about certain "next phase" of its counterterrorism campaign in the Arab republic.

The statement followed Trump's tweet, in which he declared the IS defeat and added that this fight was the only reason for US military presence in Syria during his administration. He later remarked that his decision was "no surprise," being something that he has been campaigning for over years.