Scientists Map Coronavirus Path With Computer Models
Mohammad Ali (@ChaudhryMAli88) Published February 14, 2020 | 10:16 PM
As the novel coronavirus spreads around the world, scientists are using the latest computer modelling techniques to predict its fallout: from the eventual number of cases and deaths to the peak of the outbreak
Paris, (APP - UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 14th Feb, 2020 ) :As the novel coronavirus spreads around the world, scientists are using the latest computer modelling techniques to predict its fallout: from the eventual number of cases and deaths to the peak of the outbreak.
Recent decades have seen the power of new computer processors combine with ever-more sophisticated mathematical models to give health authorities a far better idea of how far and fast diseases are likely to spread.
Despite an inevitable margin of error, scientists are now able to predict the path the novel coronavirus, which has already killed nearly 1,400 people, will take.
France's health minister Agnes Buzyn said Friday that she had held telephone talks with her G7 counterparts to expedite modelling of the diseases' eventual spread and severity.
Models are built in a compound manner, taking into account data of the virus's known history -- transmission, mortality and recovery rates -- as well as human behaviour trends, such as air traffic patterns.
But it's not enough to be sophisticated: the best models are also adaptable.
"It's a trade off: the more you refine the model the harder it is to manipulate it and it opens the door to a wide margin of error," said Arnaud Banos, from France's National Centre for Scientific Research.
In order to adapt in real time to outbreak developments, researchers carry out simulations by inserting new data as it emerges.
"This might be the appearance of a new epidemic hotspot or a new public health measure that the model couldn't have foreseen," Banos told AFP.
A British team at the London school of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine used computer modelling this week to estimate that the peak of the outbreak in the virus' epicentre, the Chinese city of Wuhan, could come in mid-to-late February.
"There is of course a lot of uncertainty in exactly when this will occur and how big it might be," said team-member Adam Kucharski.
Rowland KAO, professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science, University of Edinburgh, cautiously welcomed the model results.
"This is an analysis by an experienced and talented team but as always the limitations of the available data will affect their predictions," he said.
Another study published at the beginning of February had modelled that at least 75,000 people were infected in Wuhan.
- AI - Some models compiled at the beginning of outbreaks turn out erroneous results due to the relative lack of data upon which to base them.
This was the case with the BSE outbreak in Britain in the 1990s.
"Some models issued by reputable research groups said there would be as many as 136,000 cases," said the of the Institut Pasteur's Arnaud Fontanet.
"These uncertainties were largely based on assumptions concerning the diseases' incubation period." In total 177 people contracted the disease.
But computer models have come a long way in twenty years, and are increasingly benefiting from input from artificial intelligence.
According to Banos, this allows scientists to pick up on what are termed "weak signals" that could prove crucial in determining the accuracy of models.
"These could be individual exchanges on social media discussing symptoms," he said.
"The idea is to permanently collect mass amounts of data so that weak signals are automatically picked up and related to the evolution of the disease," Banos added.
Related Topics
Recent Stories
Tennis: ATP Barcelona Open results - 1st update
Swiatek's perfect 10 in Stuttgart as Vondrousova stuns Sabalenka
Arandu's roads closed due to flooding
Oil tanker catches fire in Islamabad’s Blue Area
Pakistan committed to ensure safety of foreign nationals: FO
Tennis: WTA Stuttgart results - 1st update
Four passengers injured as train hit an empty vehicle
Over- speeding bus crushed to death two bike riders
Turkey's Freedom Flotilla ready to set sail for Gaza
French teen dies from heart failure after knife attack near school
Iranians appear unfazed by Isfahan blasts
UAF celebrates Int'l Chinese Language Day
More Stories From World
-
Calls for calm after reported Israeli strike on Iran
14 minutes ago -
IMF calls on EU to deepen single market integration to boost growth
14 minutes ago -
Second Ecuadoran mayor killed ahead of anti-crime referendum: police
14 minutes ago -
Oil, gas drilling blocked in Alaska wilds as Biden seeks green cred
1 hour ago -
Man sets self on fire outside Trump trial
1 hour ago -
Turkey's Freedom Flotilla ready to set sail for Gaza
2 hours ago
-
French teen dies from heart failure after knife attack near school
2 hours ago -
Iranians appear unfazed by Isfahan blasts
3 hours ago -
Ecuador mayor killed ahead of anti-crime referendum: police
3 hours ago -
Croatia top court bars president from becoming next PM
3 hours ago -
Lacking storm drains, Dubai sees persistent flooding
4 hours ago -
West Bank villagers vigilant but vulnerable after settler attacks
4 hours ago