Tokyo Seeks More Voice, But 5 Eyes 'Exclusive' Club Unlikely To Accept Its Full Membership

The full membership of Japan in the so-called "Five Eyes" intelligence alliance of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States is not likely to happen, however, by joining it in any capacity, Tokyo may have more weight and thus will be able to have more voice in the intelligence-sharing with Washington

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 28th August, 2020) The full membership of Japan in the so-called "Five Eyes" intelligence alliance of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States is not likely to happen, however, by joining it in any capacity, Tokyo may have more weight and thus will be able to have more voice in the intelligence-sharing with Washington, analysts told Sputnik, adding that the inclusion of Tokyo would be beneficial to all partners.

The speculations about Japan becoming a 'sixth eye' recently made headlines after Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono said that Tokyo was eager to expand cooperation with the "Five Eyes" intelligence-sharing group.

"These [Five Eyes] countries share the same values. Japan can get closer [to the alliance] even to the extent of it being called the 'Six Eyes'," Kono said.

The origins of the Five Eyes alliance go back to the 1940s-1950s. In the post-World War II period, the member nations, as it was revealed later, monitored the communications of the former Soviet Union and the Eastern Bloc, the group of communist states of Central and Eastern Europe, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, the club further expanded its capabilities during the "war on terror," with much emphasis placed on monitoring the internet.

The alliance came hugely under fire after the revelations of former National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden who revealed that the club was spying on one another's citizens and sharing the information. The notable examples of the surveillance programs, which were used to spy on the citizens, include PRISM, XKeyscore and Tempora.

IDEA SHOULD BE 'CAREFULLY DISSECTED'

Dr. Ian Stewart, executive director at James Martin Center for Non-proliferation Studies believes that the idea of 'Six Eyes' alliance should be "carefully dissected."

"The 5 eyes community already cooperate quite systematic intelligence sharing with certain countries on certain issues (for example, with regards to Japan on North Korea) rather than across all intelligence domains. Such issue-specific expansion of 5 eyes is foreseeable," he said.

However, that does not require sharing across all intelligence domains and as a result, it may not require the alliance's expansion, he said, adding that even within the alliance the data are shared "on a need to know basis."

While the membership of Japan is possible in the alliance, it is unlikely that it would be full, Dr. Jack Holland, associate professor in International Security at the University of Leeds told Sputnik.

"It is unlikely to extend to full membership of what is a very exclusive club based on centuries of mutual history, shared values, a common culture and the English language," he said.

He, however, admitted that the inclusion of Tokyo into the alliance would be beneficial to all partners.

"However, Democracy is important for these states but will not override the other intangible things that hold the alliance together. We have seen the temporary inclusion of other states in specific circumstances previously, such as the Netherlands," he noted.

The Netherlands, along with Denmark, France, Norway and other countries is in the group of nations dubbed "3rd Party Partners," which share their intelligence data with the club.

BOOSTING JAPAN'S STRATEGIC DECISION-MAKING CAPABILITY

One of the possible factors of Japan's desire to join the alliance is to somehow have its say in decision-making, Professor Robert Patman from the University of Otago told Sputnik.

"The Trump administration's foreign policy, through Japanese eyes, may sometimes appears erratic and unpredictable over issues like North Korea, which, in turn, could have increased Japan's interest in an intelligence sharing arrangement involving the United States," Patman, whose research concern global security, said.

He believes that from the perspective of Tokyo, it is a good time to join the alliance given its territorial disputes with Russia and China.

Yet, he does not think that the membership in the alliance will make Japan more subordinate to the US.

"On the contrary, having expanded access to more intelligence, could boost Japan's independent foreign and strategic decision-making capability. After all, Japan is a major economic power in the world in its own right and does not have identical interests to the US with respect to relations with China, Russia or even South Korea," he said.

Adding Japan to the Five Eyes list may streamline some existing processes, Joshua H. Pollack, senior research associate at James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies of Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey told Sputnik.

"I suspect that for Tokyo, it would be mainly a way of demonstrating that Japan is not isolated, that it has friends and allies in the region and around the world. So if anything, it would be a way to reduce the appearance of depending solely on the United States," he said.

Japan has been "a stalwart member" of the international community in the post-WWII period, and it also built a "strong institutional and normative ties" with the Five Eyes nations, Stephen Nagy, a senior associate professor at the Department of politics and International Studies at Tokyo's International Christian University told Sputnik.

"Sharing many of the same concerns as the current members of the 5 Eyes club and having capabilities that would working synergistically, it seems time that Japan joins the current club to deal with global challenges and revisions systems and non-state actors," he said.

Nagy believes that under Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan has sought to deepen its partnership with the US.

"This will continue whether President Trump is reelected or not as it reflects Japan's long-term interest of having more of a voice in the partnership and the challenges Japan faces in the region," he said, adding that Tokyo would not be subordinate to the US if it joins the alliance.

CONTAINING CHINA NOT COMMON GOAL

As soon as reports about Japan's possible inclusion into the Five Eyes club were released, speculations emerged that one of the main goals of the Six Eyes would be the containment of China.

Stewart believes that containing Beijing is not the sole common goal of the Five Eyes alliance.

"There is growing concern about China's territorial and technological assertiveness and the US with its allies are working to counter that threat. But the intelligence sharing aspects of this are really only a limited part of the larger issue; it's really more of an coalition issue than it is an intelligence one. So states can and do work to counter China's growing assertiveness without being in 5 eyes," he said.

He admitted that the international quorum of nations working to confront China "can certainly shift the balance of power in the region".

"But it's the counter China coalition rather than the 5 eyes group that's the mechanism for that," he concluded.

Meanwhile, Nagy believes that China can not be contained in any case.

"Its [China's] economy is too big and too integrated into the global economy. What is more, Japan and Australia's largest trading partner is China. They cannot, nor do this wish to jeopardize that relationship," he said.

He admitted that both Tokyo and Canberra may seek to expand maritime awareness activities and even develop a better understanding of Pekingology.

"What they want to do is gather expanded high quality information about challenges to the current international order including China to best position themselves to respond intelligently to challenges and create mechanisms to shape change in a positive direction," he said.