Turkish-Greek Escalation Stems From Sovereignty Issues Rather Than Hydrocarbons' Control

The Turkish-Greek escalation that reached a boiling point this month is sparked by their sovereignty issues, which have been simmering for a long time, rather than the actual control over hydrocarbons' reserves in the Mediterranean, experts told Sputnik

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 27th August, 2020) The Turkish-Greek escalation that reached a boiling point this month is sparked by their sovereignty issues, which have been simmering for a long time, rather than the actual control over hydrocarbons' reserves in the Mediterranean, experts told Sputnik.

The tensions between Athens and Ankara escalated earlier in August after Turkey's Oruc Reis research vessel began exploration drilling in the Greek-claimed waters in the eastern Mediterranean. Greece considers this territory to be its exclusive economic zone, has mobilized its armed forces to high alert, and vowed to protect its sovereign rights by all necessary means.

The row has reached a dangerous point when both states have started to hold military drills in the contested maritime area. This week, Greece alongside Cyprus, France and Italy held a joint military exercise in the Eastern Mediterranean as part of the so-called Quartet Cooperation Initiative (QUAD), while the navies of Turkey and the United States have conducted joint drills in the same area.

CONTROL OVER NATURAL RESOURCES DRIVES UP HISTORIC TENSIONS

The Turkish-Greek relations have been shadowed by the disputes for years, but the discovery of hydrocarbon reserves in the maritime zone, claimed by both states, have escalated the tensions, bringing the historic conflict back into the spotlight, Dr. Zenonas Tziarras, the researcher with the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Cyprus Centre, told Sputnik.

"The biggest problem in the area is not energy resources, but traditional sovereignty issues pertaining to maritime zones. The discovery of hydrocarbons over the past years exacerbated these problems given that control over maritime space sometimes entails control over natural resources as well, among other things. At least since the early 2010s," Tziarras said.

Turkey seeks to expand its control over maritime areas and natural resources through its "openly revisionist foreign policy," designed to elevate the country to the status of great power, the researcher noted.

"The latest crisis is only one episode in a long series of episodes stirred by problematic relations and unresolved issues. The efforts for de-escalating this crisis might be successful sooner or later. However, the core of the problem will not go away unless gunboat diplomacy, especially by Turkey, is abandoned and the two countries engage in dialogue to resolve their bilateral issues. Without a breakthrough in this respect, more crises will follow," Tziarras said.

COULD ESCALATION SPILL OVER INTO OPEN MILITARY CONFLICT?

After Greece and Turkey have simultaneously launched military drills in the eastern Mediterranean, some have expressed fears that an open military confrontation between two NATO allies could happen by accident or deliberately.

"There remains the small possibility of an accident that would lead to confrontation and also to the now unpredictable character of President Erdogan. Truly, Erdogan, after the failed attempt of 2016 to assassinate him, has become another man determined to take incredible risks that he would have never taken before July 2016," Prof. Dimitri Kitsikis, an expert in the Turkish-Greek relations, told Sputnik.

However, "there is no intention whatsoever neither from Turkey nor from Greece to go to war in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean," Kitsikis, who serves as the professor emeritus with the University of Ottawa's History Department, noted.

The PRIO researcher is in agreement with Kitsikis that both Turkey and Greece do not seek a military confrontation.

"The two countries do not want a military confrontation. However, when there are such tensions and military-naval mobilization, the possibility of an accident or a miscalculation is always a possibility, especially if the crisis is prolonged and the diplomatic efforts for de-escalation take a long time or are unsuccessful," Tziarras said.

The rising tensions between Athens and Ankara negatively impact the unity with NATO, the expert noted.

"The potential of a conflict between Greece and Turkey has always been a concern for NATO and the United States. For this reason, they have tried in the past to keep the peace between the two countries. Any crisis between Greece and Turkey hinders NATO's unity, regional cohesion and interests. Although Germany and the EU are playing a Primary mediation role in de-escalating the crisis, the US and NATO are also believed to be trying to defuse tensions and prevent further escalation," Tziarras underlined.

As for NATO's role in efforts to deescalate the tensions, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that he regularly maintains contact with both Turkey and Greece.

FEARS OVER LOCAL CONFLICT BECOMING INTERNATIONAL

France decision to send naval forces to the Eastern Mediterranean, which was welcomed by Greece, may add to tensions in the region, Panayotis Tsakonas, a professor of security studies at the University of Athens and the head of the Program on Security at Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), told Sputnik.

"By implication, France has not been hesitant in supporting Greece in its conflict with Turkey by sending a strong message to Turkey � through the mobilization of its fleet � that this time Turkey went it too far. However, a note of caution should be added here � although Greece welcomes France's initiative aiming at deterring any further Turkish aggression this may also add up to an already heavily militarized region where the possibility of an accident is high," Tsakonas said.

The expert also mentioned that Paris and Ankara have contradicting interests not only in the Eastern Mediterranean sea but also in Africa, adding that French President Emmanuel Macron and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have "personal antipathy."

"Based on the aforementioned reasons for France's military engagement in the region I strongly doubt there will be any other country willing to follow suit," Tsakonas added.

When addressing the joint response by the European Union to Turkey over Ankara's actions in the Eastern Mediterranean, the expert said that France and Germany do not "share the same views on how best to deal with Turkey."

"France is more in favor of punishing Erdogan's aggressiveness through the adoption of direct punitive measures, i.e. sanctions while Germany � which now runs the EU Presidency � is more interested in not letting Turkey further distancing itself from the EU promoting thus Turkey's engagement with the EU," Tsakonas said.

At the same time, the professor noted that NATO, unsurprisingly, is much more fragmented and divided over the issue with Turkey.

"Indeed despite a series of strategic divides between Turkey and its NATO allies, the Atlantic Alliance is expected to remain a passive observer with regard to Turkey's behavior vis-a-vis Greece, another NATO member, given that for NATO Turkey remains too big, powerful and strategically important to allow for an open confrontation," Tsakonas said.

The expert added that the current situation, if it is left unchecked, would have certain negative effects on the stability at the EU's southern border and said that the EU and the United States should reset their relationship with Turkey "with a new one based on a balanced mixture of carrots and sticks and/or benefits and obligations" as soon as possible.