Ukrainian Election Race Nearing End With Poroshenko Unlikely To Beat Zelenskiy

The Ukrainian presidential race is nearing its end, and, according to opinion polls, conducted ahead of the second round of the election, incumbent President Petro Poroshenko is supported by about 25 percent of voters, who are ready to take part in the elections, while his opponent, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, enjoys support of about 70 percent of Ukrainian nationals

KIEV (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 18th April, 2019) The Ukrainian presidential race is nearing its end, and, according to opinion polls, conducted ahead of the second round of the election, incumbent President Petro Poroshenko is supported by about 25 percent of voters, who are ready to take part in the elections, while his opponent, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, enjoys support of about 70 percent of Ukrainian nationals.

On Sunday, Ukrainians will decide who will be defining the framework of the country's policies in the next five years.

In a bid to increase his chances in the second round of the vote, Poroshenko started communicating with the youth in social networks, giving daily interviews to tv channels and firing officials, who have been causing public discontent for years. However, according to experts, this will not help him win the race, as the gap between the two candidates is too big.

In the meantime, Zelenskiy did not hold a single meeting either with the media or with his voters. His campaign looks more like a TV show called "Servant of the People," in which Zelenskiy starred, while each new promo video, which serve as his way of communicating with the opponents and voters, is aimed at mocking Poroshenko.

Zelenskiy, according to the data of the Ukrainian Central Election Commission, scored 30.24 percent of the vote in the first round of presidential election, which is almost twice as much as Poroshenko gained. According to experts, Zelenskiy can count on luring the voters of major candidates who failed to qualify for the runoff. Voters of the leader of the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party Yulia Tymoshenko, as well as the supporters of the leader of the Ukrainian Opposition Platform For Life party Yuriy Boyko, in particular, are ready to support Zelenskiy.

Analyzing the results of the first round, one can learn that Zelenskiy's voters live in the south and in the center of the country. Out of 100 percent of the voters, who supported Zelenskiy, 35.3 percent are residents of Ukraine's southern regions; 34 percent live in the central part of the country; 18.5 more percent are residents of the western regions and only 12.1 percent of his supporters live in the east.

More than 55 percent of Zelenskiy's voters are women. In terms of age, Zelenskiy is supported equally by young people from 18 to 29 years old and by middle-aged people from 30 to 40, while people who are older than 50 years are less supportive.

Zelenskiy had not actually conducted any election campaign before the first round of the vote. His headquarters began active work only in anticipation of the second round. Zelenskiy's team sees the low turnout of their supporters as the main challenge of the forthcoming re-vote. They fear that a serious advantage over Poroshenko secured in the first round may disadvantage them, since Zelenskiy's voters may think that the victory is already in the bag and will not go to the polling places on Sunday. Therefore, every effort is being made to urge people to come to the polling stations and vote.

In addition, Zelenskiy's team accuses their opponent of using dirty political technologies. For example, a video where the leader of the electoral race got hit by a truck was released, leaflets hinting that Zelenskiy is a drug addict are being handed out which is accompanied by rumors that Ukraine could lose its visa-free regime with the European Union if Zelenskiy wins. Poroshenko's team denies these accusations.

At the same time, the latest polls suggest that Zelenskiy has nothing to worry about. According to a study released earlier on Thursday by Ukrainian sociological group Rating, Zelenskiy is supported by 73 percent of Ukrainian citizens who are sure of their pick for president and intend to vote, while Poroshenko's rating stands at 27 percent.

Poroshenko took the results of the first round as a challenge and immediately engaged in the fight for the votes. The president has repeatedly stressed that he was confident of his victory and he and his team were using every opportunity for campaigning.

The results of the first round showed that 37 percent of Poroshenko's supporters live in the west of the country and 40 percent live in its central part.

The southern and eastern regions gave Poroshenko the lowest number of votes, 16.5 percent and 6.4 percent, respectively. There are slightly more men among Poroshenko's voters than among Zelenskiy's (47.1 percent compared to 44.5 percent), and, accordingly, fewer women (52.9 percent versus 55.5 percent).

The older the voters are, the more there are Poroshenko's supporters among them. Only 10.8 percent of voters in the 18-29 age group cast their votes for the current president; 18.3 percent are people aged between 30 and 39; 19.1 percent of voters are between the ages of 40 and 49; 21.9 percent of people aged 50 to 59, and 29.9 percent of his supporters are people aged 60 and above.

It seems that ahead of the second round, Poroshenko's team looked into this data carefully and decided to focus precisely on attracting young people. Thus, a channel in which various polls are conducted was immediately created on Telegram and even a set of stickers with Poroshenko appeared.

The main message that Poroshenko is trying to convey to the voters is that he hears them and that he is ready to change and correct mistakes. He has also been trying to convince Ukrainians that the life improvement is just around the corner. But the most important message has been as follows: if voters choose Zelenskiy, Ukraine will lose the "war with Russia."

Many experts believe that this message deliberately divides the country's population into "us and them," which is bad for Poroshenko. According to a political expert at the International Center for Advanced Studies, Igor Petrenko, Poroshenko's chances for victory are low.

"Poroshenko still has time. For example, if there is a serious scandal involving Zelenskiy, or if we hear controversial statements from Zelenskiy, this may have a little impact. But I do not see any opportunities for the current president to narrow this huge gap in the honest confrontation with Zelenskiy," Petrenko said.

In his opinion, it will be very difficult for Poroshenko to use administrative resources given the high support for his opponent, since even now the heads of administrations are very loyal to Zelenskiy� in anticipation of the upcoming change of power.

Sociologist and director general of the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), Volodymyr Paniotto, believes that Poroshenko has no chance to win.

"If there are no radical events that can lead to dramatic changes, I do not see a big chance for Poroshenko to win. He can hardly change the situation ... Poroshenko, whose anti-rating is almost 50 percent, has chances only if Zelenskiy's voters change their mind and do not come on April 21, or if they are not satisfied with the answer of their candidate regarding a specific issue," Paniotto told Ukraine's Apostrof online portal in an interview.

Poroshenko's headquarters have also been preparing for a possible loss. Poroshenko himself said that he would accept the people's choice if Zelenskiy won.

"If, God forbid, he is elected, this will be the choice of the Ukrainian people, and I will respect it, any choice, because we are a democratic state," the president said.

At the same time, Poroshenko's team has indicated that if their candidate lost, he would not leave politics, and his party would take part in the parliamentary elections, scheduled for late October.

However, recent polls show that the Petro Poroshenko Bloc Solidarity can count on receiving about 7 percent of the vote, which means it will have only a small parliamentary group.

According to the latest poll published on the KIIS website, if the elections to the Verkhovna Rada were held in mid-April, 12.4 percent of the respondents would have voted for Zelenskiy's Servant of the People party. Another 7.5 percent of voters would have supported the Opposition Platform For Life party.

The third place would have been occupied by the Petro Poroshenko Bloc Solidarity with 6.6 percent of the vote, and Tymoshenko's Batkivshchyna party would have been supported by less than 5 percent of the respondents.