Venezuela's Military: Election Protector Or Repressor?

Caracas, (APP - UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 24th Jul, 2024) Venezuela's military, a pillar of 25 years of socialist government, is expected to play a key role after a presidential election Sunday in which incumbent Nicolas Maduro is seeking a third six-year term.

What is not clear, is which side it will back.

Maduro's government, described as increasingly authoritarian, and an opposition convinced of victory, are both leaning on the armed forces to guarantee the outcome.

Accused of a crackdown on opponents in the run-up to Sunday's vote, Maduro frequently claims to have the military as an ally in his bid to remain in power.

Addressing an Independence Day military parade on July 5, the commander-in-chief vowed that "this baton of command will never fall into the hands of an oligarch, a puppet, a traitor," in an apparent reference to opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia.

Gonzalez Urrutia, for his part, urged the armed forces in a social media message to respect and enforce the election result, and vowing his government would be one of reconciliation.

Opinion polls show Gonzalez Urrutia -- a little-known ex-diplomat propelled unexpectedly to the top of the opposition ticket -- winning the election by a large margin.

But there are widespread fears that Maduro will never let that happen.

The military, said analyst Renata Segura of the Crisis Group think-tank, will be "a decisive actor" in case of a stolen opposition win: "either to pressure the government into accepting the result, or to go out and repress protests."

- 'Long live Chavez' -

The Venezuelan military counted 343,000 members in 2020, according to the International Institute of Strategic Studies -- a similar size to that of Mexico which has four times the population, and second only to Colombia and Brazil, also much larger countries.

As part of its official salute, the institution still proclaims "Long live Chavez!" in honor of Maduro's predecessor Hugo Chavez -- father of the populist "Chavismo" movement on whose watch the country went from being one of Latin America's richest to one of its most troubled.

For decades, the United States had been Venezuela's main weapons supplier.

But with a shift to the left under Chavez's presidency from 1999 to 2013, the friendship switched to Russia, which today supplies Venezuela's armed forces with Sukhoi aircraft and Kalashnikov rifles.

Just weeks before Sunday's vote, two Russian military vessels visited the South American country battling crippling US sanctions imposed after Maduro's 2018 reelection was rejected by dozens of Western and Latin American country for alleged fraud.

Himself a military man, president Chavez had led a constitutional reform that in 1999 gave soldiers the right to vote and the military a key role in state institutions, including the vital oil industry.

For Venezuela expert Rebecca Hanson of the University of Florida's Center for Latin American Studies, a military coup in case of opposition victory was "not out of the question," though unlikely.

"High ranking military officers have become incredibly powerful during Maduro's administrations... This means they have a lot to lose if Maduro steps down," she told AFP.

This did not necessarily mean, however, "that lower ranking officers will go along with it. Lower ranking officers have not benefited from Maduro's presidency in the same way that their superiors have. They have also been greatly impacted by the (economic) crisis" that has seen some seven million people flee in recent years.

The military largely controls mining companies, oil production and food distribution in Venezuela, as well as the customs service and 12 out of 34 ministries.

"The armed forces are won with privileges, promotions and the creation of new positions", retired general Antonio Rivero, an exiled critic of Chavismo, told AFP.

- 'Political prisoners' -

Nearly 50 high-ranking military officials, active and retired, are on the US sanctions list on accusations that include drug trafficking and rights violations.

Activists say soldiers have been used in a campaign to clamp down ruthlessly on protests against Maduro's harsh rule and economic misery.

They also denounce the captivity of more than 200 "political prisoners" that include dozens of dissident soldiers held on vague accusations of conspiracy or treason.

Maduro insists he is merely defending himself from attacks and US-led plots to unseat him.

In 25 years of Chavismo, the opposition has won only two national votes: in a 2007 referendum on constitutional reform, which was rejected, and a 2015 parliamentary election.

After that vote, whose outcome came as a shock to the regime, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino issued a message to the nation describing the process as "impeccable" -- a move credited by observers with keeping the calm.

"It is an important precedent," said Segura.