Washington Unlikely To Withdraw From US-Japan Defense Pact But May Try To Review Deal

US President Donald Trump is unlikely to pull out of the landmark Japanese-US Security Treaty, which has been serving as a basis for the two countries' postwar military cooperation for almost seven decades, and scrap yet another international agreement, but Washington may still attempt to make Tokyo review the agreement, experts told Sputnik

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 25th June, 2019) US President Donald Trump is unlikely to pull out of the landmark Japanese-US Security Treaty, which has been serving as a basis for the two countries' postwar military cooperation for almost seven decades, and scrap yet another international agreement, but Washington may still attempt to make Tokyo review the agreement, experts told Sputnik.

Bloomberg news agency reported earlier on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the matter that Trump had been recently mulling over the possibility of leaving the agreement with Tokyo because the defense pact was allegedly "one-sided" and benefited Japan more than the United States.

The reports came just days before the G20 Summit, which is slated to take place in Tokyo later in the week and bring together the world's most influential leaders, including Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

The defense pact was inked by the two countries, which fought for opposing camps during World War II, back in 1951. The treaty allows US forces to be stationed in Japan to help maintain peace and security in the region, and protect Japan in case of an attack. At the same time, Tokyo is obligated not to allow any other nation to deploy its forces in the country without Washington's consent.

Ra Mason, a lecturer in international relations and Japanese foreign policy at the University of East Anglia, said in his comments to Sputnik that there were too many officials on both sides who supported the treaty to allow it to be scrapped.

"It is very unlikely that even President Trump would scrap the US-Japan security alliance ... There are too many in both administrations who are firmly opposed to its abolition. The current Japanese administration embraces the idea of a 'normal nation' Japan ... Trump might suggest revisions, but depending upon their precise details, Abe and his administration might be persuadable," Mason said.

James Brown, an associate professor and academic program coordinator for international affairs at the Temple University Japan Campus, agreed with Mason that Trump would not go for actually terminating the Security Treaty.

"It is true that Trump walked away from the TPP [Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement]. He also abandoned the Paris agreement on climate change and the JCPOA [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] with Iran. However, scrapping the US-Japan Security Treaty would be a different order of magnitude since the agreement is the cornerstone of the US presence in East Asia," Brown said.

The professor gave three reasons why he believed that Washington would not withdraw from the defense pact with Japan, notably the fact that the scrapping of the treaty would hurt the United States' geopolitical interests in the region.

"The Security Treaty serves US interests since, in return for guaranteeing Japan's security, the United States gains access to Japanese territory for use as bases. This enables the United States to project power in East Asia. Second, the withdrawal of US forces would be a triumph to US rivals in East Asia, meaning China and North Korea. Third, the move would be fiercely opposed by many in the US Congress. Indeed, it may not even be legal for the US president to cancel the treaty without the approval of the Senate," Brown said.

According to the professor, the US president might simply threaten Japan with pulling out of the pact in order to make Japan increase its share in maintaining US military bases in the country.

"It is likely that Trump is simply using the threat of withdrawing from the Security Treaty as a means of exerting leverage on Japan. The US president will seek to use this leverage as a means of extracting a larger financial contribution from Japan toward the cost of maintaining the US bases. Negotiations on this issue are due to begin in the next few months," Brown noted.

GLIMPSE OF HOPE FOR RUSSIAN-JAPANESE RELATIONS?

At the same time, Brown said that if the defense pact was terminated, it would benefit Russian-Japanese relations, which have been notably hampered by Tokyo's close cooperation with Washington.

"In the hypothetical case of the US-Japan Security Treaty coming to an end, some aspects of the Japan-Russia relationship would become easier. For instance, if Japan abandoned plans to purchase the Aegis Ashore missile defense system from the United States, one of Russia's leading security concerns regarding Japan would be eliminated," the professor added.

The expert, however, believed that the relations between Moscow and Tokyo would still be soured by the Kuril Islands dispute even in the absence of the Japanese-US defense pact.

"Japan refuses to sign a peace treaty because of the unresolved status of the disputed Southern Kuril Islands, known in Japan as the Northern Territories. The status of these islands would still remain a point of friction even if Japan was no longer a formal US ally," Brown explained.

In late January, Japan and Russia launched full-scale talks aimed at signing a permanent World War II peace treaty. Moscow and Tokyo have not been able to sign a peace treaty so far, mostly because the two countries cannot resolve their dispute over the Kuril Islands, which the Soviet Union received at the end of the war and which Japan still lays claims to.