Zelenskyy's Servant Of The People Party To Face Coalition Choices After Ukraine Election

Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada of the 9th convocation, which the country's citizens will elect in Sunday's snap parliamentary elections, is due to start work in fall

KIEV (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 18th July, 2019) Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada of the 9th convocation, which the country's citizens will elect in Sunday's snap parliamentary elections, is due to start work in fall.

According to opinion polls, only five parties have a chance to enter the parliament: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Servant of the People party; the Opposition Platform For Life party; the party of the former president, Petro Poroshenko, European Solidarity; Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) party, headed by former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko; and the Voice party, led by famous Ukrainian singer Svyatoslav Vakarchuk. Some of these forces will form a coalition.

The leader of the electoral preferences of Ukrainians, the Servant of the People, more than 40 percent of voters are ready to support the party will be the basis of the future parliamentary majority. At the same time, the drop in its ratings on the eve of the elections makes it impossible for the party to secure a one-party majority, which means that it will have to unite with other political players in order to collect the needed 226 votes. The parliament's future configuration will largely depend on the results of the elections in majority-voting districts.

According to experts, there are three parties that will most likely form a coalition: the Servant of the People, the Voice, and Batkivshchyna.

Snap elections to the parliament will be held in Ukraine on July 21 under a mixed electoral system: half of the lawmakers, or 225 seats, will be elected by party lists, and the second half will be elected based on a simple majority system in single-mandate election districts.

The parties will have to surpass the 5 percent threshold to win seats in the legislature.

NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN MAJOR PLAYERS

Given the unpredictability of the majority voting results, Zelenskyy's party cannot predict a clear composition of the future coalition. The possibility of a single-party majority still exists, but the Servant of the People is prepared for the fact that it will have to negotiate with others.

Some parties, including Batkivshchyna, have already publicly stated that they were in favor of creating a coalition with the Servant of the People.

"Our team intends to go into a strong coalition with the new president, with other democratic European forces," Tymoshenko said.

According to Ukraine's Apostrophe media outlet, the Servant of the People has established good communication with its main critics, the headquarters of the European Solidarity party. The portal, citing its sources, reported that Poroshenko's party was discussing the possibility of uniting with Zelenskyy's party. There are two obstacles though: Poroshenko himself and Rada's First Deputy Speaker Iryna Herashchenko, who constantly criticizes and mocks Zelenskyy.

"Poroshenko assured his inner circle that he would get out of active duty after his party gets into the parliament. In such a situation, the Servant of the People can agree to a coalition with European Solidarity," Apostrophe reported, citing a source in the party of the ex-president.

Rumors about Poroshenko leaving the party have been circulating for some time. The former president's entourage does not rule out that Ukraine will have to hold snap elections again after a year, and, therefore, it would not be good for Poroshenko to be associated with the parliament, which can be quickly dismissed.

The headquarters of the Servant of the People, in turn, spoke about its willingness to unite only with new political forces. Based on the published ratings, only the Voice out of all the new parties will most likely enter the parliament.

The director of the Ukrainian Institute for Analysis and Management of Policy, Ruslan Bortnik, believes that the most realistic scenario is that the coalition will include three parties.

"I think that the most natural coalition is the one that includes the Servant of the People, Batkivshchyna and, perhaps, the Voice if it gets in. Even if the Servant of the People has 226 seats, it still will not be able to organize an effective vote, because, in order to have these votes, the coalition needs to have about 270 people in its composition," Bortnik told Sputnik.

According to him, on issues that require a constitutional majority (at least 300 votes), in particular, a settlement in Donbas, the Servant of the People will have to seek support from the Opposition Platform For Life or from European Solidarity.

The head of Kiev-based analytical center Third Sector, Andrey Zolotarev, also shares Bortnik's opinion.

"The most likely version of the coalition is the Servant of the People and the Voice. The next contender is Batkivshchyna but it seems to me that the pro-presidential party is afraid of Yulia Tymoshenko. She is an experienced politician, so it could turn out one fine morning that Volodymyr Zelenskyy works as a president for Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko," Zolotarev said.

The expert believes that the exact format of the future parliamentary majority will be determined by the turnout in the elections.

At the same time, both experts exclude the possibility that the Servant of the People will join a coalition with the Opposition Platform For Life party, which is so far the second in ratings and is in favor of restoring relations with Russia.

"At the initial stage, the probability of such a coalition is minimal. Later, when the most important servant of the people, Zelenskyy, goes into survival mode when his ratings go down, then it will be possible to form any coalition, including a broad one, which the Opposition Platform For Life could get into," Bortnik told Sputnik.

Zelenskyy's party headquarters assured that now they were not going to discuss majority formats with anyone or allocate posts.

"We are ready to discuss and comment on any specifics after July 21, when the Ukrainian people make their choice," the head of the electoral headquarters of the Servants of the People, Oleksandr Kornienko, said.

CANDIDATES FOR PARLIAMENT SPEAKER POST

Traditionally, the issues of the joint coalition concern not only the formal unification but first and foremost the distribution of posts for which Rada is responsible: the parliamentary leadership, the prime minister and members of the Cabinet.

According to a number of media reports, the current speaker of the Ukrainian parliament, Andriy Parubiy, could maintain his position. One of Voice's leaders, Yaroslav Yurchishin, and the head of the Servant of the People, Dmytro Razumkov, are also qualified to be the speaker of the parliament. The political forces have not yet commented on this information.

Viktor Medvedchuk, the chairman of the political council of the Opposition Platform - For Life party, would also like to fill the position, however, this may lead to protests in society, political analysts say.

"I estimate his chances at zero. Now, with everything that is going on, the Opposition Platform - For Life falls into a toxic niche that is limited to 10-15 percent. And, with this in mind, under all other conditions, despite the fact that it [the party] will rank second in the elections, Medvedchuk as the speaker looks like something unrealistic," Zolotarev told Sputnik.

Bortnik also voiced a similar opinion.

"So far, the maximum that the blue and white opposition can expect from the results of these elections is to get the post of the parliament's deputy head, which is traditionally occupied by the opposition ... This is a likely scenario if Zelenskyy does not follow Poroshenko's lead and does not deprive the opposition of a leading position in the future parliament," the political scientist said.

Under the law, it is the coalition that proposes a candidate for the position of the prime minister. But again, everything will depend on the coalition's format and on the "appetites" of each participant. While others remain undecided, Tymoshenko has already offered herself as a candidate for this post. There is a banner on her party's website saying "The most effective Ukrainian Prime Minister in Ukraine's history."

If the Servant of the People forms a coalition with Voice, the leader of the party, Vakarchuk, will also be qualified to compete for the prime minister's post. The singer himself publicly admitted that "there is not a single position that he will refuse," if people trusted him.

Kiev's Western partners are betting on the so-called "technocrats."

According to Melinda Haring, the editor of the UkraineAlert blog at the Atlantic Council, the most prepared candidates for the prime minister's position are former Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development and Trade Aivaras Abromavicius and Vladislav Rashkovan, Deputy Director of Ukraine in the International Monetary Fund.

"In the West, Abromavicius is regarded as honest, efficient, principled, charming, and absolutely committed to the success of Ukraine. Choosing Abromavicius would signal to investors, Western governments, and Ukrainians that Zelenskyy is serious about changing Ukraine," Haring said in an article.

In her opinion, Rashkovan, who in 2014-2016 served as deputy governor of the National Bank of Ukraine and was responsible for reforming the Central Bank, is an alternative choice for the prime minister's position. As Haring noted, there were also other candidates among technocrats, including Oleksandr Danyliuk, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council; Ukrainian Naftogaz oil and gas holding company CEO Andriy Kobolev; and Naftogaz Executive Officer Yuriy Vitrenko.

"If the Servant of the People totally dominates the coalition, then I consider Rashkovan, Danyliuk and the head of the president's office, Andriy Bohdan, to be the most likely candidates for the post of the prime minister. If the coalition involves partners, then there are chances for Tymoshenko. Although there may be technical prime ministers, the Cabinet can be headed by a completely new and unknown person in our political system," Bortnik concluded.

Zolotarev, in turn, believes that there is no need to take seriously all the names that have been voiced.

"They talk about [the former head of Naftogaz, Oleh] Dubyna and Kobolev. In Zelenskyy's place, I would think twice before dealing with Kobolev, Vitrenko and other baby birds from Naftogaz. They are highly 'toxic' because of sky-high tariffs for housing and public utilities, huge bonuses ... Perhaps the president should rely on such an experienced politician as Tymoshenko in this issue," Zolotarev added.