Sudan Coup Generals Determined Not To Lose Long-held Power: Analysts
Sumaira FH 1 month ago Tue 26th October 2021 | 08:30 AM
Khartoum, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 26th Oct, 2021 ) :By ousting senior civilian figures and disrupting a transition to democracy, Sudan's generals have ensured they maintain control in the East African country, as they have for most of its post-independence history, analysts say.
On Monday security forces detained civilian leaders, including Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, who have shared power with the military following the ouster of the autocratic president Field Marshal Omar al-Bashir more than two years ago.
The Council was supposed to pave the way for full civilian rule.
The latest putsch "looks very much like an attempt by the security forces to maintain control over economic and political interests, and to resist the flip" to a civilian order, said Jonas Horner of the International Crisis Group.
To Magdi el-Gizouli of the Rift Valley Institute "the coup was far from surprising".
The Sovereign Council ruled the country alongside a transitional government led by Hamdok, an economist, but the role of civilian leaders had been receding.
The main civilian bloc, the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) which led anti-Bashir protests, splintered into two opposing factions, one of which held demonstrations in support of the military.
Critics alleged those protests were being driven by members of the military and security forces, and involved counter-revolutionary sympathisers with the former regime.
"The crisis at hand is engineered -- and is in the shape of a creeping coup," mainstream FFC leader Yasser Arman said two days before the military made its move.
Ahmed Soliman, an analyst from Britain's Chatham House think-tank, told AFP the military has resisted significant reforms including "professionalisation and civilian oversight" of its institutions, as well as its business interests.
Hamdok said last year that 80 percent of the country's public resources were "outside the finance ministry's control", although he did not specify the proportion controlled by the army.
Such "really critical issues in the transition have fuelled very recent turmoil that is taking place in Sudan and perhaps set the stage for this hostile takeover by the military," Soliman said.
Protests against the coup have already led to three deaths on Monday, and there will be "heavy civilian resistance", Gizouli said.
"The military will have little option but to crush it by force," he said.
Gizouli believes Burhan will remain in power for the foreseeable future but might talk with civilian leaders who remain free, like Foreign Minister Mariam al-Mahdi.
"He still needs a civilian face for the government," Gizouli said.