RPT: PREVIEW - Irish Border Backstop Remains Biggest Concern As Commons Prepares For Vote On Brexit Deal

LONDON (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 15th January, 2019) The Irish border backstop remains the biggest concern for UK lawmakers, threatening to tip the scale toward rejection when the parliament votes on a Brexit agreement negotiated by the UK government.�

The House of Commons is set to vote on the deal, steeped in criticism, on Tuesday.

The United Kingdom and the European Union have both been striving to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The drive to resolve this issue stems from the need to uphold the solution to a decades-long conflict in Northern Ireland.

The Good Friday Agreement, also known as Belfast Agreement, of 1998 helped put an end to a conflict between those who wanted Northern Ireland to become part of the Republic of Ireland and those who wanted it to remain part of the United Kingdom. The openness of the border and Northern Ireland's ties to both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland have been important to the resolution of the conflict.

However, a worst case scenario could lead to security and customs checks on this border, disrupting the flow of people and cargo. In addition to potentially stoking tensions in a region, the interruptions would be hard on businesses, slowing down or breaking established supply chains.

To avoid this, the European Union has proposed a backstop that would be applied only if Brussels and London were unable to find a better solution by the end of Brexit transition period in December 2020.

In November, UK negotiators agreed to a deal including a backstop, which would see the entire United Kingdom remain part of a single customs territory with the European Union until another arrangement has been found. At the same time, Northern Ireland would adhere to some EU single market rules, which could lead to checks on goods coming into Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom.

The UK government approved the withdrawal agreement, but the House of Commons met the deal with strong criticism. The government was forced to publish full legal advice on Brexit that appeared to confirm some of the lawmakers' worst fears. The document warned of the United Kingdom potentially getting stuck in "protracted and repeated rounds of negotiations" due to backstop conditions.

The Parliament was initially expected to vote on the agreement on December 11, but Prime Minister Theresa May postponed the vote amid fears that the deal would not make it through the Commons.

The Conservative Party has to rely on the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) for a majority in the parliament. The DUP is fervently against any additional checks between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom and has been vocal about its dislike of the latest withdrawal agreement.

Without the 10 DUP lawmakers, the Conservatives have 317 seats in a 650-seat House of Commons. However, the last several weeks have shown that there is a rift within the ruling party. In fact, May had to go through a confidence vote in her own party in December, and survived it with 200 votes against 117.

It is possible that some of the Conservatives will not vote for May's deal on Tuesday. The agreement has already led to a flurry of resignations, with the most recent one being a darkly symbolic departure of a government whip Gareth Johnson, a lawmaker responsible for ensuring that party members attend important parliament sessions and vote along party lines. Johnson announced he was stepping down as a whip a day before the crucial vote and cited his objections to the withdrawal deal as the reason.

It is also possible that a few Labour lawmakers might break ranks and vote for May's deal. However, there are reportedly only a handful of those.

Paul Murphy, a member of the Irish Parliament for Dublin South-West, is skeptical about the deal's chances to pass.

"I don't see it [the deal passing] ... it would require some very unexpected event to take place," Murphy told Sputnik, when asked if May's deal would be able to survive the vote.

Graham Eardley, a spokesman for the Bruges Group think tank, similarly, thinks that May has no chances.

"I just think it's a sign of absolute desperation to try and force this vote through ... She's tried (to win over) the Eurosceptics in her own party and obviously got nowhere, and now she's trying to reach out to Labour MPs and leading trade unionists to see if she can get support from that side of the House," Eardley told Sputnik.

Brendan Chilton, a borough councillor for Stanhope and a member of Labour Party, is certain that May is "going to fail."

"She's going to lose the vote and I think what needs to happen is that both the main parties need to honour the referendum and come out for a World Trade Organisation Brexit. I think we probably will end up having a general election, the situation in the Commons is that there is a stalemate," Chilton told Sputnik.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has pledged to launch a vote of no confidence in May if her deal is rejected on Tuesday.

However, Eardley argues that Corbyn's motion might not bring desired results as the Conservatives are unlikely to back him and the DUP has already indicated it would support May in any such vote.

EU OFFERS SOME REASSURANCES, BUT NO NEW TALKS

After the deal was rescheduled in December, May engaged in further talks with the European Union. However, Brussels made one thing agonizingly clear � there would be no reopening of negotiations.

Earlier in the day, a letter from May to President of the European Council Donald Tusk and President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, was released, as well as their reply.

May said in her letter that the bloc need not fear that London would use the Irish border as "leverage" in trade negotiations.

EU leaders, in turn, have promised that they would prioritize discussions of potential alternatives to the backstop, adding that this safety net solution in no way encroached upon the Belfast Agreement. Tusk and Juncker pointed out that there was an option to extend the transition period and pledged to increase efforts on negotiating the future relationship in this case.

The UK prime minister made a speech in Stoke-on-Trent later in the day, stressing that the parliament rejecting her deal could lead to either no deal or no Brexit at all.

Irish border may be the most-discussed issue, but Wales and Scotland also have some grievances to air. A lot of dissatisfaction with the countries' dependence on the central government is seeping through in these comments.

Scotland has been particularly unhappy as it actually voted Remain in 2016 by 62 percent against 38. The talk of a second referendum on Scottish independence was resurrected amid Brexit referendum fallout, but London has stymied the discussion.

Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has slammed the current government over its treatment of Brexit and offered support to Labour should they trigger a motion of no confidence in the government.

Ian Blackford, the leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP) at Westminster, criticized the November deal over not making any reference to Scotland and describing this as a sign of "utter contempt."

Meanwhile, Neil McEvoy, an independent member of the National Assembly for Wales, has decried May's treatment of Cardiff.

"The one thing we can guarantee is that Wales' interests will be the last concern for Theresa May's government ... I want to see Wales play a bigger role in the world, not a reduced one as a side lined part of the United Kingdom ... Scotland held firm and defeated the UK government in court. That's the sort of leadership on Brexit [that] Wales needs, but we're not getting it at the moment," McEvoy told Sputnik.

In November, the UK government was defeated in Scotland's highest court, which denied London the right to appeal its referral of a Brexit case to the European Court of Justice (ECJ). The Court of Session in Edinburgh referred the case on United Kingdom potentially unilaterally reversing Brexit to the ECJ in September.

The ECJ has since ruled that the United Kingdom can unilaterally revoke its notification of withdrawal from the European Union as long as the withdrawal agreement has not entered force or, barring a deal, within two years since the notice was given.

The United Kingdom is currently expected to leave the bloc on March 29, 2019, but it remains to be seen whether it will be with a deal or not.