RPT: REVIEW - Democrats On Path To Seize US Senate, Yet 3 Pivotal Races Tightening
Sumaira FH Published October 30, 2020 | 11:10 AM
WASHINGTON (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 30th October, 2020) The Democrats have maintained leads in six pivotal races that could help them wrest control of the Senate from Republicans, although contests in North Carolina, Iowa, and Arizona have tightened considerably and threaten to derail these plans.
On November 3, millions of Americans nationwide will head to the polls to vote in the 2020 presidential and congressional elections. Up for election this year are 35 of 100 seats in the Republican-controlled Senate and all 435 seats in the House, where the Democratic Party has a 32-seat majority.
The Democrats are widely expected to build their advantage further in the lower chamber and have a chance to seize the Senate from the Republicans, who currently control 53 seats. In fact, the Democrats could be on the verge of controlling both chambers of Congress and the White House, with President Donald Trump trailing both nationally and more slightly in several potentially decisive swing states.
Political oddsmaker, FiveThirtyEight.com, has given the Democrats a 72% chance of achieving this "trifecta," which the Party of Jefferson has not seen since the first two years of the Obama administration (2009-2011).
The Republicans currently have a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate but most prognosticators are saying the Democrats are likely to flip a net four seats to secure a 1-seat majority as a result of the November 3 election.
According to poll aggregator Realclearpoltics.com (RCP), if the election were held today, the Democrats would end up with 51 seats. As of Thursday, RCP has estimated that the Democrats have a lock on at least 45 seats and the Republicans 46, with nine races in the "toss up" category.
The Democrats must win six of these 9 races to take 1-seat majority control. If they win five of these seats and the Republicans win four of these seats, the Senate would end up split 50-50. In that scenario, the vice president, as president of the senate, would break all ties on any votes.
But if it happens to all come down to the race in Georgia, where Republican incumbent David Perdue is leading by less than one percent (46.3-45.7%), who controls the Senate may not be known until 2021. According to Georgia state law, if one candidate fails to get more than 50%, the race would be decided in a run-off on January 5.
The good news for the Democrats is they are leading in at least six of these pivotal races, four of which they are trying to oust incumbents. However, the bad news is that at least two of these races have tightened in favor of the incumbent within the past week.
Most notably, Arizona's Martha McSally has cut former astronaut Mark Kelly's lead in about half since last week, according to the RCP average, going from over 8 points to 2.2%. North Carolina incumbent Thom Tillis, who is seeking a second term, has narrowed his deficit from 2.4% to 1.6% in the past week.
South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham, the notorious anti-Russian hawk who has been in Congress for about 25 years, in a new East Carolina University poll is up by only 3% a week after a New York Times/Sienna Poll had him up by 6 points. The Democrats have focused a lot of time and energy in trying to oust Graham. Rival Jamie Harrison, the first Black chairman of South Carolina's Democratic Party has, shattered fundraising records, and has spent over twice as much as Graham on advertising.
Democrat Theresa Greenfield has a maintained a 2.2% lead on incumbent Republican Joni Ernst, although 2 weeks ago the challenger's lead was twice as high. Oregon's Susan Collins, who is trying to get reelected to a fifth term, has been unable to cut into the 4.2% lead Democratic challenger Sara Gideon has maintained since last week.
Republican Senator Tom Daines in Montana, meanwhile, is still up 3.3% from last week, according to RCP. Two Democratic incumbents are also leading their races including Michigan's Gary Peters (+7.1%) and Minnesota's Tina Smith (+6.3%), the RCP shows.
Based on the current projections, the races in North Carolina, Iowa and Arizona could be the last ones called on election night to determine the fate of the Senate.
The Democrats, who currently have a 35-seat majority in the House of Representatives (232-197), are predicted by many experts and pollsters - including FiveThirtyEight, the Cook Report, CNN and Inside Elections, to add anywhere from 7 to 10 seats to their advantage, a scenario that has not changed since last week.
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