RPT - US Submarine Incident Might Prompt China To Boost Patrols In Indo-Pacific - Expert

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 13th October, 2021) The recent incident involving a US nuclear submarine in the Indo-Pacific may force China to increase own submarine patrols in regional waters, a step that could make accidents at sea more likely, experts told Sputnik.

On Thursday, the US Navy said that the Guam-bound nuclear-powered submarine Connecticut struck an object while operating in international waters in the Indo-Pacific region, which resulted in injuries for eleven sailors, but the vessel remained operational. The Washington Post reported, citing a US Navy official, that the incident took place in the South China Sea, noting that Beijing had nothing to do with it.

"China might, for example, increase patrols by its own submarines - and that is only going to make future accidents more likely and negatively impact stability," M. V. Ramana, the Simons Chair in Disarmament, Global and Human Security at the school of Public Policy and Global Affairs, and the director of the Liu Institute for Global Issues at the University of British Columbia, said.

Beijing's reaction, however, is unlikely to go beyond that, according to the expert.

Despite the fact there were no casualties, the incident still could aggravate tense relations between the countries, especially after the recent US decision to transfer nuclear-powered submarines to Australia under the AUKUS deal, according to Marc Finaud, the head of arms proliferation research at the Geneva Center for Security Policy.

"This risk of heightened tensions and escalation is real if both countries continue in the current trend of arms build-up instead of strategic stability dialogue and negotiations towards more transparency, arms control, and cooperative security," he told Sputnik.

In addition, it remains unknown what the submarine collided with, Nikolai Sokov, senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation, notes.

In spite of that, the expert estimates the risks of escalation to be "modest," believing that it all "looks like Chinese simply used the incident with the US submarine to restate their position."

On Monday, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that the US approached the incident in a "irresponsible and secretive" manner, coming up with an "evasive statement" five days later. Beijing urged Washington to explain in detail where the collision happened and what kind of a collision it was.