Runoff Of 2022 French Presidential Race May Bring More Surprises Than Expected

Incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron may face an unexpected opponent in the second round of the French presidential election, scheduled for spring 2022, as the country's parties organize primaries and some unexpected candidacies emerge along the way, academics told Sputnik

BRUSSELS (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 13th September, 2021) Incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron may face an unexpected opponent in the second round of the French presidential election, scheduled for spring 2022, as the country's parties organize primaries and some unexpected candidacies emerge along the way, academics told Sputnik.

The race, due to be held on April 10 of next year, was previously expected to focus on the struggle between Macron and Marine Le Pen, repeating the 2017 vote. Le Pen left her post as leader of the right-wing National Rally party last week to embark on an election campaign.

Media focus, however, has recently been drawn to a prominent French journalist and right-wing polemicist Eric Zemmour, known for his anti-religious and counter-immigrant rhetoric, who is expected to announce a presidential bid in the coming weeks.

Thus, the previously anticipated Macron-Le Pen duel is now being overshadowed by Zemmour's highly probable candidacy, experts believe.

"The National Rally has hardly renewed itself compared to its sister parties in Europe; the long-term management of the party has been poor. Marine Le Pen has still not resolved the issue of their local anchoring and (she) is weakened. Zemmour puts the security themes of terrorism and immigration at the center of the French election campaign. Zemmour's candidacy can take Marine Le Pen down 4-5 points, making the LR (The Republicans conservative party) candidate credible for the second round," Christophe Bouillaud, a politologist at France's Grenoble Institute of Political Studies, said.

Pierre Vercauteren, a specialist of French politics at the University of Louvain in Belgium, confirmed Bouillaud's expectation of immigration being the main point on Zemmour's agenda, adding that he will make the topic central during the election "even if president Macron and the left do not want it."

"At the very moment when Marine Le Pen is trying to smooth out her speech and address the electorate of the center, abandoning the theme of identity and that of migrants.... Zemmour is bringing� it back with a vengeance. So we can expect some surprises," he said.

The themes of migration policy and national sovereignty vis-a-vis Europe and the "globalists" will be at the center of heated debate in the election, the experts say, adding that it is too early to make assumptions about the key subjects of the campaign, such as the pandemic, economic recovery, employment, and pension reform.

Speaking of The Republicans party, which has not yet selected a candidate among the five of its members striving for the presidency, Bouillaud suggested that Michel Barnier, former EU Chief Negotiator on Brexit, who announced his bid in late August, would be an unfortunate choice.

"What is astonishing is that Michel Barnier, a Savoyard in love with Europe, convinced Europhile, former European Commissioner and Brexit negotiator, felt obliged to propose a five-year moratorium on immigration to satisfy the right-ward turn of his party. In doing so, he calls into question the European institution itself and dismisses his former colleagues in Brussels. This is a huge mistake, a total contradiction with his entire political life. He has gone too far and will be ridiculed during the campaign if he becomes the official Republican candidate," the expert said, adding that the most probable choice of the party will either be Valerie Pecresse, the president of the Ile-de-France region, or Xavier Bertrand, head of the regional council of Hauts-de-France.

As it happens, the latter has refused to participate in any primaries, which is the party's tool to pick a presidential candidate.

As for the left-wing forces, they are highly unlikely to win the upcoming vote, taking into account the current situation in the pre-election campaign. Any such candidate has zero chance to enter the runoff and face Macron without a union of the whole wing, Bouillaud believes.

In this regard, given Zemmour's albeit controversial influence and popularity, he is still more likely to emerge as the opponent of the outgoing president in the second round of the 2022 presidential election, the experts are convinced.

"Still, it remains nevertheless plausible in most cases that Marine Le Pen, weakened by Eric Zemmour's candidacy, will find herself narrowly in the second round and that we are heading towards a repeat of the 2017 election. But who knows? This election still retains real suspense on the themes of the campaign and what the winner will commit to," Vercauteren noted.

The specialists also pointed out that the upcoming campaign will draw major public attention and participation rates, which is common for presidential races in France, unlike other elections in the country. �