ANALYSIS - Zelenskyy Can Seize Momentum To Settle Donbas Crisis Using Parliamentary Support

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 23rd July, 2019) Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose Servant of the People party leads the snap parliamentary vote in Ukraine with over 42 percent, should use the parliament's support for making a breakthrough in achieving peace in crisis-torn Donbas region, showing flexibility and gaining support from both Western countries and Russia, experts told Sputnik.

The latest data from Ukraine's Central Election Commission shows that Zelenskyy's Servant of the People party leads the vote that was held across Ukraine on Sunday with 42.6 percent after most ballots counted. This means that the incumbent president's party may receive over 240 mandates and create a one-party majority even without a coalition partner.

"Donbas is the issue that must be tackled soon, and a breakthrough achieved in the near future or the momentum may be lost. Zelenskyy will have strong parliamentary support now, so he is empowered to make a major foreign policy deal. Hardline Ukrainian nationalists will scream, they will attack him for any concessions, and the criticism will be intense," Robert English, the director of the University of Southern California school of International Relations, said.

English pointed out that criticism over possible steps toward settling the Donbas crisis could be overcome only with support on the part of the European Union, Washington and Moscow. According to the expert, Europe and the United States should encourage Zelenskyy to take decisive steps in resolving the crisis and show that they are ready to reward him for "progressive diplomacy." At the same time, Moscow should also make a move toward rapprochement with Ukraine in the context of finding a solution to the conflict.

English stressed, however, that anti-Russian domestic policies in the European countries and the United States might obstruct achieving peace in Donbas and overcoming resistance.

"This is a moment for leadership and courage � Zelenskyy is a key, he has good instincts, and EU and American leaders must encourage and support him in a new approach.

If EU and US status quo forces prevail � those that are not really interested in a settlement, that only want to hurt Putin and insist on Russian capitulation � nothing will change and the chance will be lost," the expert noted, adding that Brussels and Washington must also encourage Moscow to be flexible by opportunity of sanctions relief, and Russian President Vladimir Putin had to show "statesmanship, not just toughness."

David Marples, the chair of History and Classics Department at University of Alberta, in turn, told Sputnik that Moscow and Kiev would have chances to improve bilateral relations after the victory of Zelenskyy's party if both leaders showed initiative and will to find way out of the Donbas crisis.

"Both sides and perhaps their European partners will be needed to find a more realistic alternative or amendments to the 2015 Minsk Accords. The reintegration of the DNR and LNR [self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics] will be difficult but not impossible if Russia ends material aid to the separatists. That should be undertaken before the Crimean question is addressed. Ending the war has been a longstanding pledge of Zelenskyy and he must make an effort to carry it out," Marples said.

Meanwhile, the expert noted that although the bilateral relations between Russia and Ukraine were never completely broken, they were currently at their lowest point possible and "could hardly get much worse."

The conflict in Donbas started in 2014 when the Ukrainian authorities launched a military operation against the self-proclaimed republics in the region that refused to recognize the new government in Kiev, which came to power after what they considered to be a coup. In February 2015, the warring parties signed the Minsk peace accords to end the hostilities in the region, but the situation has remained tense, with both parties accusing each other of ceasefire violations.