DeSantis May Struggle To Attract Voter Support With Socially Conservative Agenda

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may beat former US President Donald Trump in the Republican primary but his socially conservative agenda could become a liability with US voters in the 2024 presidential election, experts told Sputnik

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 26th May, 2023) Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may beat former US President Donald Trump in the Republican Primary but his socially conservative agenda could become a liability with US voters in the 2024 presidential election, experts told Sputnik.

DeSantis filed his paperwork with the US Federal Election Commission to run for the US presidency, officially launching his presidential campaign on Wednesday. He will be Trump's top challenger in the race to become the Republican nominee in the next year's presidential election. However, Trump currently leads DeSantis by more than 30 points among Republican voters, according to the political analysis website Real Clear Politics, posing a challenge to the Florida governor.

Political analyst and activist Keith Preston says that while DeSantis could win the Republican nomination, Trump remains the most popular GOP candidate, especially among primary voters, and will benefit from an expanding roster of candidates.

"The more candidates who enter the GOP primaries, the better Trump's chances. So far, it seems as if the 2016 scenario will repeat itself where many candidates will divide the votes among themselves, with Trump being able to win a plurality by default," Preston observed.

The expert noted that it might have been shrewder for the governor to wait until the next presidential election cycle in, but "the GOP donor class has been cultivating DeSantis as a possible replacement for Trump, whom they view as too unstable and unpredictable."

Clodagh Harrington, a lecturer in U.S. politics at University College Cork, echoes Preston's observation, adding that while DeSantis potentially has a shot at taking the GOP nomination from Trump, it would be safer for him to wait for 2028, when both Trump and current President Joe Biden do not pose a challenge.

"However, (DeSantis) has a sense that a) many Republican voters have had enough of Trump and b) many voters overall want to move beyond Biden," she said.

The Florida governor has gained popularity among the Republican base for his overall performance while in office, and specifically for cracking down on illegal immigration, keeping the state relatively open during the COVID-19 pandemic and his anti-LGBTQIA+ education policies, which created a rift between him and one of Florida's largest employers, Disney. For this reason, he is seen by some on the right as a more level-headed alternative to Trump, though he lacks the latter's penchant for showmanship.

Robert Weissberg, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, thinks that this very lack of panache could prove to be an asset rather than a handicap.

"DeSantis is a very strong candidate whose lack of charisma may be an advantage after the wild man Trump.

He is very smart and a good campaigner. Eventually, he will win over Trump supporters," Weissberg said, suggesting that DeSantis could also do well with Hispanic voters.

Nevertheless, both Harrington and Preston drew attention to DeSantis' overt social conservatism that may undermine him in a nationwide contest against Biden.

"The DeSantis strategy of going all-in on the 'culture war' works for the GOP base, but it's a liability in a general election. The majority of the US public does not embrace DeSantis' brand of social conservatism, as was demonstrated in the 2022 mid-terms when pro-abortion referendums were passed even in some red states and where the general Republican performance was mediocre even though the GOP had many advantages, such as a weak economy and Biden's low approval ratings," Preston explained.

In the same vein, Harrington said that "if 2024 turns out to be (DeSantis) versus Biden, even those who would have preferred a different (younger) Democrat would show up on polling day just to ensure that the uber-conservative (DeSantis) does not win."

Another issue that could potentially undermine whoever wins the GOP nomination is the growing divide within the Republican Party, which will be exacerbated by the DeSantis-Trump showdown.

"It's quite likely that the Republican primaries will be extremely bitter and divisive within the party itself as the candidates, particularly Trump and DeSantis, cannibalize each other. I think that will create an image of dysfunction and extremism on the Republican side that will work to the Democrats' advantage," Preston stated.

While Trump is currently leading in the polls, he is also facing several high-profile lawsuits, including allegations of falsifying business records related to his alleged involvement in a $130,000 hush payment and subsequent cover-up regarding an alleged affair with adult film actress Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign. Earlier this month, a federal jury in New York found Trump liable for sexually assaulting author E. Jean Carroll and ordered the former US president to pay $2 million in damages.

"It's quite possible DeSantis is calculating that Trump will be hamstrung by multiple legal cases and either drop out or be forced out. He and his donors may even be hoping for that. But it's a risky calculation. Theoretically, Trump could even run for President from jail. The USA once had a candidate who did precisely that, Eugene Debs, a century ago," Preston stated.

Harrington, for her part, pointed out that while Trump's multiple criminal and civil lawsuits are good for DeSantis, they also give the former president constant publicity and fuel a sense among his base that he is being persecuted, which would bolster his support.