NOAA Forecasts Above Average Hurricane Season In Atlantic Basin

Sumaira FH Published May 25, 2025 | 01:15 AM

(UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News / WAM - 25th May, 2025) WASHINGTON,25th May, 2025 (WAM) – National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms. Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes, including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 178 kmh/111 mph or higher).

If the predictions are correct, this will be the tenth successive season with above average activity. An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The season is expected to be above normal due to a confluence of factors. This includes continued ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer than average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon, a Primary starting point for Atlantic hurricanes.

All of these elements tend to favor tropical storm formation.

The higher-heat content provides more energy to fuel storm development, while weaker winds allow the storms to develop without disruption.

NOAA announced a number of new products and services to strengthen analysis and forecasts.

“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. “With these models and forecasting tools, we have never been more prepared for hurricane season.”