Spain PM's Socialists Eye Power Grab In Catalan Vote

Barcelona, (APP - UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 13th May, 2024) Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's Socialists looked set to win Catalonia's regional election Sunday, but with no guarantee they would be able secure a governing majority, a survey showed after voting closed.

Although the region does not publish exit polls, surveys taken in the last few days -- whose results could only be published after voting closed at 1800 GMT -- suggest two possible outcomes, either a Socialist-led majority or a repeat of the pro-independence coalition.

The surveys indicated that the Catalan Socialist party led by Salvador Illa would win 37-40 of the regional parliament's 135 seats.

The hardline separatist JxCat party of separatist leader Carles Puigdemont, who led the region's botched 2017 independence bid, would follow with 33-36 seats.

The moderate separatist ERC, headed by outgoing regional leader Pere Aragones, would come third with 24-27.

In order to rule this wealthy northeastern region of eight million people, which has been led by separatists for the past decade, the Socialists will need to make alliances to reach 68 mandates for a governing majority.

Although the Socialists won most votes during the last regional ballot in 2021, they were unable to cobble together a majority, with the separatists clubbing together with a smaller pro-independence faction to form a 74-seat coalition.

- Two governing scenarios -

When the final results are out at around 08:00 pm, one option is Illa's Socialists allying with the radical left and ERC -- which would deal a damaging blow to the divided separatist movement.

Another could see Puigdemont repeating the 2021 coalition with ERC and smaller separatist rival CUP, a far-left, anti-capitalist faction seen winning 6-8 seats.

But the separatists are deeply divided with JxCat at odds with ERC and the picture has been further complicated by the emergence of the ultranationalist Catalan Alliance which polls suggest could win 1-3 seats.

Some 5.7 million people were eligible to vote, with provisional figures putting turnout at 55.

23 percent.

- 'A new important stage' -

On the streets, voters agreed the election would likely change the region's leadership.

"I'm sure the Socialists will win and that will change the ruling majority. But I don't think the situation will change much really," said Xavier Cusi, 51, who works in banking.

And 31-year-old Ainhoa Matos, who works in the insurance industry, expressed hope the outcome would give a greater voice to those who weren't pro-independence.

"The independence issue has calmed down a lot so people are less on edge," she said.

"People like me who are not pro-independence have not had enough of a voice or representation so I hope that can change."

- High-stakes election -

For Sanchez, seizing Catalonia from the separatists would be a major victory in his efforts to turn the page on the crisis sparked by the secession bid.

It would also let him effectively restart his latest term in office, which has been soured by bitter right-wing opposition and a graft probe into his wife that almost prompted his resignation last month.

Since becoming premier in 2018 in the months following the failed separatist bid, Sanchez has sought to "heal the wounds" caused by the unprecedented political crisis.

In 2021, he pardoned the separatists jailed over the secession bid and he is currently pushing through an amnesty bill for those still wanted by the justice system in exchange for key separatist backing that let him secure a new term in office.

The bill is due to become law in the coming weeks which will allow Puigdemont, 61, who fled Spain to avoid prosecution, to finally return home in a move vehemently opposed by the right.

Puigdemont is hoping that a strong showing in Sunday's vote will see him re-elected leader and return home triumphantly once the amnesty becomes law.

Unable to enter Spain, where he is subject to an arrest warrant, he has been campaigning in southern France.

He has vowed to retire from politics if he fails to win.