Manned ISS Flights On US-Made Spacecraft Likely To Be Postponed Further

The first manned flight to the International Space Station (ISS) on US-made spacecraft, instead of Russia-made Soyuz spacecraft, will most likely be put back further from May 2020 as the development of human-rated capsules might not be finished on time, experts told Sputnik

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 18th July, 2019) The first manned flight to the International Space Station (ISS) on US-made spacecraft, instead of Russia-made Soyuz spacecraft, will most likely be put back further from May 2020 as the development of human-rated capsules might not be finished on time, experts told Sputnik.

A source in the aerospace industry told Sputnik this week that Washington was set to send its first US-made spacecraft with a crew aboard instead of Russia's Soyuz upon obtaining NASA certification in May 2020.

Whether it will be Space X's Crew Dragon or Boeing's Starliner, NASA will first have to certify that the spacecraft is safe for human spaceflight. Initially, both contractors were set to obtain certification in 2017, but now neither is expected to be ready until late 2019 at the earliest.

NASA has paid Russia for seats on the Soyuz spacecraft since the US Space Shuttle was retired in 2011. In 2014, NASA gave contracts to Boeing and Space X, worth a combined total of up to $6.8 billion, to develop crew transportation systems and conduct initial missions to the orbiting laboratory under its Commercial Crew Program.

Russia and the United States are expected to continue cooperating on manned flights to the ISS on barter scheme, under which one US astronaut will fly on Soyuz, while one Russia's cosmonaut will fly on the US spacecraft. However, Russian cosmonauts are unlikely to start flying aboard the US spacecraft in 2020 as the experts of Russia's State Space Corporation Roscosmos have reservations about the safety of Crew Dragon and Boeing's Starliner. At the same time, NASA has told Sputnik that it is in negotiations with Roscosmos on the flights of Russian cosmonauts on board US spacecraft.

DELAYS IN FIRST MANNED FLIGHT LIKELY

Philip J. Stooke, an associate professor at Department of Geography, and Centre for Planetary Science and Exploration of the University of Western Ontario, told Sputnik that the April accident with Crew Dragon spacecraft, when SpaceX has said an "anomaly" occurred during the static fire tests of the abort engines, might lead to a change of plans on the first manned flight of the US-made spacecraft.

"Delays are common in space exploration, and Crew Dragon, Starliner and also Orion have been delayed already. More delays are possible especially with the recent Crew Dragon accident. But eventually I expect all of these spacecraft will be carrying people, some of them next year," Stooke said.

Martin Barstow, the director of Leicester Institute of Space and Earth Observation and former president of Royal Astronomical Society, has expressed similar views in his comments to Sputnik.

"Recent tests show that SpaceX and Boeing are getting closer to having their capsules human rated. However, 2020 is probably still a bit optimistic. In my view, the high level of reliability required for human space flight operations has not yet been demonstrated and will take several more flights.

Our tolerance of risk to astronauts is, rightly, lower than it one was and safety is more demanding," Barstow noted.

Mike Gruntman, professor of Astronautics at the University of Southern California, noted that the developers of the spacecraft should be focused on ensuring the safety of the crew rather than complying with deadlines.

"Human spaceflight is inherently dangerous so it is important to develop the space systems with safety in mind first rather than meeting certain deadlines. Development of SpaceX's Crew Dragon and Boeing's Starliner progresses well although with the delays with respect to the original scheduling expectations. Technical challenges and funding play critically important roles in such endeavors," Gruntman told Sputnik.

At the same time, the experts have said that it is still unclear whether development of own spacecraft for manned flights by the United States is economically viable.

"I think the question is more political than economic. Developing a new spacecraft is costly, but the USA does not want to be dependent on outside agencies for travelling to the Space Station. The purpose of developing the new spacecraft is also not so simple. The new Orion capsule is being developed to go beyond Earth orbit. No other spacecraft currently has that capability. The responsibility for developing [low Earth orbit] LEO capability has been passed on to commercial providers, with a view to making LEO access more of a business operation. However, whether the economics are profitable is still an open question," Barstow said.

The development of US-made spacecraft would prove economically viable if it is going to be used for commercial purposes as well, such as for space tourism, according to Stooke.

US INDEPENDENCE FROM SOYUZ POSSIBLE?

As US Vice President Mike Pence has vowed that the United States would soon get rid of its dependency on Russian spacecraft and promised that US astronauts "will return to space on American rockets; launched from American soil," many wonder whether total US independence from Russia in space is possible.

"It is difficult to predict whether NASA can really be independent of Russian spacecraft because any accident could make alternatives necessary again. Another unpredictable factor is the budget for space in the United States. American politics is very unpredictable, especially today, so the long term sustainability of the budget cannot be guaranteed, especially for Moon and Mars exploration," Stooke underlined.

At the same time, Barstow said that "the impressive record of Soyuz will take a long time to replicate," but noted that the United States may phase out reliance on the Russian space sector within a couple of years.