ANALYSIS - Brexit-Style Upset In French Election More Realistic Days Before Vote

ST.PETERSBURG (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 07th April, 2022) French right-wing presidential candidate Marine Le Pen is narrowing the gap with the frontrunner, incumbent President Emanuel Macron, for a decisive runoff vote on April 24 that may end in a Brexit-style election upset when a less expected candidate wins, experts told Sputnik.

The Ifop poll published on Wednesday showed Macron winning the first round with 27% of the vote, followed by Le Pen with 23.5%. Left-wing candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon comes in third with 17.5%. Also, Macron and Le Pen are projected to face each other in the second round, where Macron edges out Le Pen with 52.5% to 47.5%. In March, Macron's advantage over Le Pen was more pronounced, with polls predicting that the incumbent president would be able to enjoy the support of from 53% to 57% of voters. In 2017, Macron won a landslide victory over Le Pen securing two-thirds of the vote.

"This campaign is getting more and more surprising towards the end. We have 12 candidates and up until today margins between the candidates are very narrow ... Of course, it is likely that Macron will face Le Pen in the second round. We still may have a lot of surprises ahead to the extent that I am hesitant to predict the winner," Jacques Myard, former member of the lower house of the French parliament, told Sputnik.

According to Myard, Macron lost some points by starting his campaign very late � in early March � and refusing to debate with other candidates.

"Macron started his campaign very late. He was sure that he would be winning easily," the expert said.

However, a week from the first round on April 10, during one of his rallies, the incumbent president was not all that sure of his easy win saying that "anything is possible," and raising concerns about a Brexit-style election upset.

Myard noted that a crisis in Ukraine and Macron's role as a facilitative mediator from Europe, which seemed to secure additional points for him in the beginning of his campaign, turned out to be a handicap later on as it noticeably distracted him from domestic political, economic and security matters.

Meanwhile, Le Pen started campaigning over six months ago and focused primarily on the economic and social issues which, from Marseilles schoolteacher Ilca Akendengue's point of view, continue to occupy the central place in the country's politics. Le Pen also announced her intention to abolish a number of social benefits for foreigners to give priority to the French in employment and social housing as well as to tighten the migration policy.

Akendengue told Sputnik that Le Pen's strategy for this election changed, becoming less extreme and aimed at winning mainstream support that she was lacking in the past for being associated with the French far-right.

"Marine Le Pen's approach has changed over the years. Her speeches this time around have been lighter," he said.

He added that the recent polls pointed toward a historically low voter turnout.

"That being said, recent opinion polls show that 30 percent of French voters don't want to vote. Most likely, according to the polls, that Emmanuel Macron will be reelected in the runoff against Marine Le Pen. However, many ordinary people in France these days are talking about manipulations with the polls shown on tv in order to influence people's choice," he said.

According to a recent BVA poll, only 71% of those surveyed intended to cast a ballot in the presidential election.

ORBAN'S LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN THE MIX

April's national electoral Calendar this year lists national elections in several European countries, including the recent weekend's votes in Hungary and Serbia. On Sunday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party scored a landslide victory, garnering slightly over 53% of the vote against 35% for the united opposition coalition led by Peter Marki-Zay.

According to the official results in Serbia, President Aleksandar Vucic also easily won a second five-year term in office, while his ruling Serbian Progressive Party took the most votes.

According to Myard, these results expose the critical issues of unity within the European Union and between the bloc and its aspiration on numerous key topics like important geopolitical issues such as Ukraine, sovereign policies, migration and the rule of law. However, he believed it was highly unlikely that the recent wins would affect the electoral face-off in France.

"I will assure you that the results in Hungary and Serbia will have absolutely no impact on what is going to happen during the next weekend in France. The results in Hungary may question the structure of the EU because the victory of Orban is likely to influence and strengthen those who are defending sovereignty, who are for Europe of nations rather than Europe of federation," he explained.

Peter Kreko, a Hungarian economist and political scientist, agreed with Myard, stating during an online event that the vote results in these nations would have no implications in France.

"Even though Orban officially endorsed Marine Le Pen, at the same time, we have seen a surprising rapprochement between Orban and Macron on the issues of nuclear energy. We can assume that Orban may switch to France as a nuclear supplier to substitute Russia's Rosatom," he explained.

In addition to frontrunners Macron and Le Pen, the list of presidential candidates includes Republican candidate Valerie Pecresse, Eric Zemmour of the far-right Reconquete party, far-left politician Jean-Luc Melenchon, Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel, leader of the right-wing France Arise party Nicolas Dupont-Aignan.

Candidate for the Socialists and Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo, candidate from the French Greens Yannick Jadot, a Trotskyist Nathalie Arthaud of the far-left Workers' Struggle party, lawmaker Jean Lassalle and far-left politician Philippe Poutou are also seeking the top post.

The first round is scheduled for Sunday.