ANALYSIS - Thai Opposition Unlikely To Succeed In Forming Democratic Gov't If Wins Sunday's Election

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 23rd March, 2019) The main opposition party in Thailand, Pheu Thai Party, is likely to win the majority of seats in the upcoming general election, but will not be able to form a democratic government, as the country's military junta will seek to hold onto power, experts told Sputnik on Friday.

General elections in Thailand are scheduled to be held on Sunday, for the first time during the five years of military rule. Early voting began on March 17. Nearly 87 percent of the 2.6 million people registered for early voting cast their ballots in the last few weeks.

PHEU THAI PARTY TO WIN MAJORITY

Pavin Chachavalpongpun, an associate professor at the center for Southeast Asian studies of Kyoto University, told Sputnik that Pheu Thai Party could win elections to the Thai House of Representatives as a total of 500 seats will be contested.

"One can say that the [former Prime Minister of Thailand] Thaksin-influenced Pheu Thai Party, could gain more votes due to its past electoral successes," Chachavalpongpun said.

However Eugenie Merieau, a postdoctoral fellow under the Chair of Comparative Constitutionalism at the University of Gottingen told Sputnik said that despite the popularity at the polls of such parties as Pheu Thai Party, founded by former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the electoral system in Thailand leaves the opposition at a disadvantage.

"The pro-Thaksin parties have won every single election since 2001. They will win again and have a majority in parliament, but not an absolute majority. The electoral rules are set up as to have a coalition government - involving the military.

Although the parliament of Thailand is bicameral, only members of the House of Representatives are elected, while 250 members of the nation's Senate have been appointed by the junta.

To gain a majority in the elections and elect a party's candidate as the prime minister, parties need to win 376 seats in the House of Representatives. If the Senate backs pro-military candidates, the ruling Palang Pracharath Party only needs to secure 126 seats in the lower house of the parliament to win a majority.

Merieau added that this existing electoral system would mean that elections in Thailand would be unfair.

"The elections will be free but not fair. The rules of the game have been created to allow the loser at the polls (i.e. the military) to form the government," Merieau said.

Purawich Watanasukh, a research fellow at King Prajadhipok's Institute told Sputnik that other factors, such as an Electoral Commission controlled by the government will mean that the elections will have questionable legitimacy.

"The Election Commission is also questioned on its impartiality and legitimacy as it was appointed by the junta-installed parliament," Watanasukh said.

A total of 52 million Thai nationals will be eligible to vote during these general elections.

POST-ELECTORAL PROTESTS TO USHER DEMOCRACY IN

Watanasukh stated that the elections would likely create a democracy, in which the government would be supervised by the military and the institutions where it has appointed members.

"The 2019 election is not returning Thailand into full democracy. The current constitution ultimately aimed to create a form of 'military-guided democracy' after the election. The junta can still retain its influence and power through the appointed institutions ... who can monitor the elected government to comply with the junta-implemented 20-Year National Strategy," Watanasukh said.

Chachavalpongpun stated that despite the fact that elections were scheduled to be held, the pervasive suppressive political atmosphere in Thailand would not mean a complete return to democracy.

"Not really. This is because the political climate in Thailand has remained suppressive. The constitution has been written to maintain the status quo of the old elites. Until now, pro-democracy parties have continued to be harassed," Chachavalpongpun said, in answer to whether Thailand's elections would result in democracy.

Eugene Merieau said that any push for a more democratic system following the Thai elections would result in a backlash from the military.

"No. There will probably be another coup, either military or judicial or in another form, if elected politicians push for democracy by engaging in institutional reforms such as constitutional revision," Merieau said.

Merieau added, however, that any such backlash from the military would result in a protest action by the country's citizens.

"Politics will probably shift from parliament to the streets and that could be the beginning of a democratic era. Thai people are very skilled at street politics. They have ousted military leaders several times in the past - it can happen again," the expert said.

The prominent rights group, Human Rights Watch, has accused Thailand's military, in a press release published on Tuesday, of devising an election that will perpetuate military rule. The organization has remarked on several issues present in the electoral process including media censorship, an outsized role of a junta-appointed Senate in forming the government, and repressive laws restricting assembly.