ANALYSIS - Turkish-Greek Conflict Unlikely But 'Dangerous' Incidents Possible

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 01st August, 2020) The recent argument between Turkey and Greece over Ankara's seismic activity in the Eastern Mediterranean is unlikely to lead to any hot conflict, but the possibility of "dangerous" incidents remains, experts told Sputnik.

Tensions between Ankara and Athens have been running high after earlier in July, Turkey started seismic research in the area of the Kastellorizo island in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, which Greece views as part of its exclusive economic zone. Ankara said that its Oruc Reis exploration vessel would be stationed in the area, along with another 15 warships. Following this move, the Greek armed forces went on alert across the whole country.

Greece also raised protests in the European Union, NATO, and the United Nations over Ankara's actions. Diplomats from both the United States and Germany have called on Turkey to suspend its planned drilling activity.

However, on Wednesday, Ankara said that it would suspend the geological surveys in anticipation of talks with Athens, adding that Greece was "an important neighbor" and that Turkey was "ready to discuss with it any issues."

Responding to the announcement, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias said that Athens was ready for dialogue with Ankara on a range of issues, although Turkish threats were unacceptable.

Meanwhile, fears about the potential confrontation emerged again on Thursday, after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Ankara planned to carry on with the "work it has started in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean [Sea]."

While tensions still remain high since Turkey only suspended the drilling and not abandoned the plans completely, "a full-scale military confrontation" between Ankara and Athens in the Mediterranean is highly unlikely, Giorgos Kentas, Associate Professor of International politics and Governance at the University of Nicosia, told Sputnik.

"In case Greece and Turkey collide militarily in the Aegean [Sea in the Eastern Mediterranean] their military/aeronautic forces will be on their own. Third states will certainly intervene - and they have intervened in the last couple of months - in order to deescalate the situation, but they will not intervene in support of the one or the other site in case of a collision. Their intention is to prevent an "accident" (a possible incident that would involve the use of force)," he said.

He believes that at some point, the crisis will still end up in a diplomatic initiative.

"The critical question is under what terms a new round of negotiations will take place. Turkey wants to 'create' some new conditions that will yield advantages; Greece wants to demonstrate an ability to prevent/deter/contain and allow no new advantages to Turkey. It's a policy to enforce (by Turkey) vs a policy to deny benefits (by Greece)," Kentas said.

The expert recalled Turkey's drilling operations off the coast of Cyprus and its ships in the eastern Mediterranean despite EU warnings and criticism from a number of nations. In 2019 the EU even imposed some restrictive measures on Turkey, including on Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO).

"EU is offering diplomatic/legal support, but is not an agency that is willing to take serious action and prevent Turkey," Kentas concluded.

WHAT IS HAPPENING IS HIGHLY DANGEROUS

Meanwhile, Ozlem Demirel, a member of the subcommittee on Security and Defence and a member of the Delegation to the EU-Turkey Joint Parliamentary Committee at the European Parliament, also does not believe that there will be a full-scale military confrontation between Greece and Turkey.

"[But] on the other hand, it cannot be ruled out that military incidents may occur. Nevertheless, what is happening now is highly dangerous," she told Sputnik, criticizing the Turkish government for its reliance on military strength in foreign policy.

Any military confrontation between Greece and Turkey would be a "lose-lose" situation for both countries and will have "detrimental effects" on NATO and the European Union, Panayotis Tsakonas, a professor of security studies at the University of Athens and the Head of the Program on Security at Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), told Sputnik.

"With tensions among a series of countries in the Eastern Mediterranean running high over the last two years and as a consequence with the area being turned into a heavily militarized region the possibility of an accident is also high," he admitted.

However, he said that western powers, especially the US, Germany and France, are not interested in "a situation that could be getting out of hand" in the Eastern Mediterranean.

TIES WITH NATO WILL NOT BE DAMAGED ENTIRELY

Ankara's activity in the Mediterranean is another test for its relations with NATO, a member of which Turkey has been since 1952. The relations between Ankara and the alliance have already been strained after Turkey's purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems.

Yet, Turkey remains one of the essential members of the military alliance, Demirel said.

"As far as the alliance constellation of the two countries is concerned: Turkey is also a NATO member and a strategically very important one. Neither the USA nor Germany nor the EU will and can leave Turkey out for long. This is exactly the calculation of the AKP [The Justice and Development Party which is the ruling party in Turkey] government," she said.

Kentas, in his turn, noted that while at the NATO front, things "are certainly more complicated," military relations between Turkey and its allies in the alliance "are not as bad as diplomatic ones."

"Military personnel appear confident with Turkey's geostrategic role and potentials in providing security services to the alliance. Diplomats however appear much less confident with Turkey's new foreign policy and in particular, its approach towards Russia, as well as the course Turkey took in strategic geopolitical crises," he said.

Kentas noted that when it comes to the military alliance, Washington has the Primary role. Yet, according to the expert, while the administration of US President Donald Trump is ready for the continuation of strategic relations with Turkey, things may get different under the new leadership.

"But the question whether Turkey's status in NATO or in its bilateral relationship with the US will be altered dramatically in the foreseeable future is not easy to estimate," he concluded.

Since 2018, the US has introduced a number of measures to pressure the Turkish government into canceling the S-400 purchase, including removing Turkey from the F-35 aircraft supply chain despite the added costs to the program and to US taxpayers. Washington has claimed the S-400 is incompatible with NATO security standards and might compromise the operations of the F-35 jets. Ankara has repeatedly vowed to activate the missile systems, delivered by Russia, despite the US threats of sanctions.

EU MEMBERSHIP NO LONGER STRATEGIC PRIORITY FOR TURKEY

Another bloc, with which Turkey's relations may be challenged is the European Union. Ankara has been negotiating for full membership in the union since 2005, yet the progress was slow. Eventually, the talks have been stalled since 2016.

Turkey's accession to the EU, once a real deal, is now regarded as a very unlikely scenario, keeping in mind the harsh rhetoric of Erdogan on the migrant issue, which many European politicians regard as a blackmailing, a political tool to exert pressure on the bloc.

According to Tsakonas, currently, Turkey is "no more interested" in becoming a member of the EU, while the EU "does not constitute a strategic priority for Turkey."

Kentas, in his turn, noted that for at least 5 years, EU-Turkey relations have been "on constant demise."

"There is no possibility for Turkey to accede the EU. The discussion is on the possibility of a "special" relationship (whatever that could entail, which is uncertain). Turkey is important for some EU states, but some other member states see Turkey as a threat," he said.

When asked about the impact of the Turkish activity on its ascension to the European Union, Demirel said that neither side was honest, adding that such an accession "seems to be far from reality anyway."

"Nevertheless, both sides are interested in keeping up a kind of EU accession talk as through these relations and alleged talks both sides getting the "best" out of it in their own economic and geopolitical interests. But these interests are not necessarily congruent with the interests of the respective populations," she concluded.