RPT: ANALYSIS - Ukraine's Possible Accession To NATO To Take Decades, Depends On Certain Conditions

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 16th July, 2023) Ukraine's possible accession to NATO is likely to take decades and will depend on meeting certain conditions by Kiev, such as the implementation of anti-corruption reforms and the settlement of the conflict with Russia, as well as the political situation in the United States, experts told Sputnik.

As a result of the NATO summit in Vilnius this week, NATO leaders agreed on a package of three elements to bring Ukraine closer to the alliance. The first element includes creating an assistance program for Ukraine that will make transition to NATO standards possible. The second element is the establishment of the NATO-Ukraine Council, and the third one involves the cancellation of the membership action plan for Ukraine, which will shorten Kiev's accession process. However, no official invitation was extended by the bloc to Kiev.

"In principle, it would likely take decades for Ukraine to clear all the hurdles about joining NATO even if there were peace � for example, although corruption is not as bad as in Russia, Ukraine would need to clean that up to join. However, given the circumstances, it is likely that NATO would seek to speed up that process," John Mueller, a political scientist and professor emeritus at Ohio State University, said.

Meanwhile, James Sperling, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Akron, underscored that one of the requirements for joining the alliance is settling all outstanding territorial disputes, which means that Kiev has to either force Moscow to recognize Ukraine's pre-2014 borders and withdraw its troops or reach a territorial settlement with the Kremlin that would serve as a basis for a future relationship between the countries. Some kind of agreement with Russia that would guarantee safe shipping in the Sea of Azov would also be in order, the expert told Sputnik.

"The actual prospect of Ukrainian accession to NATO is a different matter entirely owing to the several issues, the most important of which is the neo-isolationist and Russophile bent of MAGA Republicans. Were (former US President) Donald Trump, for example, re-elected, Ukrainian membership in NATO would be taken off the table for the duration of his administration, and NATO itself would be lucky to survive until the end of it," Sperling stressed.

He went on to suggest that another hurdle that Kiev will have to overcome is a potential veto from the current NATO members, citing the example of Sweden, whose accession was stalled by Turkey and Hungary.

In addition to the package of elements agreed by NATO leaders, the G7 member states also presented during the Vilnius summit the Joint Declaration of Support for Ukraine, which provides for the allocation of additional military equipment, expanded intelligence sharing and new training programs for the Ukrainian military, as well as the development of industrial capacities.

Bearing these factors in mind, Mueller said the meeting in Vilnius effectively had guaranteed that NATO would continue to provide support to Ukraine in the future.

"I think the session essentially gave a security guarantee along the lines of the Partnership for Peace. If a country were to attack Ukraine in the future, it would be reasonable to expect that NATO would respond at least as strongly as it has in the current conflict," Mueller told Sputnik.

Nevertheless, Sperling is convinced that creating another institutional framework, no matter under whose auspices, would "not enhance regional security, guarantee Ukrainian security or deter the Russian Federation in the future," as he put it, adding that only NATO membership for Kiev "can guarantee all three."