RPT: ANALYSIS - US-Iran 'No War, No Peace' To Last For Years, Despite Trump's Remarks On Military Options

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 06th June, 2019) US-Iran relations are likely to remain in limbo for a long time since the level of hostility between the two nations is not enough to embark on a war, but Washington and Tehran still may engage in negotiations to prevent a direct confrontation, experts told Sputnik, commenting on recent statements by the US president on possible military action against Iran.

In an interview on the final day of his visit to the United Kingdom, US President Donald Trump said that there was "always a chance" that the United States may take military action against Iran, noting, however, that he would "much rather talk." US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, in turn, said last week that Washington was open to talks with Tehran without preconditions, but Tehran rejected the offer as a "word-play," reiterating its call on Washington to change its "old erroneous approach."

Commenting on the exchange of statements, Dr. Alam Saleh, a lecturer in middle East politics at Lancaster University, told Sputnik that the two countries were unlikely to either enter peace or start war.

"The level [of] enmity is enough to have no war nor peace, and this situation will continue for years to come," Saleh said.

At the same time, the expert noted that the two countries may ultimately enter some form of negotiations in a bid to prevent any direct conflict.

"There will and there might be negotiations to avoid a direct confrontation, but not a comprehensive agreement on the current tensions between Iran and United States. Both sides know it very well that they are not able ... to enter an open-ended war in the region and each has many reasons why they cannot enter the war no matter how limited or widespread," he said.

In addition to his previous point, Saleh suggested that Iran and the United States both benefited from the current hostility between them.

"On one hand, the United States is keeping its regional allies happy and also trading more weapons [in] the region, and, on the other hand, Iran justifies its internal political and economic deficiencies [by] blaming external threats," the expert explained.

Despite its shift to what appears to be more peaceful rhetoric on Iran, Washington should also consider sanctions relief as part of its strategy to bring the country to the negotiating table, Dr. Seyed Ali Alavi, a teaching fellow in the Department of International Politics at the school of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, told Sputnik.

"The White House has begun softening its rhetoric toward Iran, however, we are yet to see tangible actions in reducing sanctions. The sanctions are harmful to other global powers such as China, Russia and the EU," Alavi said.

Saleh also stressed that Washington needed to change its hawkish approach to the issue.

"Due to lack of trust, Iran will not take any further action until the United States shows a tangible good willing gesture, otherwise Trump's unpredictable political behavior would never convince Tehran to risk siting and negotiating with Trump's administration any time soon," Saleh said.

Pompeo also indicated earlier this week that the United States was ready to conclude a new deal with Iran if the latter was ready to provide guarantees that it would not develop opportunities to produce nuclear arms.

In this regard, Alavi noted that a new bilateral nuclear deal was not only unnecessary but could also undermine the existing multilateral Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the United States withdrew from last year, fueling tensions in the already unstable Middle East.

"Consensual dialogue is possible, however, bilateral deal is not plausible, because the deal was agreed with all signatories including the United States. Having a bilateral deal undermines multipolar agreements and seems unnecessary," the expert stressed.

Many countries have urged the two sides to search for a peaceful solution to the standoff, but numerous media reports have suggested that it will be Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who will get directly involved in mediating efforts when he travels to Tehran later this month. Trump appears to have given a green light to Tokyo's intentions by telling reporters during his state visit to Japan last week that he did not mind the Asian nation's attempt to mediate.

Speaking about Japan's apparent efforts to mediate between the United States, its key military and political ally, and Iran, with which Tokyo has traditionally good relations, Saleh noted that it was "only an attempt to avoid war, no more."

Alavi, on the other hand, pointed out that Tokyo's steps toward a peace resolution may still be somewhat productive.

"Tokyo has a historical positive reputation and image in the region and its endeavours for mediation are likely to be productive to some extent," the expert said.

Tensions between Washington and Tehran have been on edge over numerous factors, one of which has been the United States boosting its presence in the Middle East in what US National Security Adviser John Bolton has called "a clear and unmistakable message" to Iran. In recent weeks, the United States has deployed an aircraft carrier strike group, Patriot missiles, B-52 bombers and F-15 fighters to the region, according to the Pentagon.

Additionally, Tehran announced its decision to suspend some of its obligations under the JCPOA on May 8, exactly one year after Washington's abrupt withdrawal from the agreement, which was signed in 2015 in an attempt to ensure Tehran kept its nuclear program entirely peaceful in return for sanctions relief.

Iran also gave the other signatories to the JCPOA � France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Russia, China and the European Union � an ultimatum, saying it would step up uranium enrichment and stop exporting heavy water in 60 days if they did not shield Tehran from US sanctions. Tehran said the decision was a response to Washington violating the nuclear deal.