German Investor Confidence Gauge Swings Back To Green

A closely-watched gauge of confidence among German financial players returned to positive territory Tuesday after months in the red, although fears linger over trade tensions and an industrial slowdown

Frankfurt am Main, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 10th Dec, 2019 ):A closely-watched gauge of confidence among German financial players returned to positive territory Tuesday after months in the red, although fears linger over trade tensions and an industrial slowdown.

The ZEW institute's monthly barometer measuring expectations for the coming months climbed to 10.7 points, its highest since February 2018 and up 12.8 on November's reading.

"The latest significant increase in economic expectations is surprising at first. It's based on the hope that German exports and private consumption will develop more strongly than had been thought so far," ZEW chief Achim Wambach said in a statement.

Data in recent months have shown activity in Germany's powerful industrial sector stuttering, as slowing global growth and uncertainty have weighed on export-oriented manufacturers.

But November's optimism was "buttressed by a higher-than-expected trade surplus in October, relatively robust growth across the European Union in the third quarter and a stable labour market in Germany," Wambach said.

Germany's own economy dodged a widely-feared second successive quarter of negative growth between July and September that would have placed it in technical recession.

"Scepticism is slowly turning into confidence," analyst Jens-Oliver Nilkasch of LBBW bank commented. "We're working our way out of the growth dip." Still, with none of the threats to industry dispelled -- including US trade confrontations with China and the EU and post-Brexit terms of trade between Britain and the EU still to negotiate -- expansion remains "fragile", Wambach warned.

In its regular survey of around 200 analysts and investors, ZEW found that economic expectations for the 19-nation eurozone had also turned positive again, at 11.2 points.

Meanwhile judgements of the present economic situation in both Germany and the single currency bloc remained negative at -19.9 and -14.7 points, although both improved by just under five points compared with November.