Speakers Flag Growing Regional Coercion, Indian Aggressive Designs Amid Great Power Contestation

ISLAMABAD, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 6th Dec, 2023) The speakers at the Islamabad Conclave's opening panel discussion on Wednesday flagged the growing regional coercion and Indian aggressive designs trampling global treaties and norms, jeopardizing regional peace amid great power contestation.

The Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) has organized the third iteration of its flagship event 'Islamabad Conclave' under the theme "Pakistan in a Changing World", whereas the opening working session was held under the title "Evolving Geopolitical Dynamics, Emerging Technologies, and Shifts in Strategic Thought".

In his keynote address, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), General (R) Zubair Mahmood Hayat, said India, along with the US, Russia, and China, was being dragged as the fourth power in the world as many EU powers shy away from discussing it.

However, he said India had become the diary farm of empires, like Afghanistan as the graveyard of empires, as it was milking every great empire under its hegemonic designs. India, he said, was creating Muslim pogroms under state patronage and committing ethnic cleansing of Muslims with impunity, whereas it had crossed many red lines in the process.

"Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was categorical in saying that the dark clouds of coercion and confrontation are casting their shadows on the Indo-Pacific, which needed attention. Moreover, former US President Barak Obama said if India is not going to protect the ethnic Muslim minority, then it may pull apart," he added.

General (R) Hayat noted that India would become more dangerous in this scenario if it continued its anti-Muslim violence, and Pakistan should prepare itself to cope with such situations in the future.

Explaining the evolution of strategic thought, he said that in times of stability, there was a growth of strategic thought, but in times of crisis, it was stunted because of defensive and coercive thoughts that overtook. However, in times of polycrisis, the survival instincts kick in and overtake the process that put in the law of the jungle, which was a serious situation, he added.

The former CJCSC said, "There was a lack of strategic political leadership at the global level and a lack of political will to find solutions to the pressing issues faced by the world."

"Independence, freedom, liberty, prosperity, and territorial integrity should be navigated through a mindset of power, strength, and mutual respect," he said.

The former Joint Chief explained the great power rivalry between US-China, the Ukraine-Russia War spillover, and the Gaza conflict implications, which are incurring effects on the entire world and communities of nations, including the rise of disruptive technologies like nanotechnology, AI, quantum computing, and robotics that are changing human identity.

Former Foreign Secretary, Ambassador (R) Tehmina Janjua, via videolink, participated in the panel discussion. She said the world in general and the region in particular were facing US-China rivalry and the revival of regional block politics, taking the world back to a bipolar world where the US was a single eminent pole.

"Technology, politics, and climate change are shaping the world and having a major impact on countries' politics and positions.

Moreover, the cutting-edge technologies developed by East Asian countries like China will have an impact on the global order and position of states," she said.

She highlighted, "Climate change can cause uncertainties and uninhabitability amid the food security crisis, among others, at the global scale."

The worsening state of glacial melting and erratic weather patterns were impacting South Asian countries, he added.

"Our dilemma is our close connectivity with the two contesting powers. We need to continue engaging with an approach that is a bridge between the two for positive implications," she added.

Ambassador Janjua noted that the middle East was in flux, whereas the country's biggest challenge emanates from its eastern neighbor, where there was no possibility of any positive gesture.

Former Director General (DG) of ACDA, SPD, and Air Commodore (R) Khalid Banuri said, "The major power rivalries and revival of the arms race have put the world again in critical space."

The world had become more complex, and there was a need to understand the balance and connectivity of it as the global economy had also changed from a materialistic to a knowledge-based economy that was insurmountable through conventional means of arms and aggression, he added.

Executive Director, Strategic Vision Institute (SVI), Dr. Naeem Salik, said the South Asia region has a structured problem, namely due to the huge disparity between larger and smaller states based on size and capacity, particularly in India, the Maldives, and Pakistan.

He added that the prevailing regional scenario was more focused on the India-China rivalry, which shelved the issues arising between Pakistan and India.

Additional Secretary, MoFA, Muhammad Kamran Akhar, said there was an arms race in South Asia threatening the deterrence capability of the regional states, whereas a lack of effective use of communication channels for strategic communication exposed ineffective systems, especially during the incidental fire of the Brahmos Missile 2022 and the Pulwama Incident.

He added that there had been a marked increase in the testing of missiles by India since 2016, while it was establishing new plutonium facilities beyond the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) thresholds.

"We offered a strategic stability regime to India, including a nuclear control regime and conflict resolution mechanisms, but received a cold shoulder response. However, the Indian claims of regional security do not match the on-ground realities," he added.

Akhtar mentioned that a stable state should not be impacted by political and technological impacts, whereas political developments do impact strategic stability.

"We are working on socioeconomic development and interested in achieving strategic stability in the region, which cannot be achieved alone without a partner. The erosion of international treaties by India will have a trickle-down effect on the region," he added.