ANALYSIS - US Likely To Ignore Turkey's Ground Operation In Northern Syria To Avoid Escalation

MOSCOW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 11th December, 2022) Washington is likely to ignore Turkey's possible ground operation in northern Syria to avoid escalation, while also minimizing any risks to US troops deployed in the region, experts told Sputnik.

Over the past months, Turkey has been mulling the idea of conducting a large-scale ground operation in the border region between Turkey and Syria against the Kurdish People's Defense Units (YPG) and militants from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), both outlawed in Turkey. Following Ankara's air operation against the PKK in northern Syria and Iraq in November, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan mentioned the possibility of conducting an additional ground operation soon.

Turkish media reported that the US continued to support the PKK by resuming joint patrols in the border area and arming Kurds there, which sparked talks about increasing tensions between Ankara and Washington. In early December, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin already expressed his concern that Ankara's increasing military activity in Syria could threaten US forces in the region.

"Turkey wants the US completely out of Syria and has already seen how Washington prefers to appease Erdogan rather than confront him. The red line for Washington is likely to be any risks from a Turkish operation to US troops on the ground in Syria rather than whether or not the Syrian Kurds suffer," Gareth Jenkins, a non-resident senior research fellow with the Joint Center Silk Road Studies Program and Turkey Center at the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm, explained.

Huseyin Bagci, president of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute and professor of international relations at the middle East Technical University in Ankara, shared the opinion, noting that the US wants to avoid any escalation with Turkey and will likely refrain from taking decisive action in response to a ground operation in Syria.

"No escalation is needed. Americans will close one eye to the operations," Bagci said, though added that such a military operation "will not be carried out soon."

Before launching an offensive, the Turkish government should also take into account the position of other key players in the region, namely, Russia and Iran, the experts told Sputnik. Moscow has repeatedly urged Ankara not to conduct an operation as it poses a risk to the stability of the entire Middle East.

Speaking about Russia's role in Turkey's military planning in Syria, Jenkins said that he would be surprised if "Turkey launches a major operation into northern Syria without a green light from Russia in particular."

"There is a sense in Ankara that Russia is distracted by what is happening in Ukraine and that this puts Turkey in a stronger position.

But I still think it is unlikely that Erdogan would risk angering Moscow," Jenkins said.

At the same time, Bagci believes that neither Russia nor Tehran would be able to dramatically change Turkey's plans regarding the Syria operation.

"Iran and Russia cannot stop the operation, but they would say only: 'We disagree...' Turkey would undertake military operation one-sidedly if the other countries do not help to clean the areas from terrorists in the region. Turkey's will to fight terrorism seems very strong and determined to pay the price whatever it costs," Bagci said.

Russia is also playing a part in another development concerning Turkey and Syria, with Moscow showing willingness to provide a platform for a meeting between Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar Assad. The Turkish president, in turn, said that such meeting is possible. Bagci also positively assessed the prospects of Syrian-Turkish relations.

"Normalization of ties with Syria will speed up. The government is in need to talk to Damascus. The question is whether Damascus is willing to talk," Bagci said.

According to Jenkins, by restoring relations with Damascus, Turkey's leader expects that "the Syrian government will crack down on the Syrian Kurds." However, this option could entail some domestic problems for Turkey, he added.

"Any restoration of ties with Damascus will aggravate already extremely strained ties between Ankara and the jihadists who predominate in the Turkish-occupied areas of Syria. Ultimately they are a much bigger threat to Turkey's domestic security than the Syrian Kurds," Jenkins told Sputnik.

The rapprochement with Syria is not the only challenge for Erdogan domestically, Jenkins remarked.

"The Turkish economy is a shambles. Living standards are falling. Erdogan has failed to deliver on the dreams he promised when the AKP took office 20 years ago. Erdogan is now dependent for his political survival on the politics of fear. When he doesn't have a real security threat to his regime, he invents one. If he stops portraying the Syrian Kurds as a threat to national security, he have to invent an alternative," Jenkins said.

This rationale for the military action in Syria, however, will likely affect the scale of Turkey's possible offensive there, the expert noted.

"If Turkey does launch a new operation, it is likely to be a relatively minor one into less populated areas. Being aggressive is useful for Erdogan ahead of the elections in 2023 but he cannot afford to risk Turkey becoming bogged down in prolonged urban warfare," Jenkins said.