Discovery Of Undeclared N.Korean Missile Site Unlikely To Disrupt 2nd Trump-Kim Summit
Fahad Shabbir (@FahadShabbir) Published January 22, 2019 | 11:47 PM
The discovery of a North Korean missile headquarters, undeclared by Pyongyang, is unlikely to hamper ongoing negotiations between the United States and North Korea on planning a second summit between their leaders, experts told Sputnik
Researchers from Beyond Parallel, a project sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a US-based defense think tank, released a report on Monday, detailing a secret ballistic missile base known as the Sino-ri Missile Operating Base in North Korea, which had not been disclosed by Pyongyang. The report alleged that the base, which is reportedly one of approximately 20 secret missile operating bases in North Korea, serves as a missile headquarters.
The report came shortly after US President Donald Trump had talks with North Korea's nuclear envoy last week, and announced the second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
"We had a very good meeting yesterday with North Korea. That was an incredible meeting. It lasted almost two hours. And we've agreed to meet sometime, probably at the end of February. We've picked the country, but we'll be announcing it in the future," Trump told reporters.
Despite the fact that the existence of the undeclared missile headquarters could contradict Kim's pledge toward complete denuclearization made during his first meeting with Trump in June, the US president is unlikely to change his mind about holding a second summit with the North Korean leader in light of the report, political analysts argued.
"I don't think the revelation is going to prevent the [second US-North Korean] summit from taking place. That's because Trump is pretty much determined to hold the summit. I don't think he is going to seriously weigh in this report from CSIS, which has a track record of claiming North Korea is working on its missiles," Kim Jae-chun, an international relations professor at Sogang University in Seoul and a former South Korean government adviser, told Sputnik.
The expert added that the CSIS report should not be viewed as a surprise.
"We all pretty much guessed or knew that North Korea is still working on missiles somewhere, although we don't know exactly where. North Korea only declared a moratorium of testing those missiles. The revelation didn't really come as a big surprise," he said.
Other experts pointed out that North Korea never explicitly promised to suspend the research and development of its missiles program.
"North Korea has never openly promised to suspend the research, production and deployment of its missiles program.
During his New Year Day speech this year, Kim Jong Un only stated he has promised to halt the production of nuclear weapons. The question is whether missiles are included as part of its nuclear weapons. Regarding to North Korea's missiles program, both sides have never reached any agreement. That's why there's no excuse to blame North Korea for continuing producing and maintaining its missiles and related facilities," Zhao Tong, a fellow in Carnegie's Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing, told Sputnik.
The Beijing-based researcher believes the discovery of the undeclared missile headquarters is unlikely to have a big impact on the decisions of the Trump administration.
"In general, with more similar information being revealed, Trump definitely faces more and more pressure. But this is not the first time such information is being publicized. There have been reports of North Korea continuing to expand its intercontinental ballistic missile bases, which are much more important and sensitive. Such information did seem to trigger a strong reaction [from Trump]," he said.
During the second US-North Korean summit, instead of chasing the goal of getting North Korea to provide a complete list of its nuclear arsenal and previously undeclared missile bases, it would be more realistic for Trump to secure pledges from Pyongyang to allow independent inspection of its existing nuclear facilities and verify the progress of denuclearization, Professor Kim from Sogang University suggested.
"During the summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in September 2018, Kim Jong Un hinted at the possibility of having [the dismantle of] Punggye-ri nuclear testing site verified, as well as dismantling the Dongchang-ri missile testing site and the Yongbyon nuclear facility. I think those three items can be on the negotiation table," he said.
The scholar added that the Trump administration would declare the second summit with Kim Jong Un a political victory, if it can convince Pyongyang to allow international inspectors to verify its denuclearization process.
In May 2018, North Korea invited foreign journalists to witness the destruction of the Punggye-ri nuclear testing site. But critics argued that the process was not fully verified, because international nuclear experts were not allowed to examine the site after the alleged destruction.
According to media reports, the second summit between Trump and Kim could take place in Vietnam, which is in discussion with both sides on hosting the meeting.
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