US GDP Grew 3.4 Pct In Q3, Held Down By Falling Exports
Fakhir Rizvi Published December 21, 2018 | 10:25 PM
Washington, (UrduPoint / Pakistan Point News - 21st Dec, 2018 ) :US growth in the July-September quarter was slightly slower than previously reported, dragged down by the large drop in exports amid President Donald Trump's multi-front trade wars, according to government data released Friday.
With hundreds of billions of goods hit by retaliatory tariffs, US exports fell by the largest amount since early 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis.
Gross domestic product expanded by 3.4 percent in the third quarter rather than the 3.5 percent previously reported, due in large measure to the 4.9 percent drop in exports, five-tenths more than the Commerce Department originally estimated.
Goods exports dropped 8.1 percent, the biggest decline since the first three months of 2015, according to the report, the third and final reading on third quarter GDP.
Trump's aggressive trade policies, and especially the tariff retaliation from China, has impeded exports, with soybean sales nearly grinding to a halt. The strong US Dollar also has made American goods more expensive.
The dispute with China, even with a cease fire declared until March 1 for negotiations, has created fears of slowing US and global growth, and caused stock markets to retreat, with Wall Street wiping out all of the 2018 gains.
The sentiment is not helped by the Federal Reserve's signal that it expects to continue to raise the benchmark interest rate, albeit at a slower pace.
"Moderation in growth is likely to be led by manufacturing ... as manufacturing is more exposed to weakening foreign demand," said Jim O'Sullivan of High Frequency Economics.
The smaller rise in consumer spending, largely the result of lower fuel costs, also contributed to the downward revision to GDP growth, the Commerce Department said.
Meanwhile, residential investment fell 3.6 percent, only partly offset by 1.1 percent gain in non-residential, or business, investment, data borne out by the slowdown in home construction and sales.
Other data show fourth quarter growth is shaping up to be even more sluggish. Purchases of durable goods -- big ticket items like appliances, vehicles and machinery -- rose in November compared to October, but much less than expected.
Orders were up 0.8 percent last month, less than half the increase economists had forecast, according to a separate Commerce Department report. That follows a big drop in October, and will drag on GDP in the final quarter of 2018.
Excluding transportation goods, durable goods orders fell 0.3 percent compared to October, and when defense is removed, the drop was 0.1 percent.
Orders are still 8.4 percent higher than they were through November 2017, but havebeen on a declining trend for three months.
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